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USCAPEWEATHERAF

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  1. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    This is my only snowfall map for the Noreaster of March 7-8th 2018.  Thundersnow is apparent in NJ and NYC and especially in the warm conveyor belt south of SNE where lightning is immense underneath very cold cloud tops where convection is.  these heavier snow rates will bring down the cold air from the 850mb layer of the atmosphere and lead to potential snowfall over the Cape and Islands tonight the R/S line will crash southeast as the surface low is forecasted to move southeast of Nantucket and Chatham and is being reported as east of the 20z analysis of the 12z/18z NAM runs and 12z RGEM run, this should bode well  for the Cape and Islands as this will keep the 925mb 0C line southeast of the area and should promote dynamic cooling to the surface, we shall see, otherwise there is another nor'easter on the models for Monday of next week that looks a little more dangerous than this storm tonight.  We shall see!  Current observations: Harwich, MA 38F temp, ENE wind gusty, and raining

  2. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    This map is the combined storm threats the next four days, I included the Thursday storm because I believe that the models will come northwest with the coastal storm on Thursday enough to add a few inches to the forecast for Cape Cod.  I believe 12"+ will occur on the Cape, south and north shores of Boston, MA as this is combining all three events which it looks like all three will contribute 3-6" of snow to this part of the region.  Most of the rest of the region will be 6-9 or 9-12" from the Wednesday event alone.  Coastline gets their snow Wednesday into Thursday from two likely different events

  3. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    SO the models are showing frigid air entering the northern Plains sometime in the next ten days and that cold air filters into the eastern US by day 13-16, which is the 27th and beyond of October.  We could be seeing a change to much colder air eventually as winter gets closer.  Most of our storms this winter will be from the Oh Valley to the Mid Atlantic coastal storm tracks, signifying that miller Bs and not Miller As will be the normalcy this winter.
  5. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Models are beginning to show signs of a potential winter storm in the 6-8 day period.  EURO and GGEM show this storm impacting SNE, with ocean effect snows and synoptic precip, the GGEM is a little warmer than the 00z EURO, which shows this potential as a trough swings through the upper level flow.  I have been keying on this potential as there appears to be a Quebec, Canada Arctic high in place north of the storm and north of NYS.  This will lock in the cold air at the surface into the coastline.  GFS is finally showing snow precip accumulating for CHH.  There is a strong potential for a storm center on the East Coast, but that is where the forecast departs on the model guidance.  Stay tuned!
  7. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    If you heard the names of Franklin, Gert and Harvey, you would think, hey those are just general names and nothing bad to think about here, but you put a hurricane in front and now you have, Hurricane Franklin, Hurricane Gert, and Hurricane Harvey, now you have built in fear.  What if the US was in an unprecedented times, the weather was king and the oceans were warming without the impacts of global warming, nope Solar radiation was normal, so it can be that, no what if you were a meteorologist in the year 2029, trying to figure out the forecast number of intense hurricanes to form without the knowledge of why the ocean was warming into the 90-95F range from Puerto Rico westward to the US coastline throughout the Gulf Stream?  You would only figure out the warming cause after the season was over, when no one was no longer in danger of hurricanes.  The result is three super intense, super insane category six hurricanes with winds sustained over 200mph, gusts near 250-300mph, with Gert the most intense near 255mph sustained wind field at the core making landfall on SE Florida, Miami ground zero, then all three cat six hurricanes make landfall on separate areas of the US coastline within 36 hours of time.  This is a tremendous story of man versus mother nature.  I hope you want to read something awesome.  I will attach it below.  thanks!
    - James Warren Nichols Productions
    Dawn Awakening, Opening Segment.docx
  8. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Without a true marine layer influence this late summer day, we could see a major severe weather outbreak late on Friday night.  Shear and instability need to be checked but models show a very potent upper level low traversing the region late Friday afternoon swinging a cold front which will bring below normal temperatures through the area later this weekend into the early weekdays.  Stay tuned and listen to the latest from your NWS WFO.
  10. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Latest forecasts show the development of invest 94L, designated this as such due to the fact it is an area of interest the NHC has designated for a more thorough investigation with models and other observations are allowed to take place.  The designation is assigned a number 90 through 99 and then is recycled through and through.  Since the areas are only investigation numbers, they would rather recycle through the same numbers than confuse everyone about them.  94L is a system about 100 or so miles east of the central Bahamas.  People traveling to the Bahamas, Florida and then the rest of the immediate Southeast US coast, need to watch the potential progress and development if it occurs with this system.  Impacts could be felt in the Bahamas as soon as tomorrow afternoon and along the Florida coast as soon as Tuesday morning.  Please stay safe, that is and shall always remain your one and only priority in these situations as your possessions can be replaced, your life or the life of a loved one cannot.
