strongwxnc

GSP AFD .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 am EST Thursday: The forecast will not change a great deal this morning, with all models on track for a major winter storm. The operational models are in relatively good agreement with the 500 mb low center track atop our area late weekend. The GFS remains a few hours faster than the ECM/CMC solutions, but they all lift the system across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia late Sunday and Sunday night. The ECM/CMC mean sea level pressure prognostics have a slightly farther south/southeast track of the associated surface low center, mainly across the coastal plain. This is favored given the strength of the low-level ridge north of the forecast area and it will likely contribute to slightly colder profiles and boundary layer temperatures than indicated on the operational GFS. Anticipate that the zero degree 850 mb isotherm may pivot near the NC/SC line to create a very sharp gradient in snowfall from the NC foothills down into the Upstate, but this remains highly subject to change. The current thinking is that most of NE GA, Upstate SC, and the Charlotte metro area will see some degree of warm nosing to undercut potential snow totals and generate more sleet, with more freezing rain especially likely at times along and southeast of I-85. 850 to 700 mb frontogenesis will likely sharpen up along and east of the mountains to enhance precipitation rates Sunday morning. The phasing process of this southern system back into the northern stream may accelerate the low passage. That could be a slight limiting factor, but it may not matter much given the otherwise excellent potential for significant wintry accumulations across the region as it stands. Conditions may well be treacherous across the region by daybreak Monday with snow and ice on the ground and temperatures in the 20s throughout.

Last names CMC 00 Run. The table is still open and new dishes getting prepared every few hours

Sure did.

I hope her daughter surgery went well!

No doubt! Ive went to sleep ready for glory to wake up with $hit on my boots

I could name some others but that is a good start!

Dan ‘s thoughts over at foothills action network! Wait and see approach. https://foothillsweather.net/2022/01/12/significant-southeast-winter-storm-expected-sunday-details-to-be-ironed-out/ .

Cutting close down this way for sure. Razor edge

No joke. Been waiting for a long 12+ hour duration event. Maybe this is the one.

Boom is right.

True that.

looks all frozen down this way with a big thump of all snow before the take over.

hour 94 on the CMC look great

Wow. Is that time stamp 1 min apart or am I crazy.

Brutal! Would love a good snow pack that morning

I tend to agree with you. Just need to work out the SLP placement.

More mixing down here for sure on the this run of the GFS for sure. That is a tight line in Rutherford County.

That would be me. lol

Agree but would love to see it move little more east as shown at the end of the NAM run.

I’ve been around these weather board since 2000 and I’ve learned until it’s upon us and I can see it out the window nothing is guaranteed. That’s the thrill of it especially down here[emoji41] .

We are always walking the line in the foothills. No matter how good or bad any system is. Let’s roll!! .

For now good down here! .

Who ever is to the immediate west of this sleet is going to be piled on with snow. Wherever it sets up.

Everything. LOL

Been a few since we had a system exit with cold behind it to lock everything in.