Bubbler86

We are not in emergency mode or whatever it is called. Free for all.

Piggly Wiggly lives on in the South East and WV. They are mostly in lower income or lower populated towns now.

Good memories for a lot of us. I stopped there a few years ago. Would never dare risk staying over night though.

Pedro's Weather Report Chili today, Blizzard Next Week. You never sausage a snow map.

Cannot blame the plants and trees. Tomorrow will be the first day it does not get to 35 at MDT since January 21st. 23 consecutive days of 35 or higher of which 21 of them were 40 or higher.

Put it in the books. The Valentines Day snow storm of 2020.

That's a major win this season. Some fun white water rafting out there.

I like everyone to feel good about stuff so going to insert some weenie "It will get better" phrases here such as- Cold air will come from above, you just need the rate to increase, with this dewpoint I am sure to be all frozen, the HRRR is pulling a coup and changing us all to snow, it is me or does the radar look like it is back building the snow, The MA forum is reporting snow so its coming your way.

Voyager mentioned this the other day but we are having an occasional flake mix in now but about 800 feet up it is mostly snow per this pic.

Snowing out here now....a minor miracle.

We dropped several degrees when the rain started but so light right now I am not looking for flakes but still think we could see a few here...no accums of course. Lt rain and 39 right now.

Dr. No is saving us a lot of typing for 7 days from now with its Rust Belt Runner. He's like the Oprah of the Met world...Detroit You get rain!!! Lake Erie You Get Rain!!! Mt Washington You get Rain!!! The N/W corner of Maine You get Rain!! It does usher in one of the more impressive Eastern Half of the US Cold fronts for the season but the cold air evacuates faster than the crowd at an intermission of a Risk Astley concert. The Precip map for the weekend of the 22nd is almost comical with the only lower 48 precip being Ocean Effect (fake) rain in the Space Coast of Florida.

I never seem to be able to make heads or tails of the decisions for the advisories. We have had two this year when it was very evident we were going to stay well above freezing and our zones had no mention of any winter precip yet your zone forecast calls for straight freezing rain and no advisory. I have to think any real ice concerns are going to be very localized and not widespread but if something like the NAM's depiction of several hours of mashed potato snow happened then things could get hairy.

The wind would be changing tomorrow between 7AM and noon but the reinforcing push of cold air is not coming until Friday.

Its actually already entering Franklin county though I bet some is virga.

It pretty much is based on the stuff I am seeing though the NAM keeps trying to start it off as a quick snow burst for some. On the subject of temps the low Friday night keep getting adjusted up and up. A few more adjustments and @Voyager flowers will survive after all. BUT people in the North could really see a nice snowfall tonight before changeover. A sloppy 1-4"

Icon will not give up on our Sunday snow chances so still something to watch I believe. Especially with our current snow jonesing.

No doubt the Pivotal map can be a bit underdone especially the Kuchera one which is what I posted. It is good though for removing the transitional areas like you mentioned. The radar panels never show frozen anywhere in the LSV on the Nam which matches up better on the Pivotal map.

Yea I was speaking specific to the LSV as I thought that was what we were talking about for this one. It did not do too well down here. It had 2-4" over my area and we did not get a flake. The TT map is so messed up sometimes that it shows snow where no snow or sleet is shown on the radar panel.

My reason is somewhat based on something more than my own intution. I will never try to forecast based on LR future indices and indicators that are often so wrong they cover up the true nature of forecasting. I think it is valuable to learn from them when looking after the event to help forecast but our SR and MR models have issues with getting apparent weather right day to day there is no way I am worrying about 10 day Ao forecasts. So my reason behind thinking the LSV gets some more snow is the roller-coaster nature of our temps this winter. Its not like we have not had temps cold enough for snow...we have...the storm track has ditched our best efforts to use the temps. Some of it AO based and some of it just plan bad luck. But one consistent theme has been that warm ups have been fairly short lived and mostly inspired by the negative storm track. If that trend continues it should be cold enough for snow well into March.

Its that messed up TT algorithm showing these totals though the NAM does show a nice 1-4" hit for many North and West of us. The Nam did pretty poorly last Friday so taking it with a grain of salt and it hurts me to say that. Here is the NAM on Pivotal.

I still think the LSV gets 5+ more inches but maybe not in Met winter.

That North Centralish area of Texas always gets noticed when they get snow but they are in a great position to have cold air dumped on them when a trough is centered in the middle of the country. In '96 they had 10" of snow in April! With that said they should not average more than us. LOL.

18Z makes it quite cold next Friday but no snow as a Big Mama high squishes everything...but that is ok for now. No cutting storm is a better look even if no storm at all for now.