Bubbler86

A few short-term model verifications for this past snow using MDT as the spot. List below show approx snow forecasted at MDT and is listed in rank of which model appears to have done the best the morning on the snow. Just taking Nam, Rgem, GFS, Euro, and Icon...using the graphic output on Pivotal and rounding a bit. MDT recorded a Trace of snow. Good call by the NWS in not buying into the GFS this run as to short term forecasting. #1 Nam-No snow predicted. Some snow shown on TT in elevations near MDT. #1 Icon (TT)-No snow predicted #3 Euro-~ 1" #4 RGEM-~ 1" #5 GFS-4-6"

Lots of wet but not white on the LR GFS. I still have hopes for some type of follow up SLP on the Thanksgiving weekend front but that is not showing on the progs and the cold air is also becoming more limited in availability for a few days after Thanksgiving so about to give up on that. Apparently a few GEFS members do show the white Turkey a la King, Sandwich and Soup possibility

34 this Am

I think MU had a really good call. Sounds like the capital belt area may have over achieved but he ignored the modeled big snows. He is still not the number one Elliott though. Lol

I do not think you ever thought it was going to snow much in the historic district this time but check out Rou'ville. About 1/2 of the models, we normally look at had me getting close to WSW snows. Something that is not being talked about much. Pretty big bust for those models. Quick memory is that the Nam and Euro did the best here on this one with the Icon not far behind. GFS was off its rocker here, CMC was ridiculous as was its baby brother the Rgem. Here is the GFS from 24 hours ago. 4-6" up in here (not). Surely some of this can be attributed to elevation and the GFS inability to show that in its smoothed over maps but I do not think even the elevated areas here got much more than a couple inches. I am at 800 feet and I went up to close to 2000 feet and it was not 4-6".

The normal access is to go to Pen Mar Park and keep going up the road. It is beside Quirauk Mountain. When you get to near the top there is a guarded area you cannot enter (government) but there is a GREAT view in the public area right there. From where you are you would take 16 to Blue Ridge Summit, make a left at the main road then go back until you come to a curve going into Cascade/Ft Ritchie and you will see the sign for Pen Mar Park and take a right to head in the correct direction.

I was not paying attention, but we switched back to a pouring rain and back up to 33.

I bet Blue Ridge is 1-2" at this point. I know the road up to high rock is (grass/sides).

I am still interested in Thanksgiving weekend and a trailing low possibility.

Ahh Taneytown. I get in trouble from one person if I saw Tawney but then someone else scolds me if I say Taney. Lol.

We may be looking 8-12 if temps upstairs were colder along with the surface. We have about .6" of plain rain. This would have been Nov 15th 2018 all over again.

Pretty much the same here though it is still snow and 31. Roads are probably not caving this time of the year without rates or 20's.

Light snow here and 31. No road cave yet. Snow is very wet.

How much Candy did you snag?

Last call on the GFS trended toward the other suites favoring the far West and North LSV and SC.

We just switched over to fatties and 34. Streets will be fine but could get some white grass love.

I am a living, breathing example that moderate elevation means shit when you are on the west side of a mountain in PA with no other protection for a long way to your left. 800+ and heavy rain.

Still just plain jane rain here. Some flooding down at the bottom of my road as it is pouring. Heavy snow up from Pen Mar Park to High Rock. Going to have some great snowy mountain scenes from my front window tomorrow AM.

RGEM still sees a change to snow for western and some central LSV. In the minority now but holding to its call. Sort of a pinkish, red wave for those in the goods.

Heavy rain now. Over 1/2" in the last hour.

Moderate rain and 34 here now.

Not often the Nam (18Z) shows 1" for me and the Rgem and some others are 4-8".

@Eskimo Joe, I see you lurking. Today's is the 4th anniversary of the Eskimo Joe snow of 2018 in the LSV. Many here were poo-pooing the chances and you jumped in and called it right.

For those about to rock, the HRRR has the heavy-duty action starting just after dark with mixed and rain changing to snow for much of the Western LSV and far Northern LSV. Still an SC (Copyright @paweather 2022) special though

We get some large flakes every now and then but mostly rain still here.