Damage In Tolland

I think you're along the right track ..I still think though that we are going to see a rather expansive area..perhaps much wider than you'd expect of some big 20-24+ totals that could encompass much of SNE .. Instead of one of those 30 mile wide bands..But we'll see how it all plays out

40-50 inch amounts in a few places there seems likely

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0043 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015 Areas affected, ern long island / cape cod and portions of ern ma / ri / sern ct concerning, heavy snow valid 262333Z - 270430Z summary, heavy snowfall rates 1+ inches/hour will probably begin between 01-03 UTC along the immediate coast of srn new england and ern long island. discussion, 23Z surface analysis shows an estimated 994-mb low 200 mi SE acy and surface temps below freezing along the srn new england coast. water vapor imagery shows a negative-tilt mid-level trough located over the carolinas and wrn atlantic early this evening. very strong h5 height falls /180 m per 12 hr/ will likely occur downstream during the next 12 hours to the SE of long island

I think Will said earlier that in Nemo the RPM had the same thing the day of the event and had Ct almost no snow..only to have the megaband end up there.

How much north and south of it?

I laid awake from 1-3 last night thinking about the storm..then got up at 4:10 and was out running by 4:45..I am tired. Gonna try and hit the sack around 8:00 and maybe get up 2:00

Look at that def. band coming onto the Cape stretching to the SW of LI>.that's the beast right there for central areas

Yeah I agree.. I've been on that train all afternoon. I don't think this is one of those 30 mile wide bands..There may just be 100's of miles of 24+

Also as Ryan noted the ENS mean was somewhat east of the op

The Euro kind of just has one massive megaband..outside of Se MA. That's why those big 24+ totals are spread all over Ct and MA

The band on LI into NYC is OES/convergence zone..It really wasn't part of the storm

Compromise is perfect for all of SNE

Poor Nammy

18z RGEM time shortly

18-30

Well it was nice to see you raise totals statewide after it came out. That actually reassured me!

Jay you've made your point clear..you think this area of Ct is going to get dry slotted while areas east and west don't. You're entitled to your thoughts. If the NAM had any support ok..but when the serf's jumped east..that should probably tell us something. But again..we don't know..and probably ..it's time to put down the models anyway and just watch what unfolds

What if the Nam had shifted east? Would you still think it's possible? That's my point. It's always been possible for all areas except SE Mass noone has a clue where it will set up.

I'm not worried one bit by that garbage.LOL..every other piece of useable guidance shifted east and it goes even farther west. There's going to be some disappointed folks to the west of SNE if they are hanging hats on NAM

I don't see that really. Euro pretty much crushes e Ma and all of Ct with w ct getting a little more . It's east of nyc

When the srefs are east and the Nam is now truly by itself.. Well that sums it up

Snowy

The stuff you read about from days of yore. Scooter safe and sound at home tomorrow Governor Dan Malloy ‏@GovMalloyOffice 20m 20 minutes ago ICYMI: Gov. Malloy signed a State of Emergency declaration earlier this morning in preparation for the coming storm http://www.governor.ct.gov/malloy/cwp/view.asp?Q=559968&A=4010 …

The deformation band is going to be wider and bigger than anyone expected i think

At this point you actually have to start talking about 40-50 inches in interior SE Mass..Every single model drops like 3 inches + of qpf down there. Even at 10:1..that's still 36+