Bubbler86

23 minutes ago, Anduril said:

Line looked so nice out near Pittsburgh this morning. Looks pathetic now. If we get .10in Im gonna be shook

Almost here.  The sky is very dark. 

The Roofus is not too bad for Western and Northern LSV today.  Not going to change any drought designations but will water the grass.  3K not too far off this depiction. No droughts at the shore.  This crappy trend of wet weekends there continues.  

17 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

We can use the rain .46 so far this month.

3X what MDT has had. USGS has to be getting their crayons out to color up the LSV on the drought map next week if nothing big happens today.   This map is as bad as I have seen it (have not looked at it prior to moving back to PA).  It was probably worse before the April rain but did not check it. 

Just now, mahantango#1 said:

You think that rain will advance north in Pa.?

I will not try to forecast 7 days out.  LOL.    But the GFS has a very unsettled period around that time.  CMC delays it a bit into early the following week. 

51 for the low here...normal or slightly BN at MDT with 53.     Does MDT break out of their recent BN streak today?    Meso's suggest the front will be too slow and MDT will get to the required 77 to go AN today as they top out near 80.  On the GFS, back to BN tomorrow then another week near normal heading into the holiday. 

Today is the warmest day, high temp wise, on the entire GFS run.   The areas gets caught in a slow moving ULL as we move into Met Summer. 

50 minutes ago, canderson said:

I bet 1,000 posts MDT hits 90 12+ this year. We look set up for heat wave after wave imo as we get into middle June. And we’ve roasted for months and months (minus May thank god) 

He did not comment on hitting 90, I was joking with my comment.   He only said less and shorter heat waves.  More of a normal summer.   If may can hold on for Bn that will be 3 of the last 8 months Bn.  Not great but not a 100 full on heatbox either. 

17 minutes ago, canderson said:

Climate outlooks have us at 40-50% to have above average temps this summer.  I would put the over under at 90+ around 12 days. 
 

https://www.axios.com/2023/05/19/hot-summer-ahead-us-climate-outlook

His comments were Norm to slight above and less heat waves.  Early summer not really summer but drier and hotter late summer, 

Joe Calhoun put the wham jam on a hot summer.  Do we get our first summer with no 90's? 

2 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

That flop was embarrassing lol…no other words for it.

It was not as embarrassing as Lisa Salters interview.  This Nikolai is pretty good guy, I have never watched him.  lol

Both the CMC and GFS would end the discussion of a record setting dry May (as depicted) when a whirling dervish low gets cut off over in the SE,  slowly moves up the coast and minors out.  CMC is less but probably enough to get us out of record territory.  To the surprise of no one, Memorial Day is ditched sun and fun wise for many beach communities again. 

17 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Made my night

And one of the worst flops ever.  The king is a cheater.   Bronny probably wearing a bag over his head today. 

Amongst all this actual scientific talk and trivia, the real important data is Nooners at 65 with a stiff breeze making it less than comfortable in the shade.  

20 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The combination of drought, unseasonable frosts, smoky skies and brilliant sunrises and sunsets is somewhat reminiscent of 1816. Not saying we're going to have a year without a summer this year.

Interesting trivia, the Year without a Summer, due to a Volcanic eruption, resulted in the writing of Frankenstein and may be the reason the bicycle was invented. 

https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/how-climate-works/mount-tambora-and-year-without-summer#:~:text=Snow fell in New England,The Year Without a Summer.”

We always debate heatwaves and whether it is 90 or above, or a certain number of degrees above Norm for a certain number of days...the US EPA defines a heatwave on the MINIMUM temp adjusted for humidity for the day, not the Max.  Here are some stats showing the increase of heat waves over recent time using the criteria below.  So, all of us were wrong using the EPA standards.   Not much to argue with in these stats.   No heat waves in June!

https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-heat-waves

Heat waves can be defined in many different ways. For consistency across the country, Figures 1 and 2 define a heat wave as a period of two or more consecutive days when the daily minimum apparent temperature (the actual temperature adjusted for humidity) in a particular city exceeds the 85^th percentile of historical July and August temperatures (1981–2010) for that city.

Actually I missed another stretch, 1967-1979. 

19 minutes ago, TimB said:

That’s the other thing. Actual extreme heat in western vs. central PA looks different. 97 and above isn’t uncommon at MDT, and in fact recently seems to occur in as many summers as it doesn’t. PIT has only reached 97 in one summer (2012) since 1995.

Quick eye count, MDT has reached 97 or above 14 times since 1995...so very close to 50/50 out of 29 years.   The lack of 100's is the thing IMO.    More humidity?   Different temp taking locations?   Unsure but the mantra of recent times being excessively hot are not all it stacks up to be when looked at it that way...the average is up but not extreme temps. 

54 minutes ago, TimB said:

That was two whole years with no 90s or even 89s. Probably impossible now, though I would have also thought it impossible then.

Outside the volcanic ash theory, I would agree at the UHI sites like the hothouse around and near Harrisburg.  Harrisburg is on a run of only one 100+ day in 11 years , if you count this year which is obviously not set yet.  That single 100 temp was right on 100 as well so as unimpressive 100 reading as you can get.   The last time this happened at MDT is 1967-1979.   So, we are setting a lot of yearly average records or near records without actual extreme heat.  That suggests to me that whatever the reason is, it is going to take something extraordinary to not hit 90 at least once at the UHI sites.   I do not think MDT has ever had a year without hitting 90 once.  1907 it was right on 90. 

1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

Just now getting over my nba depression with a couple of lakers losses

Lebron missing dunks and layups. 

7 minutes ago, TimB said:

2003 and 2004 were both lacking in the heat department in PA. The latter especially. A tied for record-fewest 3 90 degree days in 2004 at MDT, and PIT never got above 87 (a record).

2003 only performed slightly better in the heat department. 6 90 degree days at MDT, and PIT’s max was 88 (tied for 2nd with a couple years in the 1970s).

Imagine a whole year with no 90's.  Seems like a pipe dream now. (Outside volcanic sky covering issues) 

The latest drought map did not change much.  ITT and MJS still in D0.  A little surprised they are not banging down the doors of Harrisburg with the D0.  Would really expect it to expand next week if Saturday fails. 

4 minutes ago, canderson said:

@Itstrainingtime is on vacay so he better be 

Embedded bursts in Cali. 

7 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Looks like slim pickings in the rain dept tomorrow.

The meso's all have embedded bursts so maybe someone scores. 

42 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Quite a bit warmer this morning 44 here 

We made it down to 45.    Still 10BN w/MDT stats.    Someone may make a run for the 30's Sun Am.  More west LSV favored for that one.   Cashtown has been getting back into the W column with 42 this AM. 

Windows open LSV several nights in a row.  Even the warmer areas like MDT go well BN again tonight and again Sat night on the Meso's. 

4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yikes.  Euro and Canadian not looking any better.  Both with mega donut holes over the LSV.  That May record inching closer with every model run.

 

 

The gfs would possibly push us out of number one on May 31st but that is a 300+ map so...LOL.