paweather

Yep. What was modeled last week with the Monday/Tuesday system isn't now. This low cuts west and that is a given for warm air in PA.

WOW.

The ICON is a good ole fashion rainstorm tonight and tomorrow.

Between the Globals and HI-Res models it is ridiculous right now in differences.

When in doubt turn to the ICON.

We talked about this last week, I think, living on the edge of p types. It is going to come down to game time with these models it is the winter pattern of sorts with them.

Road Trip to Detroit tonight?

NAM is a big dry slot so lets just move on to Thursday.

Fun winter week!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 346 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021 PAZ033>036-056>059-063-150900- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0006.210215T2100Z-210216T1800Z/ Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon- Cumberland- Including the cities of Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, and Carlisle 346 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of one tenth to two tenths of an inch, with locally greater than a quarter of an inch, mainly over the higher terrain. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The best potential for sustained freezing rain is Monday night.

We are now under a WSW

OK let’s hope for better trends today on both systems this week.

It just can't cut.

This moisture feed reminds of 1993

That 1043H on the GFS could it just be further East? LOL.

Interesting week for sure. I think NW PA is definitely a winner in Snow category and everyone else is just trying to figure out ptypes as it plays out.

Understood.

Yep. I was and again need to be reminded (Thank You) That in years past the EURO was or seemed to always be the king in winter times patterns so I need to make sure I don't get sucked into it as I was in the past with what it is showing.

But I'll take the ICON here as long as that 1034 H stays put up there.

I didn't say it showed Ice. But I think you mean the opposite. The ICON does show ICE due to temps but it doesn't correlate that into the model run for the LSV.

The NAM at 18z was a big dry slot mess.

True. I just think when you look at this week overall every model is all over the place. 18z ICON is a rain storm for the LSV Monday/Tuesday.

yeah we always knew for a long time that the long range NAM is not to be trusted.

I don't think any model this winter has been performing well, this pattern has these models all screwed up.

18z NAM was like move on to Thursday just the winter model chaos we continue to see.