CoralRed

Will we get this in North Central PA? We have all night to find out.

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Potentially exciting night for you guys.  Even if you do not get 4", a 2-4" snow would be great this season.

I updated my post. NWS calling for Renovo to get 5-9. What a surprise if they and others get close to double digits.

Given the season, you are right. This is all unexpected excitement.

Channel 16 at 7:00 weather guy said there will be 10-15 mile corridor that should see 4-6 inches and it will include both Northern and Southern Lycoming County. Some places will get warnings.

Williamsport is in Southern Lycoming County.  He had us down for 4 inches on his map. Will we actually get it? No bets here. Will I be sorry tomorrow that I still didn't spray my boots after six weeks? I will have to let you know.

7:20 Update. I went to weather.gov and clicked into pink warning area to my north. This is for Renovo, possible more than Channel 16 said: 

Winter Weather Advisory for us tonight in Williamsport. Wasn't expecting this until I just read this page a few minutes ago, then checked out local weather. We are supposed to hit 48 at 4:00. 

Description
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY...

WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations averaging between 2 and 4 inches in the valleys and to the south of Interstate 80, with locally as much as 6 inches across the higher terrain between Interstate 80 and Route 6 in the Northern Tier counties of Pennsylvania.

WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Tuesday.

IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The snow will initially be wet with accumulations prior to dusk being highly elevation dependent since temperatures at the onset of snow will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees.

3:40a Williamsport: It is 45 now. Up to 64 later today and only down to 45 tomorrow night. What a strange  February and it is already half over. 

So far it looks like this month will always be remembered for secret weather balloons. Hard to believe, isn't it?

7:35a Williamsport Report: It is 2/4/23, the temperature at Montoursville airport is 4 and winds are SW at just 4. We will have a high of around 30 later on. What a rollercoaster -- not that I am complaining that the deep dive in temperature and high winds ended so quickly.

"Needless to say, such conditions [at Mount Washington] will pose a great risk to anyone that plans on venturing to the higher summits."

Let me get this straight: They do not close down up there when things get this bad? That is the impression this gives me. Isn't allowing Joe Public to go anywhere they want, any time they want up there giving a license to the idiots of America to be as idiotic as possible? Why do that? 

Here are some eye-poppers from State College NWS. I wish they had stated the departures for all the places. January 2023 was quite a month when it came to weather. Unfortunately things didn't go as people here hoped:

Williamsport had an average 
temperature of 37.5 degrees, which was the second warmest January on record. Record was 40.2 degrees in 1932.

Harrisburg had an average temperature of 39.7 degrees, which was the third warmest January on record. Record
was 42.5 degrees in 1932, and 39.8 degrees in 1950.

Altoona had an average temperature of 37.3 degrees, which was 8.9 degrees above normal.

Bradford had an average temperature of 32.9 degrees, which was 9.8 degrees above normal.

Johnstown had an average temperature of 34.6 degrees, which was 8.3 degrees above normal.

3:32a: I was checking around and saw that NWS has gotten rid of all Winter Weather Watches in North Central PA and replaced them with Winter Weather Advisories. None of the text forecasts mention it will be heavy wet snow and only NWS text  mentions wind gusts, saying up to 30 when Advisory says 40. 

Lots of people won't realize how bad it will be because they won't know  about wind gusts and heavy wet snow.  It wouldn't be hard for all the weather companies to list wind gusts in their text forecasts. As someone who doesn't drive, let me tell you high wind gusts can be the make the difference between deciding to go out or stay home.

On a lighter note, I have a dental appointment at 2:00, less than a 10 minute drive from where I live in Williamsport. I was going to cancel but didn't since new appointments are going out to July. I can take bus or Uber and the dental office may or may not cancel afternoon appointments. I was hoping to be able to figure out by now if I can probably make it or not, but I still have no idea.

So if you want, you can weigh in on whether I will go or not.

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Wind gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow-covered roads and reduced visibility will make travel difficult. Gusty winds and heavy wet snow may result in downed trees and power outages. Snow will transition to mixed precipitation during the afternoon and evening.

