bluewave

It could be a short window of opportunity if the models are correct about the next trough in 8-10 days.

The first 90° readings of the season look possible for New England by next weekend. Very unusual skinny 588 dm ridge over the cutoff low. If the winds stay S or SE, then NYC and LGA may only top out in the upper 70s. But a SW flow would be easy 80s even for NYC and LGA.

Yes. The most among the major sites like NYC, EWR, and LGA. Central Park would regularly tie or lead for the most 90° days from the 1930s to 1980. But the tree growth over the equipment has prevented it from happening since 1980. If the station was properly maintained, NYC could have lead the area or tied for the most 90° days several years since then. Years when Central Park lead or tied for most 90° days 1936 NYC….26 EWR….22 1937 NYC…22 EWR…22 1939 NYC…24 EWR…24 1941 NYC…29 EWR…27 1953 NYC….32 EWR….32 1962 NYC….18 EWR….14 1966 NYC…35 EWR….33 1967 NYC…..9 EWR….7 1969 NYC….16 EWR…15 1970 NYC…29 EWR….29 1976 NYC…15 EWR..15 1980 NYC…32 EWR…27

Sneaky freezing layer near 850 mb.

The block over the top of this cutoff low will approach record levels for early May exceeding 588 dm in spots.

Slight increase in days during May staying under 55° at LGA since 1981 compared to the big winter increase in days over 55°.

Sunday looks like low clouds and drizzle near the coast with a sunny day just to our NW.

We can clearly identify the mid 1990s into the early 2000s as the period when the trees began to cover the Central Park equipment. From the 1950s through the early 1990s, NYC would record 90 degree days in reasonable agreement with either EWR or LGA. Then NYC fell far behind during the 2000s when tree growth caused the high temperature readings to become unreliable. Sample years for 90 days since 1955 1955 EWR…32 NYC….25 LGA…..29 1966 EWR….33 NYC….35 LGA….25 1977 EWR….26 NYC….23 LGA…..14 1980 EWR…27 NYC…32 LGA….22 1983 EWR…40 NYC…36 LGA….31 1988 EWR….43 NYC….32 LGA…..26 1991 EWR…41 NYC…39 LGA….34 1999 EWR….33 NYC….27 LGA….26 2005 EWR….37 NYC….23 LGA…..30 2006 EWR…..27 NYC…..8 LGA……22 2010 NYC…54 NYC….37 LGA….48 2016 EWR….40 NYC…..22 LGA…..32 2020 EWR….31 NYC….20 LGA…..34 2021 EWR….41 NYC…..17 LGA…..25

Looks like someone drew the northern rainfall cutoff with a ruler. This is what happens with such an elongated record block over SE Canada.The line extends from south of Detroit due east into the Atlantic. So the cutoff gets stuck for days underneath.

Even JFK along the South Shore still hasn’t made it above 72° yet. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Jan 1 to May 6 Missing Count 1 2019-05-06 70 0 - 1975-05-06 70 0 - 1968-05-06 70 0 2 2014-05-06 71 0 - 1961-05-06 71 0 - 1954-05-06 71 1 3 2022-05-06 72 1 - 1971-05-06 72 0

This has been some of the strongest spring onshore flow influence that we have seen around here. Very sharp dividing line between west of Central Park and east. LGA still hasn’t had a 75° day yet. So it’s already the 5th latest. 74° is also the 3rd coldest high at LGA by May 6th on record. First/Last Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference 1981 05-21 (1981) 76 09-27 (1981) 79 128 1984 05-19 (1984) 76 10-28 (1984) 80 161 1975 05-14 (1975) 75 11-04 (1975) 75 173 1988 05-13 (1988) 75 10-02 (1988) 79 141 1971 05-11 (1971) 80 11-02 (1971) 76 174 1940 05-07 (1940) 79 10-15 (1940) 77 160 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Jan 1 to May 6 Missing Count 1 1940-05-06 71 1 2 1984-05-06 73 0 - 1975-05-06 73 0 - 1971-05-06 73 0 3 2022-05-06 74 1 - 1988-05-06 74 0 - 1981-05-06 74 0

It will be a battle of where the cutoff finally stalls out. The Euro keeps areas near the coast in an onshore flow. If the Euro is correct, then NYC and LGA may not be able to get their first 80° day yet. But we’ll have to wait for later model runs to see if the 80° over the top warmth to our NW can work down closer to NYC. We just need the Bermuda high to be a little stronger than the backdoor high to the north for the first 80° in NYC and LGA.

The NYC Central Park minimum JJA average temperature rise between 1951-1980 and 2010-2021 actually matches the other stations. So this is how we can see that the dense foliage is blocking the sun during the daytime. I included all our major weather stations in the analysis below. It’s interesting that the stations on the Long Island Sound saw the greatest minimum temperature increase. So LGA and BDR are our only stations with a 3° low temperature increase. 1951-1980 to 2010-2021 JJA average temperature increase NYC….max….+0.5….min +2.3 EWR….max…+2.3…..min…+2.3…identical to NYC Central Park LGA…..max….+2.6….min….+3.2 JFK……max....+2.2…min….+2.4 ISP…….max…..+2.7….min….+2.7……records start in 1964 BDR…..max…..+2.1…..min……+3.1…similar to LGA

Next week could be the thinnest record breaking ridge with a cutoff underneath that we have seen this time of year.

