weathermedic
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Posts posted by weathermedic
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2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:
Gfs maybe. Euro still damn cold
NWS OKX AFD: The northern branch of the polar jet becomes the dominant stream this period as a quick shot of arctic air arrives Friday into Saturday. However, global models while still very cold, have trended a bit warmer. This will be the coldest airmass since Christmas eve with temperatures Friday night and Saturday about 20 degrees below normal. The arctic cold front slips through Friday morning with the coldest air arriving Friday night with 85h temps approaching -25C. With no downstream block over the north Atlantic, this will be a fleeting airmass. In addition, with strong NW winds behind the cold front, gusts of 25 to 35 mph will produce wind chills likely at advisory levels for much of the area. The threat for warning level criteria inland is diminishing. Lows Friday night inland are forecast to drop to around zero with the single digits to around 10 at the coast. Highs Saturday are forecast to range from the mid and upper teens inland, to around 20 at the coast. This is about 3 to 5 degrees warmer than 24h ago. -
NWS forecasting a low of 33 for the city tonight. It's 40 degrees now at 8:40pm with a mostly overcast sky. Don't think we cool down to 33. Maybe 37-38. Precip gets in mid-late morning. Temps will be rising by then. Still can snow but not holding my breath.
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Seems like the snow shower/flurries over parts of the city keeps on back building over the same area.
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Just had some sleet mixed in here with the rain at work in southwestern Nassau County just east of JFK airport.
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.35 inches of rain so far and 50 degrees at my station....early November weather
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A glimmer of hope? From Judah Cohen via Twitter:
Looks to me we're on track for another #PolarVortex stretching event for 2nd week of January that typically delivers more wintry weather to Eastern US but could there be more?
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54 with a southerly wind off the water at my station.
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Any snow reports from the north fork area of Suffolk County? Radar shows it’s been snowing from ocean/sound effect bands all night and still is.
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Barometer at my station down to 985mb
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1.01 inches of rain at my station. Waiting for the arctic front.
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Many locations forecasted to have moderate to major coastal flooding:
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour. PECONIC RIVER AT RIVERHEAD NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.6 FT, MODERATE 6.3 FT, MAJOR 7.1 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.2 FT, MODERATE 2.9 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/10 PM 2.7/ 3.2 -0.8/-0.2 0.2/ 0.7 1 NONE 22/10 AM 3.7/ 4.2 0.4/ 0.9 0.1/ 0.6 1-2 NONE 23/01 AM 3.9/ 4.4 0.5/ 1.0 1.7/ 2.2 2 NONE 23/11 AM 6.9/ 7.4 3.5/ 4.0 3.1/ 3.6 0-2 MOD-MAJ ORIENT HARBOR AT ORIENT POINT NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.7 FT, MODERATE 5.7 FT, MAJOR 6.7 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/08 PM 1.9/ 2.3 -1.1/-0.7 -0.3/ 0.2 1 NONE 22/09 AM 2.8/ 3.4 -0.2/ 0.3 -0.6/-0.1 1-2 NONE 22/09 PM 2.3/ 2.8 -0.7/-0.2 0.1/ 0.6 2 NONE 23/10 AM 5.7/ 6.2 2.7/ 3.2 2.3/ 2.8 3-6 MODERATE FLAX POND AT OLD FIELD NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 9.2 FT, MODERATE 10.2 FT, MAJOR 12.2 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.9 FT, MODERATE 2.9 FT, MAJOR 4.9 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/09 PM 6.2/ 6.7 -1.1/-0.7 -0.2/ 0.2 1 NONE 22/09 AM 7.4/ 7.9 0.1/ 0.6 -0.2/ 0.2 1 NONE 22/10 PM 7.2/ 7.7 -0.2/ 0.3 0.5/ 1.0 2 NONE 23/10 AM 11.0/11.5 3.7/ 4.2 3.2/ 3.7 0 MODERATE GREAT SOUTH BAY AT LINDENHURST NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.1 FT, MODERATE 3.6 FT, MAJOR 4.1 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.5 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/08 PM 1.3/ 1.8 -0.3/ 0.2 0.2/ 0.7 1 NONE 22/08 AM 1.6/ 2.0 0.0/ 0.5 0.1/ 0.6 1 NONE 23/09 AM 3.9/ 4.4 2.2/ 2.7 2.3/ 2.8 1-3 MAJOR GREAT SOUTH BAY AT WEST SAYVILLE NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/09 PM 1.1/ 1.6 -0.3/ 0.2 0.2/ 0.8 1 NONE 22/09 AM 1.4/ 1.9 0.0/ 0.5 0.2/ 0.8 1-2 NONE 23/10 AM 3.7/ 4.2 2.2/ 2.7 2.5/ 3.0 1-3 MOD-MAJ GREAT SOUTH BAY AT WATCH HILL/FIRE ISLAND NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.1 FT, MODERATE 3.6 FT, MAJOR 4.1 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/09 PM 0.9/ 1.4 -0.7/-0.2 0.0/ 0.5 1 NONE 22/10 AM 1.2/ 1.7 -0.3/ 0.2 -0.2/ 0.2 1-2 NONE 23/10 AM 3.5/ 4.0 2.0/ 2.5 2.1/ 2.6 0 MODERATE MORICHES BAY AT EAST MORICHES NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.4 FT, MODERATE 5.4 FT, MAJOR 6.4 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.0 FT, MODERATE 3.0 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/07 PM 1.7/ 2.2 -0.8/-0.2 0.2/ 0.7 1 NONE 22/08 AM 2.2/ 2.7 -0.2/ 0.3 0.0/ 0.5 1-2 NONE 22/08 PM 2.1/ 2.6 -0.3/ 0.2 0.5/ 1.0 2 NONE 23/08 AM 5.2/ 5.7 2.7/ 3.2 2.8/ 3.4 2-3 MODERATE SHINNECOCK BAY AT PONQUOQUE NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.9 FT, MODERATE 5.9 FT, MAJOR 6.9 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/06 PM 2.7/ 3.2 -0.6/-0.1 0.2/ 0.7 1 NONE 22/06 AM 3.6/ 4.1 0.4/ 0.9 0.0/ 0.5 1 NONE 22/07 PM 3.1/ 3.6 -0.2/ 0.3 0.5/ 1.0 2 NONE 23/07 AM 6.2/ 6.8 3.1/ 3.6 2.6/ 3.1 3 MODERATE FORT POND BAY AT MONTAUK NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.3 FT, MAJOR 7.0 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.0 FT, MODERATE 2.8 FT, MAJOR 4.5 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/07 PM 1.9/ 2.3 -0.7/-0.2 0.1/ 0.6 1 NONE 22/07 AM 2.7/ 3.2 0.2/ 0.8 -0.2/ 0.3 1-2 NONE 22/08 PM 2.2/ 2.7 -0.3/ 0.2 0.4/ 0.9 2-3 NONE 23/08 AM 5.2/ 5.7 2.7/ 3.2 2.2/ 2.7 4-5 MODERATE ROCKAWAY INLET NY NEAR FLOYD BENNETT FIELD NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.3 FT, MODERATE 8.3 FT, MAJOR 9.3 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/05 PM 4.6/ 5.1 -1.1/-0.6 0.2/ 0.7 1 NONE 22/06 AM 6.1/ 6.6 0.5/ 1.0 -0.2/ 0.3 1 NONE 22/07 PM 5.2/ 5.7 -0.3/ 0.2 0.5/ 1.0 2-3 NONE 23/07 AM 8.7/ 9.2 3.1/ 3.6 2.2/ 2.7 4-5 MODERATE JAMAICA BAY AT INWOOD NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.5 FT, MODERATE 8.2 FT, MAJOR 9.0 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.3 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.8 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/06 PM 5.1/ 5.6 -1.1/-0.7 0.1/ 0.6 0 NONE 22/07 AM 6.6/ 7.1 0.4/ 0.9 -0.2/ 0.3 0 NONE 22/07 PM 5.7/ 6.2 -0.6/-0.1 0.4/ 0.9 0 NONE 23/08 AM 8.9/ 9.4 2.7/ 3.2 1.9/ 2.3 0 MAJOR EAST ROCKAWAY INLET AT ATLANTIC BEACH NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 6.0 FT, MODERATE 7.0 FT, MAJOR 8.0 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.1 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 3.1 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/06 PM 4.0/ 4.5 -1.0/-0.5 0.0/ 0.5 1 NONE 22/06 AM 5.2/ 5.7 0.2/ 0.8 -0.2/ 0.2 1-2 NONE 22/07 PM 4.5/ 5.0 -0.5/ 0.0 0.4/ 0.9 3-4 NONE 23/07 AM 7.7/ 8.2 2.7/ 3.2 2.1/ 2.6 6-7 MOD-MAJ REYNOLDS CHANNEL AT POINT LOOKOUT NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.8 FT, MODERATE 6.8 FT, MAJOR 7.8 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.1 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 3.1 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/06 PM 3.9/ 4.4 -0.9/-0.4 0.2/ 0.7 1 NONE 22/06 AM 5.1/ 5.6 0.4/ 0.9 0.0/ 0.5 1-2 NONE 22/07 PM 4.2/ 4.7 -0.5/ 0.0 0.5/ 1.0 4-5 NONE 23/07 AM 7.4/ 7.9 2.7/ 3.2 2.1/ 2.6 8-10 MOD-MAJ HUDSON BAY AT FREEPORT NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 6.0 FT, MODERATE 6.5 FT, MAJOR 7.2 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.4 FT, MODERATE 1.9 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT TOTAL TOTAL DEPARTURE DAY/TIME TIDE TIDE FROM NORM WAVES FLOOD FT MLLW FT MHHW FT FT IMPACT -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/06 PM 4.0/ 4.5 -0.7/-0.2 1.2/ 1.7 1 NONE 22/07 AM 4.7/ 5.2 0.2/ 0.7 1.1/ 1.6 1 NONE 22/07 PM 4.4/ 4.9 -0.2/ 0.2 1.5/ 2.0 1-2 NONE 23/07 AM 7.0/ 7.5 2.3/ 2.8 3.2/ 3.7 1-2 MAJOR-
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Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service New York NY
357 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022NYZ079>081-178-179-220945-
/O.UPG.KOKX.CF.A.0002.221223T1000Z-221224T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.CF.W.0004.221223T1000Z-221224T0600Z/
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
357 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...* WHAT...One to two and a half feet, locally three feet of
inundation above ground level expected in vulnerable areas near
the waterfront and shoreline.* WHERE...Northeast Suffolk, Southwest Suffolk, Southeast
Suffolk, Southern Queens and Southern Nassau Counties.* WHEN...From 5 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Widespread moderate to localized major
flooding of vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline
is becoming likely, with 1 to 2 1/2 feet, locally 3 ft, of
inundation above ground level in low lying, vulnerable areas.
