Bubbler86

Well the board is dead so going to play a little game...many have probably seen those EC Ensemble percentage maps Will posts on the MA. It shows the chances of large areas getting 3" or more of snow in a given period. They do not always make sense because some ensemble members will show snow in an area then that map show a 0 percent chance. I am going to give my percentages of a given area getting 1" or more of snow in 3 different chances over the next 8-9 days. The sole reason for doing this is to point out we still could see snow in the next 10 days and @daxx cannot really call it a snow map :-). This Wed Night: Somewhere in the Southern Half of the forum--20% Somewhere in the Northern Half of the Forum----80% This Sunday Night: Somewhere in the Southern Half of the forum--20% Somewhere in the Northern Half of the Forum----40% Thursday-Friday the 20th and 21st: Somewhere in the Southern Half of the forum--40% Somewhere in the Northern Half of the Forum----20%

So maybe I am missing something but the chart should say lowest after each rank I guess. Note that they do use Met Winter for their rankings so by that definition Winter is down to its last 2 1/2 weeks.

Today's Icon and some other models the past few days are trying to enhance a surprise wave going under us Sunday evening with just enough cold air to make it interesting. GFS is not on board but that may be a good thing.

They will be in sad shape Saturday Morning.

10 days in we are a bit over plus 10 overall at MDT The min's last week got down further at MDT that forecast which limited some of the end result damage. +17 last night at MDT. Lancaster AP station is +11.3 for the month so far. We stand a chance of ending the month with an overall double digit departure despite several below normal days later this week. Not even the frying pan month of February 2018 was double digit so if we end up double digit that would be quite a feat. Noticed that the Lancaster station recorded an 82 in Feb 2018. Wow.

46 and almost calm winds this Am...feels like its 60.

You get used to it. It's the people that you cannot get used to.

Just make sure you very carefully pick where you live. Most of Florida is so very low class but much more expensive than living up here. Outside the fact that they do not have state and local income taxes I find it hard to find anything down there that is less expensive than here. Housing is way out of hand down there again.

Finishing up my second winter at this new location they have only had to plow here one time and that was not even in winter...it was the Nov 2018 Turkey Snow. They drove the plow around another time or two during the last winter but it was a pity plow moving rain soaked slush off the road.

12Z still brings a coating to 1" to the LSV before changing to rain but I am taking it with a grain of salt. There are lots of salt grains available since the roads do not need them. Hardy-Har-Har

It is Valentines week after all.

GFS forecast lows Friday night. Supported by the CMC and Icon...not by Euro.

I have seen other people saying the models have been doing well but I think those comments were in the sense of mid range big picture. For most of PA I do not think they have been doing well especially short term. We each look at our own areas the closest but PA in general has not been forecast well in my opinion. I saw people buying out the limited mulch at our local Lowes yesterday. People are noticing that its really not cold out and starting spring activities.

My memory is not perfect but this will be the first winter I can remember that there will be no frozen ground under my feet. It never froze much beyond an inch or two and that was a fleeting freeze that only last part of a day.

I noticed the models overstated the snow for today....they changed up at the last minute. 24 hours ago they had snow in the northern part of the LSV and all of a sudden it almost all changed to rain the 0Z suite last night.

On my flight home Friday, apparently right beside tornadoes, we made it from Orlando-Sanford Airport to Hagerstown in less than 90 minutes. Its usually about 120-125 minutes. I had heard of tailwinds helping decrease time to fly but that was the most extreme example I have been part of.

We took a walk today and had to swat away gnats. At this point we have not had a winter and with only 3 weeks left its possible we don't have one at all.

18Z actually starts off as snow for the LSV now.

Yea, and the same map at 6Z had all snow. The process has been going the same as all the other systems this year, save for that one that surprised York county with big snow. Backing off as it gets closer to the event. I think we need more than it passing under us. We need a high to our North East to hold in cold air. The Icon from yesterday morning.

Yea, that does not sound like it would be something that would be a fun life. I do not blame you for changing.

Good Luck with it. Changing jobs, worrying about jobs, etc...puts weather into perspective of it not being all that important (unless you have to drive in it).

Unfortunately with the lack of cold air we would need it to come way under us using the temp maps I am seeing and I would not think it would. The 12Z Icon had cold air pressing in from the North East but not sure I would see the Nam doing that. The High on the 12Z Icon is now apparently gone on the 18Z Icon. Frustrating.

The problem I see is the temps in addition with the forming slip already being a bit high in latitude. But as I said in my other post I was more making fun of my post form earlier today.

It was a play on my previous post from this AM where someone in the MA forum said the 100+ hour Nam looked good.

18Z NAM would be disappointing in the next few panels after 84. On the flip side that WAA snow keeps creeping further and further south in PA Sunday night.