The next name on the Weather Channel's annual Winter storm name's list is Winter Storm Harper, he is currently badgering the West Coast of the US. Models bring his heavy precipitation and moisture to the New England area in the form of snow for most, and snow/rain mix southeast of BOS to Hartford line. My snow map is the latest blend of guidance, and if the UKMET solution is right, I could be bust pretty low on the South Coast of MA, RI, and CT and it could be in the form of all snow in which 24-36" amounts would be plausible from NYC to BOS. I hope for that solution, but I think it might be warm enough for a change to rain and so I am going conservatively with a 3-6" amount from New London, CT to Cape Cod, MA. The map is pretty self-explanatory. Oh, and more historical storms are in the chute.
Models show the next ten days showing about three to four snow events impacting the Northeastern US. Stay Tuned these systems could be all snow producers into March.
Could there be impacts from a nor'easter on Cape Cod on Wednesday night into Thursday? If there will be, it might be shortlived as snow impacts will be light if it occurs. Judging by the model trends tonight, I am growing more confident of an impact, even though less than an inch would be possible unless something large changes like the storm is at the benchmark. H5 has been trending towards a more amped up through the present with an Arctic jet shortwave on the backside of the longwave trough. If this phases we could get a big storm, but right now the Pacific jet shortwave that causes our nor'easter, is just too fast in the flow. Right now the energy is too stretched out now in the long wave trough, however, models are heading towards sharpening up this shortwave energy more and more each run and also going negative sooner more so over DC and not off the coast like yesterday's runs showed. This is a trend now with the 21z SREFs showing precip chances growing. This is a system that I will notify you of if anything changes in the next 24-48 hours.
**signal for a decent moderate snow event is increasing at least for the interior portions of SE MA and the rest of SNE. Cape Cod and the immediate coast is still in question.**
A large long wave troughing pattern is developing in the next 48 hours as a major piece of energy amplifies the trough as it enters the eastern US. Still questions to intensity, track of parent system and lack of cold air source. I will keep you abreast of the situation at hand.
To the greatest of my ability and against all of the obstacles in life in my way, I will get through them all and create the greatest writing company ever known to man.
3z SREFs has a mean snowfall of 6.45" over HYA from tomorrow evening through Monday evening. Some members are over 20" of snow and half are about 12"+, so there is a lot of spread in the means, and plus while the 00z EURO didn't show much precipitation over Cape and Islands, the model did up the ante with the upper level low and the surface low strengthening. Also, the HRRR 6z run shows a lot of lightning developing with the surface low as it reaches the coastline, this could impact the surface low track by pushing it more towards the coastline as it ramps up within the upper-level trough.
Ok the pattern upcoming for the next two weeks is quite simple. Simply put, it remains a negative to neutral PNA, positive NAO and positive AO, this means cold air will continue to filter into the western Canada and Western US, while the eastern US and eastern Canada remain underneath a strong ridge of high pressure with southwesterly winds and warm temperatures. By the end of October, this pattern may switch to more seasonal temperatures showing a cooling trend by the beginning of November. the models show some semblance of a -AO/+PNA pattern emerging in the long range but the NAO remains positive or neutral at best. Time will tell, but we will certainly run into a winter cold snap sometime in the future, perhaps near.
A significant snowstorm is likely for Southern New England on Sunday. Snowfall amounts near 6-10" is likely from NE PA to Boston, MA, on the immediate coastline temps will be closer to freezing so snowfall will be wetter consistency and therefore lesser amounts than slightly inland where I have 6-8" from west of 128 to NYC and Long Island, NY. Snowfall map below:
Fireworks have begun for Tom Brady and his list of WR weapons on the outside. With Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman back yesterday at practice, today the Patriots get tremendous news that Demaryius Thomas has returned to practice after suffering from a horrible Achilles tear injury last season with the Texans. After signing a one-year deal with the Patriots, Thomas has returned to action and is officially taken off the PUP list. This adds another veteran weapon on the outside at a size of 6'3" 220lbs or heavier along with Gordon 6'3" too and N'Keal Harry who is the tallest at 6'4" and 230lbs. That gives them three large bodies, athletic WRs for Brady and the offense. Along with a deep backfield, the TE position is missing one true TE from being a formidable offense this season. Barring any further significant injuries, this team has the ceiling of a perfect season repeat. I believe it is a dumb part of anyone in the prediction business to predict a perfect NFL season, even if the Patriots did it just 12 years ago. It is possible, about a 12 percent chance. I am still on track to deliver my predictions officially by September 5th, they should be posted then, but I will work between 29th to the 4th on this process.
