Cornsnow
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Everything posted by Cornsnow
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Still not completely over. We really do not know what the complete outcome will be. Sure if you are further south on the normal battleground it could be worse but there is no guarantee. We still need to see how it plays out. I would not be surprised either way at this point.
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I just do not get all the negativity. Sure it may or may not snow/sleet/ice or whatever but some people get so happy when the negative forecasts verify or start coming in. That's when their post counts start going up and and they seem to become giddy. I would hate to to through life that way. It must be down right miserable.
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Is this really any different than any other storm. We really do not know. It is rinse and repeat. Eroding CAD, rain/snow/sleet/ice line setting up somewhere along the 85 corridor. Climatology always wins here except for every once a decade it seems. It all depends on the track of the low and strength of the CAD and we really do not know how it sets up until go time!
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I am in Mooresville as well. I feel like we have a better shot but you never really know. We could all get a nice cold rain.
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Look at that gradient/cutoff around the 85 corridor!
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To be expected with this type of setup. Classic southern snowstorm with the battle lines drawn 15-30 miles on either side of I85.
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I've been around for a while. It still just fascinates me how much hysteria and angst this causes some. We have the sunshine pumpers and the debbie downers going full effect in these threads.
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It is crazy how irrational and upset people get over snow, or the lack thereof. I mean it is just weather in the grand scheme of things.
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Sorry, I was not meaning it in a bad way. I spent the first 21 years of my life down there and my family still lives down that way. So I know first hand how it feels.
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I am really pulling for you but man it is hard to get even flurries down your way. Ice Storm's are more common than snow down there.
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I really feel like this will be our typical storm. Models waffling but the players are in place. Outside of the mountains it depends on the placement of the high and the strength of the CAD. The R/S line will set up in its usual place 20 or so miles north or south of I85 and we end up with 1-6 inches in those areas above. Just my thoughts right now.
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I find that really hard to believe. Maybe take a 3rd or 4th of that and it might verify outside of the mountains, IMO.
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I think tonight's and tomorrow mornings runs will be key here. Pieces finally starting to get sampled.
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Past storms for sure. In our area knowing the past climatology plays a big role in forecasting. Not just spitting out what a model reads. Just go back and look at the Jan 2017 storm.
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Probably means the north side just south of Huntersville....
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I think at this point you have to look at climatology and the past storms and I am sure that is what they are doing. There are many more cases of a warm nose busting these model totals than there are of them actually verifying. Not saying it cannot happen but they are just being ultra conservative probably from past experiences.
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Plenty of time to adjust that forecast.
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Are we worried about convection from the gulf coast yet?
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Most storms are are right? Or it seems that way. I have some friends up on the top side of Mooresville.... up above HWY 150. Think it would be better up that way for snow?
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Agree 100%. A trend would be over all models (or most) for a couple of time periods for me as well.
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I am just looking at the setup. I think it is important to remember that with most storms here in the south we will always have some WAA. It's a matter of where it sets up... that determines who is happy and who is sad. It just turns out that most of the time ( not all of time ) it is I-85. Not saying that is the case this time but I proceed with caution on all storms because of past events. This has burned us too many times to not think it could bust in some places showing huge totals right now.
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77 or 85?
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This is pretty crazy. It is the NAM at hour 84 but man it is pretty. Not sure what to believe now.
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You are correct, I do not seeing going away but these totals are crazy.
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Until the energy is onshore and being sampled I am having a hard time believing any of this. We have seen this song and dance before only lose it in the next few days.
