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USCAPEWEATHERAF

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  1. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Today's 12z model runs showed a good sign that tomorrow's potent storm system might spare the game weather tomorrow for the Patriots and Cowboys meeting.  Given the 20z game time kickoff they could be spared the heaviest rains and a few showers might move through after the final horn.  Game temps will be raw, and nasty outside, cloudy and maybe misting.  40s for temps.
  2. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    850mb temperatures will drop to near -30 to -40 C across the SNE region.  Cape and Islands could see a nasty band of ocean enhanced snowfall as a large upper low develops a surface low to the east of Maine and drops southeastward.  The location of this surface low will determine how close the band can get to the Cape and Islands later Friday.  With the massive cold pool aloft, winds will bring a ton of moisture, question becomes how strong will the lift become, and snow growth.  Right now, it is a toss up! DAMN!
  3. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    This winter outlook is the preliminary try for JWN productions, weather amateur forecasting, and writing business.  We have several indications that a big snowy winter is coming for Southern New England.  While water temperatures between 35N:75W, 35N:70W, 40N:75W, 40N:75W within this box can help determine the potential baroclinicity involved in a potential winter storm, determining how much moisture is available to the storm's potential snowfall amounts.  If the water temperatures are above normal in this location, than chances are there is a greater than normal chance at significant snowfall for the areas north and northwest of the storm's track, now if it is colder than normal the reverse impact, there is no real science yet to help determine if the Gulf Stream's impact's go beyond intensity of a winter storm and its precipitation outlook, storm track is just a chance of happening along the Gulf Stream, it is not a reason for the storms tracking the way they do, but what does is the positioning and intensity of several upper level features, like the +PNA ridge, and its location and amplitude, as well as the 50/50 -NAO low, and the Greenland Ridge of the -NAO regime, as well as positioning and potential for a colder than normal atmosphere, in a -AO polar Vortex location and amplitude of the arctic jet stream.  While there are factors we know about that impact the long duration indices of the NAO/PNA/AO, we don't know what the day to day and week to week levels of the indices will be determining the outcome of a winter storm's location, intensity, and impact.
    An active Sub-tropical jet streams are notorious in El Nino ENSO patterns, therefore I expect the Gulf of Mexico to have extreme precipitation changes, along with a strong chance for severe weather from Florida to the Carolinas.  It also appears the +PNA will poke its large head onto the Western CONUS during the winter months, allowing an amplified jet stream to impact the troughing over the eastern US, leading to numerous storm chances along the East Coast, now intensity, precipitation amounts, and track will have a lot to do with the -NAO/AO pattern too, those are accurately forecasted at this time, but for now I will have to say an active Jan - Mar will have numerous blizzard potentials.  All for an above normal winter for snowfall, especially from NYC to BOS.