Feel free to cut and paste, copy, or take screen shots of the posts in this thread. I put out this data and analysis for everyone to freely share. You can add the post below to an email and send it along to him. The Central Park equipment was out in the sun and away from the deep shade during the 1951-1980 climate era. So we can compare how the high temperatures during the summer have changed between EWR, NYC, and LGA since then. The tree growth over the equipment has trimmed 2° off the NYC summer high temperatures relative to EWR and LGA. This has resulted in many lost recent heat records for NYC as the record warmth dramatically increased since 2010. Central Park should be averaging 10 more annual 90° days instead of just 1 if it was out in a grassy clearing away from the deep shade and cooling foliage. This error in temperature measurement became obvious after the mid 90s ASOS installation in NYC Central Park. 2010-2021 summer high temperature warming over 1951-1980 NYC 1951-1980……83.0……2010-2021….83.5…..+0.5….should be closer to 85.5 or +2.5 away from the shade EWR…83.4…..85.7…+2.3 LGA….82.0…..84.6...+2.6 90° days change NYC….18……19……+1…should be +10 and 28 days a year of 90° EWR….23....33…….+10 LGA…..15…..26…….+11 Link to photos and news stories on overgrowth of vegetation around the sensors http://www.weather2000.com/ASOS/NYC_ASOS.html

This has been our default summer pattern since 2018.

Yeah, another summer on the Euro with the subtropical ridge and Bermuda high pushing up into the Canadian Maritimes.

Yeah, the Euro,GEM, NAM, and RGEM have really slowed the progress of the cutoff low. So several models now have 2.00+ for the area.

The big 90° day leader at JFK las well as our other stations was 2010. But you can see how many top 10s there were in recent years. I bolded the 6 top 10 years since the post 2010 much warmer period began, Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 32 0 2 1983 26 0 3 2002 21 0 4 1971 18 0 - 1949 18 0 5 2005 17 0 - 1991 17 0 6 2012 16 0 - 1959 16 3 - 1955 16 2 7 2016 15 0 - 1995 15 0 - 1961 15 0 8 1999 14 0 - 1988 14 0 - 1966 14 0 - 1952 14 0 9 2011 13 0 - 1993 13 0 - 1984 13 0 - 1977 13 0 - 1970 13 0 - 1969 13 0 - 1963 13 0 10 2020 12 0 - 2015 12 0 - 2006 12 0 - 2003 12 0 - 1978 12 0 - 1968 12 0 - 1953 12 0

This may set a new record for the thinnest 591 dm ridge over New England with a cutoff stuck underneath.

Figures that the slowest moving cutoff nor’easter of the year waited until May. Euro has a general 1-2” of rain with localized higher amounts where the best banding sets up. Most of the rain falls from Friday night into Saturday with easterly gales and low 50s. The gales continue into Tuesday with periods of patchy drizzle near the coast.

The La Niña background state keeps getting stronger.

Great pattern for the surfers with easterly gales and 10 foot + swells from Saturday into Tuesday.

Pretty impressive heavy rainfall gradient for the cutoff low from Friday into Saturday. This would already have 100 posts of we were talking snow. All the guidance has a different forecast for how far north the heavy rains come.

Maybe one day a high enough ranking NWS official will find this thread and look at what is going on. We seldom see meteorologists from the local Upton NWS office join in these threads. But other local forums seem to have NWS meteorologists checking in. Walt is great but he was from Mt. Holly and Boston. So we probably need a local office member to take interest in this issue. They probably don’t even realize how far the Central Park ASOS has drifted away from the more accurate readings that we used to get before the new station was installed in the mid 90s. We can see how many top 10 years there were for 90° days at EWR and LGA since 2010. But notice how most of the NYC highest totals were from before the the time of new weather station in the mid 90s. If we add the 9 missing annual days to these totals, then they are more in agreement with LGA and EWR like they used to be before the mid 90s. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 6 1994 39 0 - 1944 39 0 7 2005 37 0 - 1987 37 0 8 2018 36 0 - 1949 36 0 9 2015 35 0 10 1961 34 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 48 0 2 2018 38 0 3 2002 35 0 4 2020 34 0 - 1991 34 0 5 2016 32 0 6 1983 31 0 7 2005 30 0 - 1953 30 0 8 1955 29 0 - 1944 29 0 9 2012 28 0 - 1949 28 0 10 1959 27 0 NYC uncorrected top 10 years for 90 days Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 1993 39 0 - 1991 39 0 2 2010 37 0 - 1944 37 0 3 1983 36 0 4 1966 35 0 5 2002 32 0 - 1988 32 0 - 1980 32 0 - 1953 32 0 6 1995 29 0 - 1961 29 0 - 1949 29 0 - 1941 29 1 7 1943 28 0 8 1999 27 0 - 1959 27 0 9 1936 26 0 10 1955 25 0 NYC corrected more recent top 10s Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 46 0 - 1991 39 0 2 1993 39 0 3 1944 37 0 2002 37 0 4 1983 36 0 5 1966 35 0 6 2005 32 0 - 1980 32 0 - 1953 32 0 2002 32 0 7 2016 31 0 8 2018 30 0 9 1941 29 1 1949 29 0 2020 29 0 10 1943 28