Cornsnow
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Everything posted by Cornsnow
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That's not good right? If it's in Asheville it does not bode well for other areas, correct?
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Pretty sure this was always the case. Very dry air at the NC/SC state line that will take a while to saturate. I still believe like always the battle line will be I-85 give or take 10 miles either way.
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Regardless that amount of sleet and ZR would worry me. If it busts just slightly with the ZR to rain ratio it would be some nice power outages there.
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I think they are banking on the warm nose not being as strong. Others are saying it will be and cut into totals big time. Who knows maybe we get lucky up that way. I tend to think it will be somewhere in between with snow and then sleet/zr.
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Having lived through a terrible ice storm in 2004 just below Columbia, SC and seeing and hearing the popping sounds of acres of Pines being destroyed I would rather have cold rain than ice. Not to mention how long we were without power. No thanks.
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Devastating if that verifies.
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Not sure, that's why I posed the question.
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When do we start using much shorter range models like the HRRR, RAP and others? I thought lots of models like the NAM, GFS, Euro are not as accurate when you are literally inside 12 hours or less from go time?
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Southern boy born and raised and not a young one at that now that I am older. I've been burned plenty by the warm nose and severely disappointed. It is just not really a way to go through life. It's miserable and has to suck. As much as people say that is only how they react to snow I am sure there is at least a small reflection of how that corresponds to how they are in daily life. That's all I am saying .
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Still not completely over. We really do not know what the complete outcome will be. Sure if you are further south on the normal battleground it could be worse but there is no guarantee. We still need to see how it plays out. I would not be surprised either way at this point.
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I just do not get all the negativity. Sure it may or may not snow/sleet/ice or whatever but some people get so happy when the negative forecasts verify or start coming in. That's when their post counts start going up and and they seem to become giddy. I would hate to to through life that way. It must be down right miserable.
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Is this really any different than any other storm. We really do not know. It is rinse and repeat. Eroding CAD, rain/snow/sleet/ice line setting up somewhere along the 85 corridor. Climatology always wins here except for every once a decade it seems. It all depends on the track of the low and strength of the CAD and we really do not know how it sets up until go time!
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I am in Mooresville as well. I feel like we have a better shot but you never really know. We could all get a nice cold rain.
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Look at that gradient/cutoff around the 85 corridor!
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To be expected with this type of setup. Classic southern snowstorm with the battle lines drawn 15-30 miles on either side of I85.
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I've been around for a while. It still just fascinates me how much hysteria and angst this causes some. We have the sunshine pumpers and the debbie downers going full effect in these threads.
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It is crazy how irrational and upset people get over snow, or the lack thereof. I mean it is just weather in the grand scheme of things.
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Sorry, I was not meaning it in a bad way. I spent the first 21 years of my life down there and my family still lives down that way. So I know first hand how it feels.
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I am really pulling for you but man it is hard to get even flurries down your way. Ice Storm's are more common than snow down there.
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I really feel like this will be our typical storm. Models waffling but the players are in place. Outside of the mountains it depends on the placement of the high and the strength of the CAD. The R/S line will set up in its usual place 20 or so miles north or south of I85 and we end up with 1-6 inches in those areas above. Just my thoughts right now.
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I find that really hard to believe. Maybe take a 3rd or 4th of that and it might verify outside of the mountains, IMO.
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I think tonight's and tomorrow mornings runs will be key here. Pieces finally starting to get sampled.
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Past storms for sure. In our area knowing the past climatology plays a big role in forecasting. Not just spitting out what a model reads. Just go back and look at the Jan 2017 storm.
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Probably means the north side just south of Huntersville....
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I think at this point you have to look at climatology and the past storms and I am sure that is what they are doing. There are many more cases of a warm nose busting these model totals than there are of them actually verifying. Not saying it cannot happen but they are just being ultra conservative probably from past experiences.
