donsutherland1

87 at NYC.

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

both had record breaking hot stretches in the summer.

The evolving ENSO transition favors a hot summer. I suspect that many parts of the NYC area will have a shot at 100 this summer. We'll have to see if the heat penetrates Central Park's forest.

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

He will still be predicting cold and snow on Memorial Day weekend. He’s living in an alternative universe all to his own 

You're probably right. Maybe he'll dig out the 1816 analog for June given his practice of using antiquated and irrelevant analogs.

33 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Who's gonna tell metsfan?

JB has moved past what turned out to be his latest missed call and is talking about a pattern similar to 1966 and 1977 for the second week of May. 

On 4/27/2024 at 8:32 AM, Brian5671 said:

LOL

WeatherBell Analytics was predicting 30 inches, and Joe Bastardi, the former long-range forecaster at AccuWeather, saw temperatures slightly below normal, “and the worry is it will be colder.” Not to worry: It was one of the milder winters on record.

Article: https://www.inquirer.com/weather/philadelphia-weather-snow-forecasts-20240427.html

Speaking of JB, we just made it through his latest forecast period of “major cold.” The NYC temperature anomaly for April 25-28 was 1.3 degrees below normal. That was the 98th coldest April 25-28 period on record. Records go back to 1869. 

Tomorrow will likely be the warmest day of the week with widespread readings in the upper 70s and lower 80s. The hottest spots could reach the middle or upper 80s with perhaps a few 90° highs. May remains on course to start out with warmer to much warmer than normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.03°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was -5.12 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.920 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.6° (1.9° above normal).

Overnight, parts of the region could see a shower or two, as a warm front pushes slowly across the region. In its wake, tomorrow will turn noticeably warmer as the sun returns. The temperature will surge into the 70s in much of the region.

Monday could be the warmest day of the week with widespread readings in the upper 70s and lower 80s. The hottest spots could reach the middle or upper 80s with perhaps a few 90° highs. May will likely start out with warmer to much warmer than normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.03°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was -3.10 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.814 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.6° (1.9° above normal).

Tulip season is now ending in a blaze of glory at the New York Botanical Garden. Five photos:

The mainly fair weather will continue after another cool start, particularly outside of Philadelphia and New York City. However, it will likely turn noticeably warmer on Sunday. Monday could be the warmest day of the week with widespread readings in the upper 70s and lower 80s. The hottest spots could reach the middle or upper 80s. May will likely start out with warmer to much warmer than normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.03°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was +0.58 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.942 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.5° (1.8° above normal).

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow I wonder if that was the warmest low temperature at JFK at which 1" of snow has fallen?

 

No. JFK's record is 1.9" on March 14, 1972 with a low temperature of 36°.

It will be another chilly night with the temperature falling into the lower 40s in New York City. Readings near or below freezing are possible well north and west of New York City tonight where some frost is likely tomorrow morning. After a cold start, the temperature will rise into the upper 50s and lower 60s across the region.

It will likely turn noticeably warmer on Sunday as April nears an end. Monday could be the warmest day of the week with widespread readings in the upper 70s and lower 80s. The hottest spots could reach the middle or upper 80s. May will likely start out with warmer to much warmer than normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.03°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was -14.28 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.550 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.2° (1.5° above normal).

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thats right we had a small accumulation of snow on 4/16/14!

I'm shocked it wasn't either 4/19 or 4/20 in 1983.... didn't JFK have about 2 inches of snow on that very late date? Tony, can you please check 4/19-4/20 in 1983 and see what the temperature was when it was snowing on those days?  Thanks!

 

JFK had 1.5" on April 19, 1983. The low temperature was 35°.

A strong shot of cold will overspread the region tonight. The temperature will fall into the lower 40s and perhaps even upper 30s in New York City tomorrow morning. Readings near or below freezing are possible well north and west of the City tonight and tomorrow night. The mercury will remain in the 50s throughout tomorrow.

It will likely turn noticeably warmer on Sunday as April nears an end. May will likely start out with warmer to much warmer than normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.03°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was -15.50 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.523 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.2° (1.5° above normal).

12 hours ago, vegan_edible said:

weather gets absolutely perfect, california-esque in fact 

vegan_edible gets covid

you can't make this stuff up

 

you all better be outside enjoying it for me!

Get well soon.

Tomorrow will be a warm day, though there will be a risk of a shower or even thundershower. Overall, generally cooler than normal conditions will likely persist through most of the week.

It will likely turn noticeablywarmer as April concludes with May starting with warmer to much warmer than normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.03°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was -14.06 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.022 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.0° (1.3° above normal).

13 minutes ago, TriPol said:

When does the warm spring air come in again? Sick and tired of hovering around 40 each night.

Probably Sunday.

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It makes me wonder why there was such a narrow range on May 9, 1977 of 43-38?  Did JFK get a T of snow that day as well as on May 9, 2020? Those have to be their latest traces of snowfall?

No snow was recorded at JFK. But it was mostly cloudy with cold rain.

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, Don.  Did that date and May 9, 2020 both have a trace of snow at JFK? Also, what was the recorded low at JFK in 1977-- was that their latest temperature of 32 or lower?

Weird to see it repeat on exactly the same date, but that seems to happen quite often!

 

 

No. JFK's lowest May temperature is 34° (May 10, 1966 and May 9, 2020).

