96blizz

21 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Posting from Chaumont (bit NW of Watertown)...moderate snow here this morning, about 3” OTG. Ground was bare when we arrived last night. 

Back to the non winter news...Chaumont Bay has been totally ice free the last week. Father in law reports never seeing this in mid-Jan in his 70+ years being here (parts of the bay are quite shallow, no business being open this time of year). I guess that’s what +11 departures get you from Christmas to now. 

I also heard from a couple people back in WNY that their magnolias started budding, others report opening taps on maple trees to start some maple production. Surely all signs of the apocalypse. 

I saw daffodils starting to come up here. I believe it all. 

Really neat to watch the radar slowly build this AM. Should be a fun day at times with this wind. Flakes starting to fly in Skaneateles. 

I swear I didn’t hack into the RGEM!  What a bullseye for me...

RGEM running and has tonight’s low in northern PA!!!

Smart move based on guidance like RGEM. WWA up. Let’s go!!!

3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Syracuse gonna start making its move? 

They could if LES sets up right. I’m south of SYR in Skaneateles- and this is a perfect NW flow set up for us plus we have about 950’ of elevation. 
 

that map is 10:1 too - so over a foot from Thursday to Tuesday is looking more and more plausible. 

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Euro map?

Still LES ongoing in favored NW flow areas. This includes Thursday too. 

3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Euro unchanged..

It’s actually a bit better for the persistently less snowy central finger lakes. 

2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

1st system is the better one for Syracuse. 

 

I always thought this.  That Low Position this weekend just kept getting worse and worse as the week went on. 

2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

It's funny how it shows mixing at ksyr with heavy snow all around it lol

Upstate UHI!

10:1

Using KSYR at 10:1 it was approximately:

3.3” on Thursday 

3.8” on Saturday 

and looking like another 3ish on Sunday. 

With some good ratios it’s not terrible...

Euro is pretty far N and W. Meh. 

2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Euro came in South for Thursday

 

Quite a bit. Hoping this helps carve the path for the weekend. Seems the euro and GFS are inching closer to a middle ground...

GEM much better than GFS FWIW which I know isn’t a ton. 

4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Going to be a strong band somewhere just north of the mix line, as it currently stands. 

We'll see in a couple days when SR guidance is available..

The best tasting part of the steak is right along the line of fat...

8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Still a lot of snowfall on the 6z...this run also looks strange to me how the LP jumps from the middle of the country to Wisconsin then basically moves ENE from there. Still not a lot of warmth per the models but I'm guessing with this run we thump, mix, then lighter snows/lake enhanced backside. 

Remarkably we could have two systems in a row where we rain/snizzle during the night (Overnight Wednesday/Saturday) and snow THREE times during the day (Thursday/Saturday/Sunday).

i imagine that hasn’t happened too often up here. 

1 minute ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

My area is a snow repellent this yr, so far, but every so often we get thrown a bone, like that one meso in November, lol, so maybe, just maybe this wed-thurs event can be that once every so often, lol!

We can’t overlook that one. It’s got a lot of potential to give some areas several inches with that flow and the lakes so anomalously warm. I posit many could see more from that than the weekend!  Good luck!

Obviously it won’t see the LES amounts correctly too (esp this far out - errr - ever).

Will be some serious high ratio fluff on Sunday. Can’t wait for that while the football games are on!  It’s been too long!

2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Nam cuts through CNY on Thursday, rain/mix flipping to snow..

Neat little event because the rain would be overnight but the snow would be during the day on Thursday!

Would love nothing more than a snowy weekend. Good beer, great sports, a fire and some games with my young kids after we play outside in it!!  

@wolfie09 thanks for all the maps and posting you do. It’s truly appreciated. 

Just now, wolfie09 said:

Yeah, Thursday holds some sneaky potential between enhancement and NW flow lake effect. Have to see what SR guidance shows starting tomorrow ..

Yeah - I’m talking both Thursday and Sunday/Monday. The set up is beautiful on that NW flow. 

2 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but there's no way we stay snow very long with a 994 LP over BUF . We either need a weaker low and quicker xfer or a more W-E trajectory about 100 mile further south w/quick xfer.

Classic thump to snizzle to lake effect...

I really think there could be just as much LES as synoptic snow for some of us as well...