As a weather weenie, what separates our love for the weather from most people on this Earth? What triggers our emotional senses when a snowstorm doesn't go our way? What do we know of ourselves that makes us love the snow? Simply put, it is our passion. We love it as much as the next person loves candy, or his or her Boyfriend or girlfriend. We love the weather because we are passionate about it as much as we are curious when it doesn't follow our projections. So why tell you this? Because it appears in the next ten days, the weather across the northeastern USA is going through a transition period, where for the first six days this week and next week it will remain in the 40s and 50s, then it will take a coastal storm to bring rain at the coastline and snow inland to get us over the hump as a powerful arctic front will trigger temperature swings towards the 60s, then usher in the ARCTIC HOUNDS, because the chill is coming for the foreseeable future. Not only will be in a very cold pattern, we will also be in a stormy wintry pattern favoring snowfall for all of New England even coastal Cape Cod and Nantucket. Here is what I am seeing in the 12z suite this afternoon. First we have a -EPO pattern shaping up across the Eastern Pacific and Alaska were a tremendous polar ridge is setting up in the long term pattern, with the PNA region supporting a positive vibe, so ridging over BC and Western USA, favoring above normal temps in my brother's hometown for now San Diego, CA. Then we have a -NAO pattern regime coming together with the +PNA pattern supporting blocking over the North Atlantic Ocean and Greenland, this will act to amplify and slow down any coastal nor'easters that have the ability to spin up in this pattern. We also have a very negative AO pattern shaping up with a ton of ridging high pressure cells over the arctic circle allowing that arctic air to spill down the backside of the Alaskan polar ridge and into the central and eastern 2/3rds of the nation coming December 7th and beyond. We have at least two snow chances in the long term period from day ten onward. So snow lovers rejoice, our time is coming. Plus a warm GULF STREAM OSCILLATION leads to explosive cyclogenesis and extreme baroclinicity for the Eastern US seaboard, equals major snowstorms. Good luck!
This is the current thinking I wanted to show regarding this late week snowstorm threat from the 15th to the 16th of November. Here is the snow map first call.
Upper-level jet stream dives southward from Southern Canada into the northern tier of the CONUS. Both jet streams potentially combine to produce a heavy QPF producing storm system with all types of precipitation. Jet stream favors a -AO/+PNA/-NAO pattern which remains extremely favorable for winter storms to impact the Northeastern US. Stay tuned, the next ten days could feature a very impactful set of three storms.
I don't have the time or drive to do predictions for the next seasons in the NBA and NFL this weekend, with the importance of Red Sox games and the tropical weather heating up as the date for the average first hurricane is AUG 1st, so the climo peak is coming in another 5 to 6 weeks, I will be quite busy with the weather. I will have the predictions done before September 1st.
Hey everyone,
I am in the workings of creating a creative business that focuses on ideas and making them into stories to tell the world. I am focused on working on a novel and get that published first. I have a partner now. Not official yet, but in the process of working the kinks out. We are going to make a novel series and perhaps make movies after each novel in the franchise that now has a name, "The Awakening Dawn" series. Each of the three novels has titles now, they are still working titles, and are subject to change. 'The Awakening Dawn" 9Book one), "From Dawn Until Dusk" (Book Two), "The End of the Awakening" (Book Three). These novels will continue the story of the main characters, Jack Irving (25 year old hurricane specialist), Abi Acheson/Irving (Jack's fiancee in book one and wife throughout the rest of the story), Michael Reed (Jack's best friend since Kindergarten) and Marie Givens (Mike's girlfriend and wife later on and bosses daughter in book one). Secondary characters who appear in every novel: Jack's family members: Daniel Irving (Brother), Sarah Irving (sister, unsure her future), Siobhan Irving (Jack's youngest sister), Edith Irving (Jack's mother, dies from pancreatic cancer in book one), William Irving (Jack's father, lives in all three books). Other characters include Abi's best friend and secretary, USAF Reserve 53rd WRS hurricane hunter pilot Major/Lt. Colonel Brooks Carter and his crew. And others...
Next project and potential big-time franchise novel/movie series...
