WxUSAF

18 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

GFS really trying for Saturday. 

Ha, so close. 

1.36" total rain

 ^yeah, that's straight up pretty gorgeous.  

Haven't seen any 12z MJO-related products, but on the face of it, it seems to contradict with a respectable wave moving through phases 3-6.  But, the MJO isn't the only factor and isn't alway the dominant factor so who knows?  I hope its right, because that's the best H5 pattern we've had for snow in a couple years.  

12z EPS 500mb pattern looks quite nice heading toward mid month.  Not seeing any signs of MJO phase 3-6 returning a Nina-like pattern yet.  -AO (--AO?), -NAO, -EPO, +PNA.  Trough axis over the eastern Plains/MS valley.  

With any "good" pattern advertised at range, it doesn't mean we will score.  But it means we at least have the CHANCE to score.  When we have some SE death ridge and/or a blue ball over AK, it's a shut the blinds pattern and there's no chance.  The pattern going forward, starting tomorrow really, and at least going through the ~14th (assuming things stay more or less the same) offers CHANCES.  Some years we maximize our opportunities and others we really miss on.  Jan '16 was our one good window that year and we maxed it out.  The last few years, we've mostly not hit on our opportunities.  Hopefully this year we can.  

Amazing what a -EPO can do.  GEFS has all of Canada above normal at 850mb on Dec 10 and then all below normal by the 15th.  

Gfs and last nights para-gfs are really close to threading the needle for next weekends storm. Weak initial wave pulls in just enough cold air and then the second stronger wave gets really close to giving us precip with a cold column. I thought that was dead, but maybe not yet. Ggem is wrapped and inland up again. 

Also good support for a cold blast early next week and maybe some northern stream energy passing through. 

At greenbelt today for work actually and just had thunder 

Well, since we’re cancelling winter and/or December, renewed convection in phase 4-6 would be suboptimal. 
 

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Nooooo Phin is way more optimistic. Ji has probably canceled winter four times by now.

Well, a horrific year at his new house is like 200% of MD climo. He knows he will see snow several times. We have to assume that every time it snows here may be the last time ever.

36 minutes ago, nj2va said:

New England forum seems on edge.  On November 29, too.

Lol Phin is like New England Ji now

After a couple days of pattern breakdown at the end of the EPS, the end of today’s 12z run still looks pretty good.  -AO/-NAO and a ridge just off the west coast. Broad CONUS trough east of the Rockies. Looks overrrunning like.

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The MJO living in high amp warm phases waa a big part of our problems recently.  One positive of a strong Nina is typically that suppresses the MJO. 

Paul Roundy apparently saw this Nino-like period coming based on his MJO-based sub seasonal forecasting. He’s expecting a Nina-like pattern with a SE ridge for later in December, but has that evolving into a -NAO in January. 

5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

If you use the h5 vorticity maps and fast fwd frame by frame ( I use wxbell) the shear number of shortwaves interacting is nuts . Do it with the op Euro or Gfs . Point is ...its busy . I wouldn't be surprised if a clipper or a storm pops in the near medium range( day 4-5) or short range (inside 3 days ). Far from boring.  Really all one could ask for in  early December .

As @Bob Chill always said (btw, he needs to get his ass in here), most of our events pop up under the D6 time frame.  Rarely do we have a long tracking event that's picked out at D8-12.  13-14 winter was notorious for events that showed up around D4-5.  

31 and frosty

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

You mowing asphalt? You really should stick to grass .

 

Ugh...I was being nice and mowing the common space in the center of the culdesac. It has a sewer cover. Never had a problem before but I must have gone on just the wrong angle. 

27 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I don’t even bother “winterizing” my mower.  I mow to mulch up leaves in December and February most years.

I don’t either. Today however, my mower blade hit a manhole cover and broke the bracket holding the blade. So...will have to fix that before the spring. 

32 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Too bad we aren't in the NE. 

Speak for yourself Mr. 70 feet ASL

I also did a final mow of my lawn and mowed it short. Those 0.1-0.3” events are gonna look NOICE on my lawn this winter. 

Looks good on these maps even though Maryland is like one pixel 

3 minutes ago, yuki neko said:

It's probably Prunus x subhirtella 'Autumnalis' which produces a sparse fall bloom. 

Thanks!

There is some very confused species of cherry tree around me that is partially blooming right now

35 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gefs has up to 1/2" mean snowfall through Tuesday 

Definitely some flurry chances Tuesday evening it looks like. West side of the high slopes could get something measurable with some luck perhaps. 

Dry tinder-like trees is why I cut mine fresh and wait until December to do it. Usually it’s alive through Christmas at least. 

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Was that the one where it showed in the evening somewhat unexpectedly?

I know for MBY, it started snowing in the late morning, but didn’t accumulate much until afternoon and evening. Stopped around 8-9pm I think. 

12 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Wow it’s been that long.  I remember that event.  My wife and I walked around the neighborhood looking at decorations.  We can only hope..

Some interesting similarities to that winter. Also a Nina. Had the decent early December snow and the then hardly anything for a long while. Had a late winter SSW that got us an early March snow/ice storm.