That high to the north is critical. Even though the shortwave was more amped this run, the isobars from the high sagged to the south more which led to a colder solution.
I hate to say it but the GFS is out to lunch. It weakens the energy for no apparent reason which leads to a more strung-out and progressive solution. At the same time, I also think the NAM is too amped.
I’m liking a CMC/Euro type solution right now.
The GFS is nice but I’m suspicious with how weak it looks at 500mb. I think it’s up to its old tricks and moving the storm east off the coast too quickly.
Short range models are very interesting for the Lehigh Valley. Looks like we could see actual tropical storm force winds (not gusts) for a short time tomorrow. Which makes sense given that Isaias made landfall stronger than expected. Hoping the power stays on at home and work.