Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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If we got tropical influence deform bands, anyone could flood. Even KRou. But I am just regurgitating models. Anyone who says they can 100% forecast what a tropical system will do 48 hours out, much less this amount of time, is selling you a line. What is DT saying? A hurricane can turn a cold front into a Hazel.
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Icon has a borderline Cat 3 strafing SC and NC. As predicted, there would be extensive damage from wind and flooding. 10+ feet surges. Myrtle could be basically destroyed Sanibel style depending how extensive the wind field is. Because it is just ramping up, the Icon does not have the hurricane forces going too far inland, but the surge would from watering pushed at high tide.
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.02 in the books. After the models have looked more optimistic for MYR, this Euro depiction is a vacation canceler. Allegiant will not fly down in that situation. GFS a flooder here.
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I do apologize for too many posts about a drought that does not affect all. Trying not complain vs. Discuss as well as root on others with model and rader trends. Not mad at anyone and any snarky comments I make (a couple toward pillow as of late) are directed at the situation and not the poster.
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Not sure USGS is going to pull your D1 if you can only muster .09 some days.
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It is the two mountain ranges. Synoptic weather systems are fed with their own pressure differences whereas convection is really subject to rapid terrain differences.
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I am guessing you have had 18-20" or so from June 2024-now. The last 3 summers combined I am around 18". 9 months...18". So more this summer than the last 3 summers here. I know you did not do well last summer. You go west of Waynesboro or even western Waynesboro and they have had 25-30" at least the last 3 summers.
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If you mean me directly, this has been a 6 year run. Hanover has received more rain this summer than I have received the past 2-3 combined. I would guess our northern posters have received 75-125" more than I have over the past 6 summers. If the person that sold me this house was a man, I would beat him to a pulp for not telling me about this. Educated guess that June-August from 2019 until now I have amassed a total of 35" or so. 21 months.....35". Normal would be somewhere around 80. HGR has around 45ish during that time and MDT is 70-80.
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Summer Becs/Biblical for Pillow and Marysville, 1/4" for us.
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Yea, I am going to second this opinion. Beer belly too.
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Come on HRRR, start pulling your weight.
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June-Aug/Sept yes.....
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The folks at NCEP/CPC are hitting refresh every 5 min checking the MDT temps. They never got their extreme heat but no heat wave at all would hurt.
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I did not reach 90 yesterday on the southern most point in PA so that helps average this out a bit.
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LOL, Yea I have learned I do not know where any of you are, but Mount Joy proper did get some good rain. But this reminds me of the Jimmy episode from Seinfeld. Anyway, welcome to the team. JNS, myself, and Anotherman amongst others are here to share our woes. LOL
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MDT is indeed short for their 90 right now. They have 2-3 hours to catch up.
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How about a butter knife?
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The second half of the first half of Aug (yea that makes sense!) continue to look like one where we may see posts "We are going to be paying for this in Sept."
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Welcome to the team. If we miss this weekend the drought map is going to get more colorful.
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River life. It was nothing until it got there.
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Mount Joy Mayhem.
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I cannot think of a worse spot for the LSV/S Central PA official recording to be done beside the one entity in the area that both alters temps and precip. But yes, triangulate may be better for temps. but precip not so sure however you need a MUCH larger area to triangulate. MDT is my official station, it is the official station of areas an hour to your north, etc.
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@Jns2183 you seem to want to see this in action so the radar from Noon to 12:30 shows cells pop as they rise into the South Mountain chain to my SW, dying as they descended through the first valley albeit it a small dip down, then expanding again as they rise into the second chain.
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I love this look if it happened... conveyer of moisture feed from the Trop storm interacting with a front. That has flood possibilities. That front pushes it away afterwards.