This would result in numerous road closures and cause widespread
flooding of low lying property including parking lots, parks,
lawns and homes/businesses with basements near the waterfront. A
few buildings and homes near the waterfront could experience
flooding. Vehicles parked in vulnerable areas near the
waterfront will likely become flooded. Flooding could also
extend inland from the waterfront along tidal rivers and bays.* SHORELINE IMPACTS...Along the ocean front, 10 to 15 ft
breakers (highest across eastern Long Island) will likely
result in widespread beach flooding and erosion during the
times of high tide. Areas of dune base erosion and localized
overwashes are likely as well. Along the south shore of the
north fork of Long Island, particularly Orient Point, 3 to 6
ft breaking waves will result in beach erosion and erosion of
dune structures. Wave splashover of dune structures and
bulkheads is possible in spots, which would cause flooding of
roadways and vulnerable structures behind protective
structures.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The potential for locally major flooding
on Friday morning will depend on the direction and strength of
winds through the time of high tide. This will be refined over
the next 24 hours.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. If
travel is required, do not drive around barricades or through
water of unknown depth.-
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Upton waiting (as they should) to commit to anything for the late week system:
There remains a high degree of uncertainty for what may happen late week, but the current thinking is that shortwave energy associated with the cold front of the large cyclone over the Great Plains shifts toward the East Coast on Wednesday night and into Thursday. This may result in the redevelopment of a deepening surface cyclone off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Thursday and into Friday. There remains questions as to the degree of deepening, placement of the low in relation to our area, surface temperatures, interactions with the trough that remains to the east of the area, as well as the timing of development. Additionally, there isn't much eastward progression with the upper-level flow so the low may meander a bit into the weekend. As a result, this remains a fairly uncertain forecast with any specifics difficult to pinpoint at this time. For now, capped PoPs at chance for much of the timeframe with a mix of rain and snow possible for much of the area.
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Finished with 1.25 inches of rain. Barometer bottomed out at 29.40 (995.6 mil) earlier this morning.
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1.15 inches of rain so far here.
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1.15 inches with the initial bands of rain here.
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47 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:
Looks like a squall line might push through this evening ahead of the front
Good shear and lapse rates plus more sunshine than forecast so some storms are possible
Squall line on radar in northwest NJ now heading east.
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Finished with 4.20 inches at my station in Sheepshead Bay Brooklyn. More than July, August and September combined.
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.83 in the bucket today. 2.29 inches total since 9/30. Temp down to 63 in the house tonight. Had to turn on the heat for a bit.
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Nice steady soaking here. Have .42 so far.
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2 hours ago, jm1220 said:
This probably won’t be it but we certainly are due for what we saw from the late 1930s-early 1960s. A Great Atlantic Hurricane, Donna, 1938, Hazel etc would be 50 billion dollar disasters at the very minimum. Bob 75 miles or so further west would’ve been devastating as well. We seem to get these marine heatwaves all the time too, so any Hurricane would have less time to weaken as it comes north.
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Have .76 in the bucket here. I’ll take it considering I only had .80 for the entire month of August.
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Tornado warning for Connecticut
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3 minutes ago, Rjay said:
It's been the north shore almost all summer. But also areas right along the south shore had a good soaking recently. The areas between sunrise/montauk hwy and southern state in nassau and western suffolk and areas between 454 and sunrise/montauk hwy in suffolk have had like nothing all summer.
Add southern Brooklyn to the nothing all summer. Had .80 inches at my station for August.
February 2023
in New York City Metro
Posted
58 at my station