donsutherland1

37 minutes ago, chubbs said:

 

I'm calling BS on the chart, a typical Tony Heller cherrypick. The charts below shows rankings for 80F days this year and the departure from normal for high temperatures. The only area that didn't reach 80 was Alaska. Most of the US has had an average or above average number of 80F days this year and almost the entire US had average or above average high temperatures.  Its been a warm year so far. Tony picked the best stat he could find to hide it.

Thank you for posting this information. The rankings make clear that Heller's chart is inaccurate. I went to the tool and exported the data. Just 0.3% of the stations were 4th lowest in terms of the number of 80F days through May 31. There is no plausible way 2024 ranked fourth lowest.

Tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny with temperatures topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Warm spots could again reach the middle 80s. Rain could arrive late Wednesday or Thursday.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral conditions are imminent.

The SOI was +4.23 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.635 today.

7 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Hi Don, All valid data points are meaningful....like this one. That does not of course imply that during our current warmer cycle that likely lower mean highs offset by higher mean lows will show overall warmth.

I didn't mean that the data in the chart is not meaningful. However, there are better ways to judge overall temperatures for subseasonal and seasonal periods. For example, using only metrics such as used by Heller, there could be a July where the temperature spikes to let's say 100° in Philadelphia, but the month overall could wind up cooler than normal. Heller's type of analysis would flag it as "hot" if he is scoring things based on 100° days. Meanwhile, there could be another July where the monthly anomaly is +2.5°, but the highest maximum temperature is 97°. If Heller is using 100° days, his analysis would flag the month as "cool." Period average highs, lows, and means do a better job in assessing the outcome for the period in question.

8 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I find the suppression in latitude fascinating - not a climate introspective, but for the Meteorology.  The pattern foot so far this spring has been limiting expansion, perhaps masked by seasonality.  In other words, folks would be inclined to suggest 'Hey, it's only May'.

Yeeeeah, but I suspect there's some relativity going on.  

My personal suspicion is that the background planetary environment passed through a global threshold at some point over the last 10 years - together with some fantastic singular warm anomaly events, when then aggregating those synergistic heat bomb phenomenon together with the early in 2023 total GW spike ( air and sea, everywhere!) ... I just think we're staring at a duh situation trying to understand the specter so vast the boundaries of which are just very obvious.  Kind of like a deer caught the headlights cliche ( so to speak..)  But maybe given time any such threshold to be defined. 

Within the confines of that new paradigm, we should be seeing more of these heat expansions prior to the solstice insolation - that's the relativity, in that we may merely be seeing a suppression of that new norm, endemic to this spring. 

I'm looking at the long lead telecons, out through the third week of June, and suppression of 'big heat' and/or SW expulsion events, N-E of St Louis ( ~ ) is favored.   Yet if that is materialized in the spatial synoptics ... I have a funny feeling that Mexico to Florida and S. TX ...possibly as high as Dallas to Alabama and the Carolinas from time to time, may swelter while ORD-BOS is mollycoddled with temperate spoils. 

More than likely, the ongoing marine heatwaves in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean are contributing to the excessive warmth seen in Florida, Cuba, Puerto Rico, etc. The dry conditions are likely amplifying the heat in northeast Mexico and southwest Texas. It is plausible that a global threshold has been passed. I suspect the outcomes during and after the developing La Niña will provide greater insight.

Brownsville experienced its warmest May on record. Brownsville's May was also warmer than any June on record. Some records from Florida, Puerto Rico, and Texas:

Del Rio demolished its May and Spring records. It also had its first May extreme heat event (Clarke et al., 2014 methodology) on record. Some highlights from Del Rio:

Numerous U.S. cities had their warmest #May on record, some by tremendous margins. In a number, May 2024 would have ranked among the 10 warmest Junes on record. In Brownsville and Fort Lauderdale, the May temperature exceeded both the May and June records.

May calendar day summary for New York City:

2 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Sorry to the climate alarmists on this site.....you won't appreciate this info.....but only 4% of USHCN stations have reached 80°F so far this year, which year-to-date, is fourth lowest on record since 1895 behind 2011, 1995 and 1935, and is about the same was 1924. The peak year was not surprisingly 1934. The top five years are 1934, 1936, 1969, 1939 and 1914.

Far more meaningful for evaluating temperatures than Tony Heller's chart are the mean temperatures, mean low temperatures, and mean high temperatures. There is virtually no chance that 2024 will rank as the 4th coldest January-May on record when all the data is considered. Once the NOAA compiles the May data, the January-May 2024 period will likely rank as among the 10 warmest in terms of mean temperatures and mean low temperatures and among the 25 warmest in terms of mean high temperatures for the contiguous United States

May finished with a mean temperature of 65.1° (1.9° above normal) in New York City.

