paweather

JM welcome back to the forum it has been awhile. 

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

I'd love for that to verify for you guys who live south of I-80, but places like UNV and definitely AOO are living on the edge with the warm layer aloft for a time. Models are showing a real pounding for a good few hours on the front end which can hopefully keep the heavy sleet to maybe Rt 22 and south, but if the warmer models are right, it would cut back quite a bit up to I-80 and even up to IPT. I could see the 14-15" being predicted for State College if the heavy snow comes in fast like a wall and the warmth can be held at bay, but I can also see it being 7-9" of quicksand from a surging warm layer. I'm really not seeing how Harrisburg gets 8". Hopefully I'm wrong and it's an overproducer, but I've gotten burned a few times on these storms when I lived in State College in the mid-late 2000s. 

at least they made a call. Geez everyone is such a backstreet QB. My goodness. I actually love the fact they made a call on what they think will happen. This is not taking models straight to what that may say. 

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

In reality no matter what the LP does and when, I think we now need to look at thermal profiles and climo blend (like Horst does well) and try to figure in what happens and where. CAD and WAA will be our battle and as so many are so close, a subtle shift may make or break someone’s forecast.  Look at 700/ 850/925’s and you should be able to come to your own conclusions. Toggle thru prior runs to see trends. You can also get better profile view from soundings on pivotal for your area. They help to show depth of WAA or CAD. 

Your exactly right, Nut. 

10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

That is concerning as we are inside 24. Tells me that it is still uncertain as to when the transfer to southern slide happens. Not sure what that does to forecasts ir WAA. 

Yeah frustrating this late in the game models don’t know what to do. This is 2019 not 1989.

If the NAM is right we get greater than 5” in 4 hours. LOL heavy snow inbound 

I see Matt is in here love you guys from WGAL good luck tomorrow, should be a fun day

7 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Somebody better bless them. 

The Funny thing is no one knows who is going to be right zero Consensus 

NAM time soon

3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

To this point, the dew points for noon tomorrow are terrible on the HRRR.  Have not used it much for DP before so maybe someone can chime in and suggest whether its temp forecasts are reliable.  Hopefully not.  

 

 

 

NWS point and click has me low of 27 high of 31 tomorrow. With 4-8” of snow interesting. Somehow the cold air stays locked in or there will be a big bust. 

Just now, bubbler86 said:

To this point, the dew points for noon tomorrow are terrible on the HRRR.  Have not used it much for DP before so maybe someone can chime in and suggest whether its temp forecasts are reliable.  Hopefully not.  

 

 

 

And that’s not good. 

Kinda of warm tonight. Hope we can get those lows down as low as we can go. 

Penn Live on FB an hour ago taunting a foot of snow in MDT. :-)  

GFS is still way to warm for LSV. Gotta start looking at the short term models. 

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Honestly, what is the percentage of big storms that hit on weekends? It's incredible. I can remember 2/10/2010 being midweek, but we sure have gotten most on weekends.

YOU GOT IT. Pretty cool. 

20 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Just says that final solution is still "up in da air"  

If we win, I think we win because of cold dome and the wall it creates.  HP never dove in... and it fed from out front and caused less dig.  Just my thoughts

edit, some others likely have said similar things so credit gets shared by others...not just me.  I've just been on that train from the get go.

yep me too. Not so much during the day dang management meetings! LOL

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

All joking aside, no matter how it shakes out....

This is a lot of fun (and likely more than I should be having while working). 

Thank god i can multitask.  When I cant, I'll probably not be able to sell....so I'll just sit here and talk weather w/ you weenies.

The great thing it is a weekend superstorm and we can enjoy it without working!

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

wanna hug.....

hug this

LOL. Exactly. 

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

most definitely something to be nervous about buying into.  To your point it could be back in N WVA tonight and wrecks the mids earlier, and we rain.  CTP's update (from Mag) gives cautious optimism that the big guns are behind and in support of the front line weenies wishes for better down here.

Great points Bubbler and nut. These models have been all over the place. CMC early on was warm, now colder more snow. GFS/EURO warm but out of the mid-long range period for this storm. NAM overdone as always but cold solution. There is not one consensus agreement with models. other than Northern PA will get hit hard. This is fun should be a great Saturday to watch it unfold grab a drink(s) and see what happens. 

..WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 6 to 10 inches, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch are expected. * WHERE...South central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday. Heavy snow will move into the area Saturday afternoon and last into the late evening. A change to sleet and freezing rain will occur during the night. The heaviest of the snow will be from early afternoon through late evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. Precipitation will taper off around sunrise Sunday, but the wind will become stronger and cold air will drop the wind chills and produce blowing snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Just now, bubbler86 said:

GFS is somewhat similar to icon's progression.  All 3 0Z runs so far are not far off on their low placements.  Playing into bias the NAM is extra juiced like usual.

yep so close no doubt. That high earlier in the week was 1039 now 1034. Need to keep the strength of that. for LSV this is a snow, ice, (maybe rain) back to snow 4-8". 

If anyone thinks this is over not even close. I do like Horst and glad he is sticking to what he said almost a week ago. But I don't want to forecast this. Literally GFS is a tick transfer away from being a bomb for most of PA. 

Toast but nice front end thump om the GFS so close though...……..this is going to be a rollercoaster the next couple of days. 

GFS = sorry. You can look at Canada and it is writing on the wall. 

the first weak storm became a convoluted mess. 

6 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Yea I was speaking for Pitt specifically.  

yeah saw that sorry.