  5. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Hello everyone from Americanwx Forums
    Tonight, I am announcing my official release date for my first novel, "The Awakening Dawn" (TAD)!
    The release date will be January 1st, 2021 (New Year's Day around noon EST)
    Hope you enjoy the novel on its release date, official cost ($0.99)
    Written by, and story created by James Warren Nichols (Air Force veteran - A1C E-3) discharged in 2012.
  7. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    One thing is for certain during an active La Nina winter season, the ENSO while in the mid cold phase between -1 and -2C below normal, the northern branch of the jet stream will be very active from now until the La Nina relaxes towards the beginning of Spring 2021.  This winter should provide a rather volatile change in the three day periods.  We will go through changes of warm and cold air masses and active storm tracks either north or south of the region.  Cape Cod has always been the benchmark for rain versus snow.  For events coming out of the northwest, like Ontario, Canada, we would prefer the low track south of Block Island, RI, while if the storm track is from the southwest, we prefer the track to the south of Nantucket.  If the clipper season is active, we should see a few 8-12 inch events from ESSEX to NANTUCKET.  The next seven days provide a nice interior event and two potential last minute developers off Cape Cod.  Let's see how this Friday system works out.
  8. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Again, the fall season still wants to remain warm across the eastern CONUS.  Right now, the pattern to Wednesday resembles a troughy but zonal pattern aloft where westerlies remain in control with several troughs moving through the region before the region warms significantly as pattern amplifies into a ridging in the East and troughing in the west pattern.  This is supported by the teleconnections across North America of a strong +NAO/-PNA/+AO pattern.  The only semblance towards a more average pattern temperature wise is with the AO heading neutral by day 15.  Right now, there are no true signs that point to a renewed cold regime in the next two weeks.  Soak up the warmth for the next few weeks.  Sun will continue to set earlier each day until the first day of calendar winter season.
  9. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    As Celtics Nation and the sports world knows, the one player that everyone associates with the Celtics organization for over sixty years has been the one and only Tommy Heinsohn, one of four players ever to be in the hall of fame in Springfield, MA as a player and a coach and as a broadcaster.  Tommy earned eight NBA championships with the Celtics in his nine year NBA career and two more as a Celtics head coach in the 1970s and had spend the final 39 years of his wonderful life as a NBA broadcaster for the 17 time NBA Championship Franchise Boston Celtics.  Mike Gorman his play by play man side by side for the last 39 years, brought up a tremendous idea that the Celtics players should have his Celtics jersey number 15 retired to be pinned on the players' jerseys during the games this season, then Brian Scalabrine went a step further and said the NBA as whole might want to show continuity as a whole behind the legend of the NBA with his impact beyond the Celtics.  Tommy will forever be missed, but we know God has welcomed him to eternal life!  November 10th, 2020 a day we will never forget a year which we hope will leave in the rear view mirror for reasons behind simplistic beliefs.
  11. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Models are beginning to show an area of focused vorticity rounding the base of neutral to negatively tilted northern branch of the jet stream trough.  Now, energy is over the central North Pacific south of the Aleutian Islands which means the energy is not being sampled properly at this time.  However, multi model consensus is beginning to show prudent signs that this trough will be energizing as it moves through which far more productive than a trough that is weakening instead.  We have the right trends going as the system ignites over the extremely warm waters relative to average norms for November 30th.  While the warm waters are a concern at times, this system will not be driving southeast winds, so the area should remain in a cold environment, enough for snow, I have no idea.  Right now, the threat has begun to emerge for Friday December 5th!
  12. USCAPEWEATHERAF

    By USCAPEWEATHERAF,

    A microburst potential exists on Tuesday morning as a screaming Low Level Jet with hurricane force winds possible for Cape Cod if the surface low travels over the top of the area.
  13. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    I just want SNE folks to realize and soak up the warmth the next few days, until a second GRT Lakes storm moves through day 3-5 and then brings a powerful cold front through the region.  This should usher in very cold, arctic like air mass into the region and the upper level pattern looks to lock into a +PNA at least through the first few days of Thanksgiving Week!  Stay tuned, a coastal redeveloping clipper could move through the region as well around the 17th/18th.  Stay alert!
  16. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    For the next several weeks we will have an increased risk for coastal impacts from several coastal and ocean storms.  Coastal flooding, high waves, rain, winds and beach erosion will be the main impacts, with chances for snow/ice and mixed precip further west in western New England.  Stay tuned, rain for now, it is not a guarantee.
     
  17. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The title is "A Wild Weekend to remember, a love story" there will be a continuation of Marie and Walter's weekend in the second short story and then a continuation of the story.
     
