96blizz

This isn’t a bad look. High ratio would pile up under a lake enhanced decaying deformation band.

Look at where the Low ends up. Epic journey.

You can’t make this shit up. Lol

Looks like some nice backend there which is what many will have to bank on to the East.

The GFS is putrid for many. I should never have quit drinking a year ago…

Love this idea. As of now, for near SYR it looks like a thump to sleet to snizzle/dry and then back to high ratio snow off the lake and from the decaying deformation band.

How dare you!!!

This forum is awesome. When we get a bad run y’all just make jokes and hit the laugh button. It’s refreshing! It’s just f*cking snow!

Just looked and that was an anomaly. The 0z and 12z before it looked more like this. But it’s the Ukie, so I’m not excited.

The Ukie has been extremely consistent. Will give it that.

Who the heck doesn’t love a little properly placed warm tongue?

On the bright side - if some of us get pounded by sleet - there will be some major staying power! The downside is I may throw out my back.

Plenty of time… The backside could surprise us too. Happened last year. We got walloped and with a track like that the globals wouldn’t see it and the mesos aren’t in range. That may be our show.

Occludes back into VT

GFS with this track would have one heck of a backside.

This map literally follows the 540 line for output. I looked closely. North and west of it snow. The rest, sleet. …long range rgem so we have to just keep waiting for that kind of transparency.

I feel like I’ve been tracking this for two weeks and the NAM is still in its longest range….

Yeah. I lived in NW NJ in the hills before I moved and those warm tongues were always undermodeled by the globals. We would get sleet all the time - temps at like 25 or so - then flip back as the low pulled away.

Posted about this just earlier. This is my sneaking suspicion after having lived with east coast snowstorms for 37 years. 9 times out of 10 there is a last minute SE tick…. As you may have seen, I wrote years ago in my parody Guidelines: “Phase 6: The Last Minute SE Ticks You wake up having impregnated your spouse. You’re exhausted and hungover – but you don’t care because you went to bed with 9 versions of the NAM, the GEM-LAM, RGEM and 13 of the 9,913 SREF plumes showing you’re going to get smoked. You roll over out of bed and grab your charged phone or iPad (or both so you’re ready to track it inside all day versus going out and actually enjoying the fruits of your labor) and, O.M.G. The models ticked EAST? WTF!!!! HOW can this happen? (by the way, it f*cking happens EVERY time!!!). The NAM cut back for all areas, ESPECIALLY N and W. The RGEM is a shell of its former self. Meanwhile, the GFS has never budged (and will be wrong) and the Euro has stayed pretty consistent. But now you’re so pissed you want to reach into your partner’s private area and take back your future snow baby. This storm isn’t worth it. Then you look at the radar and, like being high on shrooms, you realize that the models are completely wrong. It’s snowing in Nipplehair, TN. No model had that!!! It’s snowing in Marryyourbrother, WV. Ha! Nothing was even close to that! But guess what? The models are going to be right and someone who thought they would see snow will be smoking cirrus. For most, it may just be a slight cutback – but it doesn’t feel like it. It’s the final gut punch of this wild ride but, alas, for most it will snow and will be beautiful and all of the above will have been worth it. So the next time we start tracking one of these bad boys from 360 hours out, give this a read and know it will evolve this way to a degree every single time.”

I know it’s not 100 percent popular here, but having had storms like this for most of my life living in NJ, I still believe this jogs SE a bit in the next 48 hours…

6z GFS looks to pretty much hold serve includes the backside lake effect for favored areas. Low tracks east of euro so less dry slot issues…

10:1 so I don’t get in trouble.

Phenomenal consistency.

Definitely agree. But I will say living in NJ for 37 years if my life - wherever that deformation band sets up will see some insane totals! Just hard to pin down and it won’t be a huge area.