'The Terroristic Behavior Series"
This is a story about a duel between a CIA trained assassin turned into terror suspect who terrorizes the US's world interests, many mysteries exist and are unraveled as the story goes on as former terror expert and ghost hunter, FBI special agent Sebastian Jenkins who is recently divorced and has three children. He is hired by the FBI again or transferred to GHOST PROTOCOL. He is hunting a person the government of the US considers a ghost. The story lasts three novels and shows potential to become a big-time movie franchise. Characters include Carter Avril - ghost, and Sebastian Jenkins Ghosthunter. Still a work in progress in terms of character development and story development.
There are other individual projects considered as well that could provide to the workload. This is for the far future to determine.
James Warren Nichols/Kyle Bass
I could see how Cape Cod could end up with more snow from both systems than say Springfield MA if the coastal storm on Wednesday takes a more southeasterly path
Final Snow Map issued. Round 2 has a lot of evolution questions right now and is not smart to try and determine what happens there. long duration Nor'easter. Dangerous weather impacts likely ahead.
Today is January 24th, 2019, and we could have our first severe wind threat of the year. Models are forecasting a very intense, somewhere around 4 above standard deviations of a low-level jet stream intensity. 100-knot is very anomalous for a low-level jet strength. If convection can tap into this jet stream at 2000 to 5000 feet, than we can see damaging winds above 90mph enter the region sometime after 18z today. Be tuned into the timing of the passage of the severe cold front, as these storms could be tornadic, but most likely damaging wind threat. Stay tuned!
While category five hurrianes are currently categorized at catastrohic (category five hurricane status these days) 156mph winds, these hurricanes develop with 85F+ wate temperatures, what if unforeseen circumstances bring these water temperatures to 95-97F, just a ten to twelve degree warming could lead to hurricanes with winds over 250 miles per hour. This is trule a catastrophic level. My novel includes the intensity of these monsters in the hurricane seasons of 2029 and 2030. Could geolgical events in the Atlantic Ocean lead to such destructive hurricanes in the future? Why not?
This morning, I am going to share with you why a snow event is possible and not yet certain....
Why it is possible...
NAO is in transition still positive but diving towards neutral slowing duration of the precipitation and storm's movement based upon phasing and capture potential at H5
PNA/EPO coupled ridging over the western CONUS could lead to an earlier phase potential as the northern stream disturbance is shoved southward across the Midwest and OH Valley regions allowing a cold infusion of air before the storm reaches our latitude.
-AO transition, as the EPO/PNA ridge builds poleward and allows the northern stream to dig southward across the central US, this also builds into the western Arctic Circle and disrupts the Polar Vortex and the +AO domain and turns towards a -AO domain allowing the arctic jet to become involved in the weather next week producing another chance at a storm or two
Again questions remain in the details and eventual A)/NAO domains, we will get help with that in the next 24 hours.
This is my only snowfall map for the Noreaster of March 7-8th 2018. Thundersnow is apparent in NJ and NYC and especially in the warm conveyor belt south of SNE where lightning is immense underneath very cold cloud tops where convection is. these heavier snow rates will bring down the cold air from the 850mb layer of the atmosphere and lead to potential snowfall over the Cape and Islands tonight the R/S line will crash southeast as the surface low is forecasted to move southeast of Nantucket and Chatham and is being reported as east of the 20z analysis of the 12z/18z NAM runs and 12z RGEM run, this should bode well for the Cape and Islands as this will keep the 925mb 0C line southeast of the area and should promote dynamic cooling to the surface, we shall see, otherwise there is another nor'easter on the models for Monday of next week that looks a little more dangerous than this storm tonight. We shall see! Current observations: Harwich, MA 38F temp, ENE wind gusty, and raining
Check out my recent work, my novel draft and my short story. I want to publish them both soon.
Hurricane Hunter Short Story.docx
A day of Rest, chapter one.docx
A lot of signs point to a potentially damaging wind event, right now parameters are not as supportive as we want, but models show storm potential as a monster low makes it path across ME into the Gulf of Maine. Could be quite strong winds in convection and then the backside of the low could deliver very cold air and winds off the ocean. Also, our prayers go out for Jefferson City, MO residents and everyone who has gone through these tornadoes yesterday and this morning.
I have two scenario maps for this weekend's storm, moderate snowfall likely, while big storm potential exists, the potential is very small at this time. 3-6" seems best snowfall predictions.