I just came across this from a TV station. I don't know if anybody posted this when it came out in December. It covers highlights and stats for every winter for the last 100 years so you can look up the year you were born. I was born in the fall so I didn't find the year of my birth interesting, but the year after when I was a few months old. I wish the stats were just for PA and not the whole country, but it is is still pretty interesting.

https://www.abc27.com/history/what-winter-was-like-the-year-you-were-born/?ipid=promo-link-block1

Here is the sort of surprising zone forecast for Southern Lycoming. To me, heavy snow is a lot more than 3-7:

Here is forecast for South Williamsport:

5 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Yep the system is just becoming more and more brutal as time progresses. The fact corporations and companies do this to their employees is just vile. Because at the end of the day they don't care about you. I had one job in the past at a small business around here that didn't mind AT ALL if you had to come in late or not come in at all if it snowed badly. They would never hold it against you. They're a small business and could handle it so why can these mega corporations not handle it?

It makes no sense to me. An obvious answer is that it was a local business and the owners wanted to leave early/come in late or not at all too. But US has had thousands of business with out of town owners for over 100 years and in the past they didn't act like snow and flooding was in fact not happening. At this scale, punishing people for the weather is something pretty new.

This is bringing me into "don't get me started" territory. US companies want Americans to buy from them  and pay top dollar.  At the same time, they would rather hire a cheap foreign worker instead of an American and then treat all employees, American and foreign, like crap. I guess you can tell, I get so disgusted and will turn myself off now.

So yeah, I have no faith in forcing common sense and sanity on employers or people who don't have it, so that is why I say only answer is to close roads quicker and longer.

If we can teach the children to think differently, that's where we can see real change someday.

This New York Times article about how weather people talk about weather is free over at Yahoo, so I thought I'd share the link. 

We need to do a better job communicating weather conditions and risks to Americans. My sense is some of the people who died recently in Buffalo's blizzards really did not realize the risk they were taking. Same out West with the rains, although far fewer died.

I do not know what we do with the people don't pay attention or who discount and dismiss all weather warnings -- and there are a lot of them.

But we can do something about people getting stuck. Now that so many employers threaten people's jobs over leaving early, not finishing deliveries, coming in late or not at all per weather conditions, I think the government is going to have to be a lot more aggressive in closing roads. What else can be done when employers won't care about employees? Earlier road closings would have saved lives in Buffalo, I think.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/talk-talk-weather-130437818.html?.tsrc=fp_deeplink

5:00a Williamsport Report: Here's today's second Merry Christmas to All wish. And let me say how happy I am not to be anywhere near the mess up in Buffalo. 

Things are improving here: 16 now, winds down to 13; high will be 21. Hard to believe New Year's Eve will be 42 and New Year's 53/39.

Have a great day today, everyone!

11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Travel ban at 9:30 am was a little too late. Should have been called earlier. People had to go to work and got stuck.

That is why they have to put the bans out way in advance -- certainly the night before. Today's employers have lost their minds with demanding impossible things. What was the use of requiring people to come in when it was clear (1) that they were probably weren't going to make it and (2) everybody else was going to stay home -- so no customers?

Government has to show sense when employers don't and close down roads.

In this case, holiday travelers have to either leave early or stay home. 

This enormous storm has been talked about for over a week. If the local politicians don't want to be the bad guys, the governor should step in. 

When I try to imagine being stuck in a car at night up there, no visibility as snow just keeps coming down, freezing cold and alone for hours, I would do anything to avoid a possibility of that ever happening to me.

Anyway, Merry Christmas to all from me here in Williamsport, PA.

3 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

Why is my temperature forecasted to raise tonight?


. Pro

I don't know why but that is supposed to happen here in Williamsport, too.

Our hourlies are supposed to be: 11p-2; 12a-3; 1a-2; 2a-7a-4.

I see the wind is supposed to go up and down a bit, too.

I am so glad that the snow washed away by all that rain is still gone; I only saw random flakes today. 

I just realized our wind gusts look like daytime highs: 

My perception yesterday was that not much was happening most of the time yet it turns out we broke the Williamsport maximum daily precipitation record at 1.35". Go figure. Previous record was 1.23 in 1907.

2 hours ago, pawatch said:

A lot of model runs until Thursday. Probably going to be some wiggle wiggle between now and then.

Lets see how consistent the model runs are.

It was already happening today with weather.com's 14 day forecast for Williamsport. Between 3:00 and 5:30 it went from maybe 6-8 for next week to between 12-18 and back down again. Yeah I could not believe Thurs night suddenly was 8-12 -- and then everything back down. 

This past storm was a real pain with changing or not changing and not going as predicted. NWS kept calling for about double what we got way past the point yesterday they should have changed. 

I hope we don't have 6 days of extreme seesawing like that but we shall see. 