  11. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Somewhere in the pattern fluctuations, there is the potential for a snowstorm for Mid Atlantic and the Northeast come next week, after Monday or maybe on Monday the 25th, Christmas day onward as an arctic air mass invades from the central us towards the East Coast.  Teleconnections support a three day period for a snowstorm on the coast from about the 24th to 27th that week.  The pattern evolves to support a +PNA/-NAO and -AO all line up for a coastal storm, it could be a big QPF producer and maybe not much of a wind producer, but we will deal with that when the time comes.  Just know the period exists for a potential storm.
  13. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    "Dawn Awakening: The Apocalypse is Now", is a heart wrenching tale about the end of the world through the study of geology.  Together we will experience, life, death and destruction of the world in a process known as the, "Earth Core Pulse", a theory I created on an epic energetic pulse of ultimate energy emanating from the Earth's Core throughout the faults of the Earth, and where it all starts, the Philippines, explodes into dust and heat is generated throughout the oceans as various earthquakes erupt along the fault lines of the Earth.  This novel will be such an experience, that this author has never written before in his lifetime, it will be a journey through the characters that has never happened before in our lifetimes.  This story will bring heartache, suspicion, suspense, heroic behavior and the ultimate giving of sacrificing one's life for the better good, for the ultimate good, in saving a person's life, putting a person's life ahead of their own safety.  The ultimate sacrifice.  Our hero Jack and heroine Abi, take us on an adventure, one only dreams of in the end, and today that journey begins.  I cannot wait to give you this novel, because I want to surprise the world with my talents as a tremendous author with the talents of a great writer.  This novel will prove that to the reader.  You will want to continue to read my novels as they will be better and better, filled with tremendous action.  Good luck, this might take me a full year to work on from now until Thanksgiving 2018.  I will cherish this journey, because I want it to be the best out there ever.
  14. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The next four days present an unique challenge for weather forecasters.  Models present a blocked upper-level pattern which ensues at the surface as well.  A large ridge in Atlantic Canada will keep the coastal low pressure blocked at the surface and rather stalls or meanders off the coast near the New England storm benchmark location or 40N:70W.  Winds will increase after 12z tomorrow into 12z Friday, they should peak between 55-70mph winds at the coastline between 12z Thursday and 12z Friday.  Heavy rainfall over 5" should be a common number when this storm exits Saturday night/Sunday morning.  Be prepared for a raw few days from I-95 corridor eastward will be the main region impacted from eastern CT to Eastern ME.
  15. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    There are two kinds of tracks that impact the severity of a New England blizzard, one is the NJ track, where a surface low is west of the Apps and combines with southern energy and develops a coastal storm off the New Jersey Coastline.  Normally these primary systems with NJ coastal die off before they reach eastward or northward and combine with the coastal energy to form a monster snowstorm for Cape Cod.  The second track of this type of snowstorm is the Cape Hatteras track.  Now when the primary low and system in the upper-levels develops and tracks northeastward, it originates in the Gulf of Mexico region and then redevelops off the NC coastline, otherwise known as Cape Hatteras.  These tend to be powerful as well, perhaps with more energy involved as they mature and therefore a potentially deeper surface pressures.  These tend to be less precipitation type issues and more snow even for Nantucket, MA.  Now both tracks have been kind to me on Cape Cod, where I received 30" from both tracking lows.  So what are some examples of these type of storms, one the NJ low is the Blizzard of 2005 (35") and the Hatteras track is the Blizzard of 2015 (32").
  16. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The forecast for snow and cold looks dim the next 10 days, however beyond that time period, looks to the first real chance at a snowy and cold regime over New England and at least as far south as the 38N latitude line.  Anyone south of that latitude needs to wait until further into January time frame, but for those of us north of that latitude, the pattern change is being seen by most of the guidance after day 7-9 time frame, it looks like after December 4th an arctic front swings through the Northeastern USA states and brings a return of true arctic air and snow could be a possibility.  Stay tuned!  Right now it looks like a 60% chance at seeing at least 2 snowstorms, while a 40% chance exists that we see suppression depression.
  19. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Major Severe Weather Outbreak is underway today over SNE as the first tornado warning has been issued for Middlesex County, MA.  The rest of the region shows increasing potential for intense damaging winds over 70mph, large hail over 1.5" and a few tornadoes.  Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 10 pm tonight.
