bluewave

Pretty impressive gradient to our south this morning with morning lows above 70° in Delaware. Those 850 mb temperatures just over+16C are close to the record. But with the front on the move south the strongest warmth will shift south this afternoon.

There has been a shift in the the tropical cyclone tracks since the 1990s. From the late 1930s into the early 1990s the hurricanes were being directed further up the coast due to the weaker ridge near and to the north of New England. This is why Hurricane Bob in 1991 was the last hurricane to cross the coast in New England. Also the reason the last hurricane to cross the coast on Long Island was Gloria in 1985. There hasn’t been a major hurricane landfall north of Florida or Georgia since 1996. All the major hurricane landfalls since 1996 have been in the Gulf and the East Coast of Florida. My guess is that the much stronger ridge east of New England which has resulted in the stronger summer onshore flow and higher dewpoints has been steering most of the tropical activity to our south. Even Sandy curved into SNJ instead of crossing the coast further north on Long Island or Eastern New England. So it will be interesting to see how much longer this steering pattern continues.

It will be interesting to see if we can actually get a slow moving coastal next weekend since that storm track has been almost nonexistent in recent years.

Who knows what the sky conditions will be that far out. But next week will be cooler before we warm up again for the 3rd week of April. JFK already had the 4th earliest 80 on record. So the warm ups continue to be more impressive than the cooldowns. First/Last Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1990 03-13 (1990) 85 10-14 (1990) 82 214 2021 03-26 (2021) 81 10-14 (2021) 80 201 1998 03-27 (1998) 80 10-01 (1998) 80 187 2025 03-29 (2025) 82 - - - 1991 04-07 (1991) 81 10-03 (1991) 80 178 2010 04-07 (2010) 87 09-25 (2010) 87 170

Looks like a cooler pattern next week before the next warm up mid-April which has been correcting stronger in recent runs. New run next 70s+ warm up for mid-April Old run

Sunday looks like one of the biggest deviations between the surface and 850 mb temperatures that we have seen in a while. The 850 mb temperatures with full sun and SW to W flow would support highs near 90°. But the clouds, rain, and onshore flow will limit the high temperature potential.

As the atmosphere continues to warm, the 500mb heights have been increasing to record levels. So it leads to weather patterns getting stuck in place over extended periods of time. The trough areas have been shrinking also so we don’t see the really deep troughs like we used to get which were very cold. Even though we had impressive -EPO +PNA -AO blocking this past winter, the cold never was able to approach levels we saw during past winters with similar teleconnections.

Hopefully, January turns out to be the driest month of 2025 as we continue to see increased rain chances going forward in April.

Mid to upper 70s in parts of NJ where the sun is out.

Our dry months these days have mostly been the result of record 500mb ridges getting stuck in place like we saw in SEP, OCT, and JAN. But as soon as the blocks fade the rains return. In the old days the drier patterns were more a result of a cooler atmosphere holding less moisture. Now the atmospheric moisture is at record levels with serious flooding occurring in many locations like to our SW recently as the fast Pacific Jet encounters the Southeast Ridge.

The good news is that the NYC reservoirs to our north haven’t been low enough to require water restrictions since 2001-2002. The record dry pattern last fall occurred after one of the wettest periods preceding it. So the NYC reservoirs were OK. But some of the NJ reservoirs closer to the driest anomalies did fall pretty low. We have generally seen slow improvement in the drier conditions last few months. While this fast Pacific flow hasn’t been great for snowfall, it has remained wet enough overall to avoid anything approaching what we had back in the 1960s.

The 850 mb temperatures will be warmer than last weekend when we reached the 80s. But this time the flow will be more SW with clouds and the front nearby. If we were able to have deep westerly flow like last weekend with the forecast 850s, then it would support highs near 90°. So even with the clouds and more SW flow the 80s will make it to Central NJ on Sunday. More of a seabreeze this time around on Long Island.

2nd warmest March on record.

594 DM is a record Southeast Ridge for early April.

Thursday and Sunday look like the warmest days coming up. So our next chance for 70s will be on Thursday. Then the next push of 80s on Sunday. Still uncertain if the 80s only make it to Central NJ on Sunday or can come closer to Newark. Probably will be determined by frontal timing.

The nonstop parade of storms cutting through the Great Lakes with the record fast Northern stream of the Pacific Jet.