Ha! The wind left our sails here in Williamsport while I was asleep. I went to bed around 6:00 and at that time, temperature predictions had gone down a few degrees and  accumulations had gone up. Woke up around 11:30 and quickly heard the sounds of weather outside; too noisy to think about going back to sleep. Went outside, I could see the grass through the white which is glistening, so not just snow. Currently "rain and snow". Wunderground now calling for just 3.1 snow today, .12 rain Friday.

NWS calls for more:

5:15a More from the Williamsport Night Crew:

From weather.com's 14 day forecast snow chances for right before Christmas.

Thur Dec 22 50% Day 1-3; Night 1-3

Fri Dec 23 60% Day 1-3; Night 3-5

Sat Dec 24 50% Day 1-3

Temps stay below 32 from Thur night through at least the following Tues night. Let us see what we get.

More about Thursday-Friday from 4:05a Area Discussion: 

A pair of jet left exit regions arriving one after the other from the southwest will provide at least two periods of stronger forcing that could meld together and create steady moderate to heavy snow with rates of 1-2 inches per hour at times Thursday afternoon and evening, coinciding with the period of strongest llvl easterly flow.

Although this upcoming event is an open wave embedded in the SW flow aloft, the increasing upper diffluence, and rapidly developing coastal low over the Delmarva Region Thursday night will create the potential for some heavy snow totals in excess of 10 inches across parts of the Central and Northern Mtns.

Previous Disc...

4:30a: Williamsport and a lot of the middle of the state just got a Winter Storm Watch at 4:25:

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch possible.

I missed things earlier. 

Three points:

1. I personally just scroll by when you guys talk sports, no problem. I pretty much don't care about what people say or post. 

2. If there is interest in a banter thread so this one stays mostly  focused on weather, people should just create one and we can see how it goes.

3. The only thing that bothers me is the idea that people hold back and  don't say or post what they want to.  Please just share your thoughts and things you find relevant or interesting and others might, too. 

5:45p Williamsport: The weather just scared me! I was eating and watching TV and suddenly the window showed light where there had been darkness and I could see a long thin bluish white line was stretched across from left to right. I was startled and then I realized of course it had to be lightening.  

As I recall, we were only supposed to have .25 rain mostly during day which I figured should be ending soon. Now we have .36 rain tonight; updated forecast still has no mention of thunderstorms even though I see others have gotten them, too. 

Yes this is funny but it shows how little raining and storming we have had for months.  I'm not used to it anymore!  I didn't use my umbrella for over a month this fall and didn't use it much this summer either. Not much rain, especially during daylight hours. 

The sky when it wasn't raining today was about the same as when it was. The dreariness was intense. I am glad this happened today instead of earlier in the holiday weekend.

6:15: Another phenomenon! I was getting more food in the kitchen when things suddenly were darker. I turned around, looked up and yes, one of the lightbulbs had gone out. I am now armed with some LED bulbs so when I replace the halogens tomorrow, I should have to do it again for years, i guess.

I hope I am left in peace now for the rest of the night. Hope everybody had a great Thanksgiving.

6 hours ago, SunWX said:

Long time reader, first time poster. Before I ask question I just want to take a moment and thank all the contributors to this forum over the years, its been a great resource for the big storms and I have learned a lot.

I have a friend who was going to drive from Montreal to Pittsburgh via I-81 and I-90 on Saturday (tomorrow) and I told him no way, as he would be driving along the southern boarders of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie (the wall of the storm). My question is, he agreed to postpone traveling till Sunday (normally a 10 hour drive) so do you think the highways in those hard hit regions will be open or clear by Sunday afternoon?

Personally I don't think so, but I was being optimistic if the Saturday night and Sunday morning accumulation is less than predicted.

I am the least likely person to answer but I looked up some maps and stuff when no one else responded. I can only say after what has been going on in Western NY and around Erie, if I were doing this I'd get on the highway running south from near Montreal and travel to near NYC and take things from there. 

I used to go from Williamsport to school in Pittsburgh, usually on the bus but my loyal "just a local driver" Mom went out  each year and came back to move me and my stuff in and out of the dorm. Good old Mom. The first time we took 80 and dropped down near Pittsburgh and realized that took too long. After that, it was 220 to 22, we picked up 22 around Altoona, I think.

I cannot say how much I would make sure I avoided anything near the collosal highway mess this storm is causing now and still will be causing on Sunday. Far better to go out of your way  but be sure you can keep moving at normal speed the entire way, especially if you are on your own. Hopes this helps you and your friend.