Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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HRRR now has several lollipops of what appear to be double digit amounts. -
Your last 90 for awhile hopefully.
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Got up to 89 here today making it the hottest day since last Monday. Down to 84 now as the clouds thicken. I just looked at the Euro its not all that hot through the next 10 days. Could be hoping for too much though.
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12Z Euro QPF totals. Deepens the system to 988 as it nears our locale. Tropical, Extra-Trop, whatever. Jersey Shore gets almost no fresh water but gusts in the 80's.
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I will be enjoying my 50's this week. Potential upper 40's in Bradford!
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It could be wrong but the HRRR (if we cannot trust in the HRRR under 24 hours on a tropical event when can we trust it?) contines to advertise the opportunity for fairly significant rains well in advance of the storm. This includes basically the whole Eastern half of the state.
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It would be a fairly big surprise to see areas like CTP have sustained 40+ winds albeit there are only in that under 20% group.
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First and final call. This call will be focusing on the eastern half of the state: Voyager: 4-6" HIstoric Maytown: 3-5" Daxx 3-5" Nut 3-5" paweather5 3-5" Paweather 2-4" Paweather1 2-4" Paweather2 2-4" Pawatch 2-4" wmsptwx 2-4" Blizz 2-4" Carlisle 2-4" Cashtown 2-4" (Much of it front end WAA) Bubbler86 2-4" (Much of it front end WAA)
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I did not mention it all weekend. LOL.
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The CAD is also a bit weak coming into the storm. Notice the red lined area showing some signature of it running down the spine of the apps but it is stale and going to be washed out.
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10-1 but thinking we have sun angle issues so only on the grass and car tops.
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Yep, usually drought busters and not Hazel like catastrophes.
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Yep, totally agree.
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HRRR continues to insist you and I are getting 1-3" before the system even comes ashore.
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The end of the heatwave (though it is not reached 90 at my place in the last 7 days) is a nice bonus of the post Trop Storm week coming up.
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A nice 63 degree morning here. About 1/4" of rain for the weekend. Hoping I get fringed enough to break 1". HRRR drops 2-3" on me before 7PM tonight.
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I was looking at trends. To me getting 1" would be missing out on the big rains.
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That's why his grass is dying. He has routed all his irrigation efforts to the 7 leafed plants. LOL KIDDING!
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At some point we need either constant 2-4" weeks or a soaking 5-10" long term rain. Its too late for me to worry about grass anymore. The summer destroyed all my work and I am going to have to pay to start over. I am worried about all my friends wells though. Water levels are back down to their late July lows.
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You, myself and @Cashtown_Coop have the potential to completely miss out. Being on the outside of a Tropical Storm means drier than normal. I believe KHGR is currently at their larger ever deficit for this late in the year coming in close to 13" below "normal" for 2020.
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Starting to look more and more like a Susq and East event as to serious rains.
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I do think the Training Time, Daxx's and Voyagers of the forum could be in for some flood warnings.
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You are probably on a pace to have 100$ percent more qpf this summer vs. parched. I would guess you are what 20-30" since early May?
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18Z GFS Op wails on most of the LSV