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I don't understand why more people aren't honest about it being a climate emergency.  When your house is burning do you debate about your next steps or do you take immediate action to stop the fire?

 

The fossil fuel industry has warped political and public opinion. It is the beneficiary of $7 trillion in annual subsidies according to the IMF's 2023 report and earns tens of billions of dollars in annual profits. It wants to burn through all fossil fuel resources to maximize the lifetime profits possible from such an outcome, especially as it is not required to pay for any of the damage it inflicts from climate change and its impacts. As a result, it has devoted funds and effort to undermining public understanding of the consequences of its injecting enormous amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere each year.

The information ecosystem is deficient to the challenge. Social Media has few if any checks on disinformation, hence climate denial continues to prosper there. Unfortunately, a growing share of the public obtains some or most of its information from Social Media. Even the mainstream media with a few exceptions, devotes very little coverage to climate change. For example, aside from a handful of outlets, none connected the recent rains in Dubai/UAE to climate change despite climate modeling calling for an increased frequency of excessive rains in that region, very few noted that the recent extreme heat in Africa's Sahel Region would have been "virtually impossible" without climate change, and few if any have connected the raging heatwave across south Asia to climate change despite a 2023 attribution paper that covered a similar and somewhat lesser April heatwave there. This material omission from sources of information, including credible sources, further undercuts the urgency of addressing climate change at a time when a still relatively smooth transition is possible. By 2030, the transition required to hold warming to 1.5C to 2.0C will be fairly disruptive and painful. By then, policy makers will likely claim that the required changes are "unrealistic"--that the required changes will become drastic would be the payoff on decades of relative policy inaction. Younger people's and future generations' wellbeing would be sacrificed on the altar of fossil fuels and shortsighted status quo thinking.

Finally, even as a number of countries are rapidly expanding their clean energy infrastructure/capacity, those countries are avoiding setting targets for rapidly phasing out fossil fuel burning. In fact, oil and gas production is growing, not shrinking. For all the political rhetoric, the U.S. is a big reason global oil and gas production is increasing, not falling. From the EIA:

Although forecast OPEC+ crude oil production in 2024 decreases by 0.9 million b/d compared with last year, forecast production outside of OPEC+ increases by 1.8 million b/d, led by the United States, Guyana, Brazil, and Canada. Global liquid fuels production in our forecast increases by 2.0 million b/d in 2025 as the OPEC+ production cuts expire and supply growth outside of OPEC+ continues to grow.

An "all of the above" energy approach is a guarantee that the world won't meet its Paris Agreement commitments.

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Tony, and a Trace of snow on the 9th?

That high of 49 on May 9th with sunshine (most of the time) is pretty crazy too.

Is that an all time low for the month of May for JFK?

 

No. The record was set on May 9, 1977 with a high temperature of just 43°.

3 hours ago, Bhs1975 said:

Collapse would occur well before 2.9C.

2.9C is still avoidable. Whether it will be avoided remains to be seen.

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I notice the media likes to marginalize climate change protests by talking about "young people at the protests"  Today, on the Sunday talk shows they did a segment on Earth Day and what they said is that politicians don't believe that anyone besides the very young care about climate change.  According to polling it ranked at the very bottom of issues that voters care about-- it was at around 2%.  If it was framed as a healthcare and national security issue as it should be, maybe that would be different.

One day, younger voters will be the largest share of the electorate. And if they face a materially worse climate, they may well choose abrupt breaks from existing policy arguing that failed leaders from past generations left them no other choice. Today, transitions are still possible, though the rate of needed change is much greater than it was 10-20 years ago on account of relative policy inaction. For now, the world remains on a course where it will be 2.9C warmer by 2100 (higher if Hansen is right).

Under mainly cloudy skies, much of the region struggled to reach the low 50s. Tomorrow will be somewhat milder, but generally cooler than normal conditions will likely persist through most of the week.

It could turn warmer as April concludes with May starting with warmer to much warmer than normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.15°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was -4.33 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.594 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.9° (1.2° above normal).

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, the problem I have with scientists is why aren't they on the frontlines? Why is the burden on young people to go out and protest and boycott?  Scientists should be walking out of their jobs and out in the streets protesting with them if they believe so strongly about climate change.  Merely publishing papers isn't good enough anymore, if it's that much an emergency, they need to make sacrifices too.  Maybe if enough scientists quit work the politicians would have to listen.

 

Some actually are on the front lines e.g, NASA’s Peter Kalmus. The news media covers even trivial entertainment and business developments (small scale impact) and devotes very little coverage to climate change and related events. Perhaps an extreme heatwave in Paris that coincided with the summer Olympics would bring worldwide coverage. In the meantime, the fossil fuel industry continues to dump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, receive trillions of dollars in subsidies, and inflict growing harm on human health/lives and ecosystems.

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

A report came out how much the fossil fuel cartel has been lying about plastic recycling.

MOST PLASTIC CANNOT --REPEAT-- CANNOT BE RECYCLED!

 

BUT THE PLASTIC PUSHERS OF THE DIRTY FOSSIL FUEL CARTELS CONTINUE TO LIE AND DECEIVE BY SAYING IT CAN!

 

THEY'VE BEEN LYING ABOUT PLASTIC RECYCLING FOR 30 YEARS NOW

Tragically, society tolerates their dishonesty.