    James Warren Nichols, written by
    A couple, a love story.docx
  20. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    A major nor'easter/blizzard is imminent.  Blizzard of 2017 is on its way.  The northern piece of energy has made a US landfall over NW US at 18z yesterday afternoon or evening and this is the energy that we have been waiting for a sampling of and now that we got models adjusted stronger with the southern vort max  and northern vort max.  Now there are three jet streams involved.  The northern jet stream (AKA Arctic jet stream), southern stream (Pacific Jet) and the sub-tropical jet which situates over the gulf of Mexico, providing the system with a GOM low pressure center and moisture.  Ok lets get down to the gist of the models.  Models are somewhat different still in their handling of QPF, and storm track as well as intensity and they differ on degree of phasing between all three jet streams.  The models have trended stronger with the pacific jet stream energy disturbance over the northern Plains now.  this swings southeastward, and depending upon how far south it gets will help determine which model is correct as well as which storm track is correct.  On water vapor imagery, one can see a distinct area of vorticity spinning in the atmosphere, this is our southern stream (Pacific jet ) disturbance.  With its own moisture source from the Pacific and the Rocky Mountains not doing much to stop the moisture from entraining into the Northern PLains is dumping a good to decent amount of snowfall over the northern Plains towards Detroit, MI.  this energy is being forced to the southeast by a large arctic jet gyre or upper level low pressure system diving southward into the Great Lakes tomorrow morning.  This trough carries our southern stream disturbance up the east Coast combining with the GULF OF MEXICO energy and low pressure center combined to bring a singular coastal low pressure center that will be rapidly deepening as it head north-northeastward up the East Coast.  This earlier phase now expected to happen by most guidance models, is actually allowing the system to track more offshore rather than up the NYC harbor.  Benchmark track or Cape Cod track is the final question that needs to be answered.  I am going with a forecast mix of the GFS/EURO/NAM models.  Using the NAM for QPF output based upon the GFS progressiveness bias in these circumstances in which the storm is allowed to slow down due to the phasing of jets in which the large upper level low phases into the southern stream disturbance and slows it down before departing.  I think the low will move from the benchmark to about just east of ACK and CHH producing a mix of rain/snow for coastal Cape Cod and Islands therefore I have Nantucket in the 0-4" range and Harwich to Bourne in the 8-12" range, Chatham will likely see less with 4-8" of snow.  the GFS produces a ton of moisture but it falls over the ocean, this is bound to move over land, but where will help determine who gets how much, for now I will leave the 18-24" isolated 30" amounts in banding in the position it is in now.  Temperatures tonight will be in the low teens once again.  Tomorrow afternoon highs will be near 30F and lows will be near 20F, I don't see how a low 40s ocean warms an arctic air mass with a northerly component to the wind field over Cape Cod, but regardless my forecast carries a mix over Cape Cod therefore only about 8-12" will fall before the changeover.  Thunder snows and intense snowfall rates will be likely before the changeover occurs if it does at all.  the GFS is all snow except for about a changeover briefly of about .2" of QPF as rain.  That shouldn't matter much.  the other aspect to this storm is the wind damage and blizzard conditions.  I think blizzard conditions are likely even for Cape Cod and the NWS will likely issue a blizzard warning for us instead of a winter storm warning.  Hurricane force winds are likely for Cape Cod, Cape Ann and Nantucket and all along the NH and Maine immediate coastline.  Also Downeast ME sees only a few inches given that the low tracks west of them bringing in warm air off the ocean from the southeast.  Thank you



  22. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Hello folks,
    I am writing to you guys because its fun and a bit of an exercise short story for when I try to write short stories and get published in the future.  This practice short story is about a Blizzard of the Century deal where a catastrophic nor'easter meets the NE CONUS and the MW.  A storm as strong as the Greenland storms in the winter time.  A low as low as 925.4mb a category five hurricane pressure.  What would happen if a low bombed out to 925.4mb southeast of Nantucket, MA, how much snow would fall and how would it unfold in SNE.  I have a snowfall map from the Midwest Clipper and the Northeast Nor'easter coastal low.  Check it out and I hope it holds everyone off until the short story is finished.  Take care.
     
    James Warren Nichols
     


  23. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    After the story of Kawhi Leonard now wanting out of San Antonio Spurs could change the landscape of the NBA this season.  He could go to Lakers and create a superteam with them bringing in Lebron James and Paul George.  However, the Boston Celtics will be in the mix for the top 2 player and NBA finals MVP and they could offer the Spurs a much better package of young talent and picks.  He could bring the Celtics a title next year with Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward, Jayson Tatum, Kawhi Leonard and Al Horford in the lineup.  Will Danny Ainge be willing to part ways with a few bench players, including potential NBA star in Jaylen Brown; as a Jaylen Brown fan personally, I would trade Jaylen Brown and do a sign and trade with Smart for Kawhi Leonard including the best future pick the Celtics have in their arsenal, the Sacramento Kings pick in 2019.  Thoughts in the comments section?
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