paweather

EURO time.

Bubbler was about right 5-7" initial thump on the 12z Globals.

Yeah not buying that at all. I think per GFS and Para they get a front end thump that is good for us. This low is coming north and attacking the high to our north. There is no suppression worries at least right now. It is actually a good sign to see the level of cold air drawn down into the MA.

Para looks to be the same as the GFS.

I guess it is time to look beyond this week?

yeah sleet/ice. I'll take it all just will be a concrete yard better than dang wet. :-)

Nice Snow map LOL. Let's hope!

Flip at 0z on the GFS. but a good front end thump I would think.

The ICON is nicely on board for Thursday so that should make everyone happy now!

Yep. What was modeled last week with the Monday/Tuesday system isn't now. This low cuts west and that is a given for warm air in PA.

WOW.

The ICON is a good ole fashion rainstorm tonight and tomorrow.

Between the Globals and HI-Res models it is ridiculous right now in differences.

When in doubt turn to the ICON.

We talked about this last week, I think, living on the edge of p types. It is going to come down to game time with these models it is the winter pattern of sorts with them.

Road Trip to Detroit tonight?

NAM is a big dry slot so lets just move on to Thursday.

Fun winter week!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 346 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021 PAZ033>036-056>059-063-150900- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0006.210215T2100Z-210216T1800Z/ Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon- Cumberland- Including the cities of Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, and Carlisle 346 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of one tenth to two tenths of an inch, with locally greater than a quarter of an inch, mainly over the higher terrain. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The best potential for sustained freezing rain is Monday night.

We are now under a WSW

OK let’s hope for better trends today on both systems this week.

It just can't cut.

This moisture feed reminds of 1993

That 1043H on the GFS could it just be further East? LOL.

Interesting week for sure. I think NW PA is definitely a winner in Snow category and everyone else is just trying to figure out ptypes as it plays out.