  20. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Right now there is a greater than 55 percent chance of neutral ENSO conditions this winter.  This should favor above normal snowfall across most of central New England, with a tendency towards slightly above average snowfall for eastern New England and less towards normal across the northern and western parts of New England.  Storm tracks should be favored more eastward then last winter, more so from 35N:75W to around 41N:69.5W as an average storm track location.  Coastal plain of New England could see slightly above average to potentially above average snow.  I would say the Outer Cape from CHH to P-town could see around 30-45" of snow, parts of the Cape from CHH west to HYA could see 40-55" and parts of the Cape from HYA westward over 60" of snow.  So these numbers support slightly above to above average snowfall this winter.
  23. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The last three weeks of weather across Southern New England, especially considering Cape and the Islands as been so boring it has felt like early Spring.  However, models are beginning to show a better consensus of an impactful nor'easter tracking east of the 40N/70W benchmark in the day 4 1/2 to 6 period and there are legit signs it could be an extremely impactful storm.  What the impacts are exactly won't be known until Thursday at the latest.  We have time to figure out a few issues.  Until then, just be weary of the potential, while the weather takes care of the rest.
  25. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    My experiences with extreme weather in the past have been hard to come by.  Living on the outer Cape Cod, our chances at tornadoes and severe thunderstorms.  However, the greatest chance at severe thunderstorms and including supercells occur only during the months of July and August.  Now, why is this important?  During the months of July and August the water temperatures in the ocean around Cape Cod, except to the southeast, have been warming substantially and are way above average for this time of the year, this is leading to temperatures over 75F surrounding Cape and Islands, which allow the soupy presence of dew point air temperatures over 70F on the Cape.  This leads to some presence of instability, especially with a south wind.  Early on the morning of Tuesday, July 23rd, 2019, I woke up several times in the morning around 6 am and 8 am tracking the thunderstorm complex that moved through the Cape and weakened with some light showers passing through.  As the time approached 8:30 a.m. Long Island had several water spouts develop south of the area over the open ocean as velocity couplets were present with radar indicated presence of water spouts.  They were moving towards the ENE at about 30-40mph.  What alerted me to a rather elevated and perhaps higher chance at severe weather, at least chance of damaging winds, was the extreme presence of high wind shear values in all significant levels of the atmosphere.  These levels were SFC-1km, SFC-6km, and SFC to 3km wind shear numbers.  Effective Bulk Shear of 60-65 knots over the Cape stayed there all day long as the front was slow to move southeastward off the coast.  Instability nosed into the area just as the cluster of storms was nearby, which turned into a meso-low influenced supercell that was moving from Falmouth, MA to Harwich, MA and Chatham, MA.  The Supercell and attendant mesocyclone moved through the mid Cape region, after passing north of Martha's Vineyard with gusts over 69mph, Kalmus, MA reached a gust of 90mph as the supercell matured even more and got more intense with the velocity scans showing an intense couplet that got tighter as it reached the Yarmouth, MA region as the radar first indicated a tornado on the ground.  A section of radar technology that was recently developed for tornado confirmation was the correlation coefficient.  This technology can detect debris in the air other than precipitation falling.  This CC radar indicated debris lofted into the air over Yarmouth, which wa likely the Cape Sands Inn roof that was lofted into the air from the touchdown of the first EF-1 tornado that peaked at 110mph over Yarmouth and Dennis, while it lifted back into the Mesocyclone.  Then minutes later the tornado warning was issued for Harwich and most of the lower Outer Cape, where the second tornado touchdown around 12:10 pm or later winds gusted over 110mph in my backyard as the circulation likely passed just over the forest of trees in my backyard.  There were two distinct wind bursts that occurred on my street.  The first wind burst occurred at much weaker state, about 30-40mph winds, this was winds out of the southwest, than the second more intense burst was likely the rear flank downdraft or the backside of the tornado circulation that passed northwest of my house.  These winds did the most damage in the area as they likely gusted over 110mph as we lost a lot of trees and some just snapped in half.  Parts of Harwich Center, MA about a mile down the street, suffered complete devastation.  Road closures, trees on homes, trees snapped completely in half with completely developed matured trees just snapped completely in half.  Brooks Park has a large forest of large healthy trees, it looked like a plane dropped an atomic bomb was released and detonated at 20 feet high off the ground and blew up the area.  Half the trees were completely snapped in half.  The town center area suffered utter tree damage that no one has ever seen before here.  It was chaos.  The emotions were just filled with utter sadness.  Fires engulfing homes, gas leaks and evacuations as homes and streets were deemed uninhabitable.  We had 18 minutes of lead time, my family and I went into the basement for the first in our lives as the winds occurred over our house.  Debris started flying and my family and I headed into the basement.  It was the scariest moment of my life.  Life is starting to get back to normal, we gained power back around 1 pm to 3 pm yesterday afternoon.  Almost a day after the tornado, we thank the local emergency and power officials for a tremendous job done so far.  Thanks for listening and taking the time to read my post.
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