PrinceFrederickWx

https://www.weather.gov/iln/20240408_Eclipse …So you’re saying there’s a chance

The transient cold shots are normal. What’s not normal is effortlessly running the temp up to 80 degrees on any random winter day in between.

Here’s another theoretical question: if you had to choose between clear skies partial or complete cloudy totality, which do you pick?

You might actually be better off. Problem is, everyone I know who's going to OH/PA is planning on driving up there right at the same time as me (the day before in the morning). That's not a good sign lol

We were planning on leaving the morning before (April 7) but even that seems sketchy at this point.

I'm getting really concerned about the projected number of people going into OH and PA. It's a 6 hour drive for us even without traffic. Not sure what we're gonna do if we wake up the morning of the 7th and see it estimating the drive to be like 14 hours, so I'm working on a backup plan lol There's like almost zero flights available now into CLE or anywhere in the path.

Yeah on second thought, south trend was a thing during the winter- right where we want it this far out. On a serious note, I have a bunch of worries... clouds, traffic, etc... hopefully it works out! We've got glasses from Lunt, plus I made shoebox viewers.

We were originally supposed to stay in Chagrin Falls, OH, but the owner canceled on us last year cause he was selling the property. So now we’re booked in Bristolville, OH. I’ll get fringed in a last minute north trend.

Monthly total 3.35" and 8 of the 10 days this month have had rain.

Nice workdays and crappy weekends, as usual for this region.

I feel like the massive disparity between your region and mine in rainfall (outside of winter) is somehow a feature of the new post-2016 normal. I don’t understand why though.

6 of the last 7 days here have had rain, and my monthly total is already 2.72"

I gotta be honest... when I wrote this last month, I wasn't thinking it would be Weather Will and Ji being the last two stuck holding the hot potato.

All I remember from that winter was a never-ending blowtorch with a one-and-done MECS in February that melted quickly (would that be rain now?)... but then I looked up December 2005 and on paper it does look pretty good. For some reason I forgot about that December. Honestly at this point just seeing advisory level snow in December like that would make me happy, I'm not even sure if we're capable of it anymore.

The sample size for this is way too small, and even still, I can’t find one that isn’t a dud other than 95/96.

Exactly, from now until New Year’s Eve SOMD will receive approximately 100 feet of rain while the Shenandoah Valley receives one Planck Length.

I got 1.33” total and @EastCoast NPZ got screwed… yep winter’s officially over

Idk about oaks but IMBY has now been updated from zone 7b to 8a, which makes sense, as many firs and spruces that are only hardy to zone 7 struggle down here now. I unfortunately learned this the hard way IMBY. One of the local nurseries down here told me they have been changing their tree selections.

It certainly isn’t underperforming here, I have 1.14” and it’s still pouring.

I'm smoothing over a lot of months, but in my mind we've been through a never-ending torch since spring 2010, with just two pauses: a brief one in winter 2017/18, and a longer 15-month period from January 2014 through March 2015. That 15-month period impresses me the most nowadays, it's like something from over a century ago. How did we manage that amidst the secular warming trend? Could we ever do it again, I wonder?

Yes March 2018 and that was definitely the craziest windstorm I’ve seen IMBY. Did a lot of damage to homes down here.

La Nina winters always end with an impressive windstorm in late February / early March, so this is no surprise either.

I read this wrong at first and thought you were getting 4,500 to 5,500 feet of snow on Thursday, then another 2,000 to 4,000 feet on Friday, etc. By Sunday morning I think the snow would be stacked up into outer space. I think most here would be happy with that.

If next year goes cold and snowy then it would really prove my point about ENSO being overrated. I still think we’re screwed, but I might play contrarian in next year’s snowfall contest just for fun.

I agree with all this. As I had said earlier in this thread, I have a suspicion that ENSO is weighted too highly and other factors are underrated (I’d put PDO and Pacific base state down as some of those needing higher weight too). It was a red flag to me early on when we seemed to get the same Dec. Pac puke pattern IMBY year after year, no matter what ENSO state we were in. And FWIW, I’m an admitted climate doomer so you’ll get zero argument from me on the elephant stuff. I think we’re completely screwed but who knows, maybe I’m wrong?