April is continuing the theme of the strongest average wind gusts over 30 mph again from January through March on record. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=140&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&syear=1900&sday=0101&eday=0331&varname=avg_wind_gust&w=none&thres=1&year=2025&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Another top 10 warmest March from NW NJ to Eastern Long Island for the 2020s. Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2012 48.0 0 2 2024 44.4 0 3 2016 44.0 0 4 2025 43.7 0 5 2010 43.5 0 6 2020 43.2 0 7 2021 40.7 0 8 2023 39.5 0 9 2022 39.3 4 - 2004 39.3 0 10 2002 38.4 0 Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2012 48.6 0 2 2024 46.2 0 3 2016 46.1 0 4 2020 45.8 0 - 2010 45.8 0 5 2025 45.2 0 6 2000 44.1 0 7 2021 43.3 0 8 2022 43.1 0 9 2004 42.0 0 10 2023 41.5 0 - 2002 41.5 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1945 50.5 1 2 1921 50.0 0 3 1903 49.4 0 4 2012 49.3 0 5 1946 48.5 0 6 2016 47.7 0 7 1898 47.1 0 8 2025 46.3 0 9 2024 46.2 0 - 2020 46.2 0 10 2010 46.0 0 - 1902 46.0 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2012 51.3 0 2 1945 50.6 0 3 2016 49.1 0 4 1946 48.8 0 5 1973 48.6 0 6 2024 48.5 0 7 2010 48.2 0 8 2025 48.1 0 9 2020 47.9 0 10 2000 47.8 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1945 51.1 0 2 2012 50.9 0 3 1946 49.8 0 4 2016 48.9 0 5 1921 48.4 0 6 2010 48.2 0 - 1903 48.2 0 7 2024 48.1 0 8 2020 48.0 0 9 2000 47.2 0 10 2025 46.9 0 - 1979 46.9 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2012 47.8 0 2 2016 45.0 0 3 2010 44.8 0 4 2024 44.4 0 5 2020 43.9 1 6 2025 43.4 0 7 2000 43.1 13 - 1998 43.1 6 8 1985 42.7 0 9 1973 42.5 0 10 1995 42.3 5 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2012 50.8 0 2 1945 49.7 0 3 2016 49.0 0 4 1946 48.5 0 5 2020 48.1 0 6 2010 48.0 0 7 2024 47.3 0 8 2000 47.0 0 9 2025 46.9 0 10 1977 45.7 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2012 48.5 0 2 1973 47.7 0 3 2016 47.5 0 4 2025 47.1 0 - 2010 47.1 0 5 2024 46.9 0 6 2020 46.5 0 7 1979 45.3 0 8 1985 45.1 0 9 2000 44.9 0 10 1983 44.6 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2012 47.1 0 2 2024 45.5 0 3 2010 45.0 0 4 2020 44.8 0 5 2016 44.7 0 6 2025 43.8 0 7 2000 43.2 0 8 1979 43.0 0 9 1991 42.2 0 10 2021 42.0 0 - 1973 42.0 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2012 47.3 0 2 2024 45.7 0 3 2016 45.5 0 4 2010 45.1 0 5 2025 45.0 0 6 1973 44.9 0 7 2020 44.8 0 8 1977 43.4 0 9 2000 43.2 0 10 1995 42.9 0 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2012 48.0 0 2 1945 47.6 0 3 1946 46.8 1 4 2016 45.9 0 5 1936 44.7 1 6 2024 43.3 0 7 1973 43.2 0 8 2010 43.1 0 9 2020 42.9 0 10 2025 42.8 1 Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1921 52.5 0 2 2012 52.2 0 3 1945 51.2 0 4 2016 51.0 0 5 1946 49.8 0 6 2025 49.5 0 7 1903 49.4 0 8 2020 48.9 0 9 1977 48.8 0 10 2024 48.5 0

Warmer and wet start to April as a frontal boundary stalls out just to our west. The good news is that February and March saw a bounce back to normal to a little above normal rainfall. So the drought is slowly easing. Looks like the 2nd week of April will be cooler and drier as we get the typical spring final dynamic final warming blocking. Then we probably see the temperatures rebound as the blocking fades later in the month. MAR 31 to April 7 above normal temperatures and rainfall

Islip on track to finish March near 5th warmest. Every March during the 2020s has featured top 15 warmth. So the average March snowfall has dropped from 8.5” in the 2010s to only 0.5” in the 2020s. 4 out of the last 5 years had top 2 lowest monthly snowfall for March. 2024 to 2025 has been the first back to back Marches without a trace of snow. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2012 47.3 0 2 2024 45.7 0 3 2016 45.5 0 4 2010 45.1 0 5 1973 44.9 0 6 2025 44.8 1 - 2020 44.8 0 7 1977 43.4 0 8 2000 43.2 0 9 1995 42.9 0 10 1991 42.7 0 11 1979 42.6 0 12 2022 42.4 0 - 2021 42.4 0 13 1998 42.0 0 14 1985 41.9 0 15 2023 41.8 0 - 2002 41.8 0 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.5 0.5 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 0.0 0.0 2023 1.6 1.6 2022 1.6 1.6 2021 T T 2020 T T Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 8.2 8.2 2019 4.1 4.1 2018 31.9 31.9 2017 7.4 7.4 2016 3.2 3.2 2015 19.7 19.7 2014 5.4 5.4 2013 7.4 7.4 2012 T T 2011 2.1 2.1 2010 0.4 0.4 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 0.0 2 - 2024 0.0 0 - 1966 0.0 0 2 2021 T 0 - 2020 T 0 - 2012 T 0 - 2008 T 0 - 2002 T 0 - 1995 T 0 - 1985 T 0 - 1983 T 0 - 1982 T 0 - 1979 T 0 - 1973 T 0

Islip tied its warmest March temperature at 82°. It’s the 3rd top 10 warmest March high temperature in the 2020s. It was also the greatest 6 hour temperature drop in March. The chart below only uses temperatures on the hour so the actual drop was 2° more. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 82 2 - 1990 82 0 3 1998 81 0 4 1991 79 0 5 2021 78 0 6 2011 77 0 7 2012 75 0 - 2007 75 0 8 1985 74 0 9 2024 73 0 - 2016 73 0 - 1999 73 0 10 1989 72 0 - 1977 72 0 15 2010 71 0

Islip approaching top 5 March high temperatures. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1990 82 0 2 1998 81 0 3 1991 79 0 4 2021 78 0 5 2011 77 0

Long Island especially further west will have several hours in the warm sector before the backdoor arrives later.

Low 80s making it to Long Island with the well mixed deep westerly flow and very dry conditions.

That should be some impressive compressional warming ahead of the backdoor tomorrow. The backdoor probably comes through Suffolk first and then by later in the day closer to NYC. Some spots may go from 80s to 50s in a very short time.