A warm and generally dry weekend with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s lies ahead. Afterward, the first half of next week will be dry with temperatures topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Warm spots could reach the middle 80s. Rain could arrive late Wednesday or Thursday.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral conditions are imminent.

The SOI was +9.29 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.350 today.

On May 28 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.457 (RMM). The May 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.609 (RMM).

Numerous cities in Texas and Florida are en route to their warmest May on record. The May temperatures will likely exceed the warmest June temperatures on record in both Brownsville and Fort Lauderdale. In fact, May 2024 will be so warm in Fort Lauderdale that May 2024 will likely rank as the third warmest July there.

Tomorrow will start off with cool readings in the upper 50s in New York City and lower to middle 50s outside the City. The temperature will then recover to the middle and upper 70s. A wawrm weekend with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s lies ahead. Afterward, most of next week will be dry with temperatures topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Warm spots could reach the middle 80s.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral conditions are imminent.

The SOI was +15.95 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.169 yesterday.

On May 28 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.457 (RMM). The May 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.609 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.1° (1.9° above normal).

Showers and possible thundershowers are possible tonight into the early morning. Afterward, tomorrow and Friday will see highs mainly in the lower 70s. Readings could return to the upper 70s and lower 80s during the weekend.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral conditions are imminent.

The SOI was +15.95 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.147 today.

On May 27 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.609 (RMM). The May 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.691 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.2° (2.0° above normal).

Two photos of this morning's fog:

8 hours ago, MANDA said:

Hi Don-

Any idea what the longest stretch is for CPK of above normal months?  I would agree with you that is is hard to envision any of the next 3 months finishing below normal.

I'm not sure. The climate baseline changes, so there may be differences depending which baseline is utilized.

Showers and thundershowers are possible tomorrow. Afterward, Thursday and Friday will see highs mainly in the lower 70s. Readings could return to the upper 70s and lower 80s during the weekend.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral conditions are imminent.

The SOI was +11.20 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.411 today.

On May 26 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.691 (RMM). The May 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.584 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.3° (2.1° above normal).

2 hours ago, MANDA said:

Amazing how the sensitivity analysis fluctuated for the month of May.  Started out near 1 above, fell to almost normal and now we'll finish the month solidly above against the warmest normals we ever had.    When will we see the next below normal month?

Probably not until at least late fall. But that’s not guaranteed.

Tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. The temperature will rise into the lower 80s. A few warmer spots could top out in the middle 80s. Cooler air will begin to arrive on Wednesday with the temperature reaching the upper 70s. Thursday and Friday will see highs mainly in the lower 70s.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral conditions are imminent.

The SOI was +9.44 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.381 today.

On May 25 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.584 (RMM). The May 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.671 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.3° (2.1° above normal).

Showers and thunderstorms are likely tomorrow, even as there could be some sunshine. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely. Following the rainfall, Tuesday will likely see the mercury rise into the lower 80s. Cooler air will arrive to end the work week.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral conditions are imminent.

The SOI was +9.44 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.554 today.

On May 24 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.671 (RMM). The May 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.719 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.1° (1.9° above normal).

52 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Don, any thoughts on the Mid Atlantic and Northeast susceptibility to hurricanes this year?

I have some concerns for late summer/early fall if the pattern evolves as I suspect it will. 

Tomorrow will be another warm day with readings topping out mainly in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Temperatures will generally remain near or somewhat above normal through the remainder of May. Rain will overspread the region on Memorial Day. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral conditions are imminent.

The SOI was +1.17 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.772 today.

On May 23 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.719 (RMM). The May 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.691 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.1° (1.9° above normal).

Additional photos from the New York Botanical Garden:

A warm weekend lies ahead. Temperatures will top out mainly in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Temperatures will generally remain near or somewhat above normal through the remainder of May. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely on Memorial Day.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral conditions are imminent.

The SOI was -0.98 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.277 today.

On May 22 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.691 (RMM). The May 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.743 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.0° (1.8° above normal).

Temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s tomorrow. However, the humidity will be lower than it has recently been.
Temperatures will generally remain near or somewhat above normal from the weekend through the remainder of May. Periods of rain are likely on Memorial Day.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral conditions are imminent.

The SOI was -0.98 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.172 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.9° (1.7° above normal).

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Tough to keep track of all these rainfall records in recent years.

 

https://x.com/tararosenblum/status/1793651432765186428

Almost certainly many more to come in future years, as the climate continues to warm.