Damage In Tolland

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think Ginxy has been pretty dead nuts on this year.

Never said different 

Just now, wxeyeNH said:

In general how much ice before power issues.  Back in my head I'm thinking around .25"?

.50

Just now, CoastalWx said:

For Kevin and CT, the airmass is coming in from the NE. It’s not entrenched. So, it’s possible this isn’t a big deal for a large part of the state. I don’t have enough knowledge to say if Kevin is 31 or 33, but there’s a real possibility only a very small portion of the state sees something siggy for ZR. I do think he’ll be below freezing though for a good chunk. 

Thank you . 

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

NBC 30 pretty much saying not a big deal

They have a first alert issued for significant ice in hills . Nothing has changed. Valleys are above freezing hills below. Some of these guys are just silly . Scooter knows what he’s talking about 

For those posters in the hills of CT where it matters, listen to Ginx at your own risk . Me personally, I listen to the Mets . He’s very knowledgeable so to each their own 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He’s lost his marbles. Trying so hard for CT not to ice lol

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe just a tad aloft. I didn’t see anything  notable near surface. More juice it seems too on this run. You’re going to have wobbles from here on out,  but certainly a chance of tugs to the warmer side aloft by just a bit. 

Euro and HREF walking hand in hand with grid issues icestorm . Weebles wobble as poles come down?

Jan not looking so good for winter fans. Hopefully a well timed wave can still deliver, but we worry

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

That was actually his first-call (I thought it was his first-guess, though I'm not sure what that difference is)>

 

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

We eagerly await your first-call map.

The final call map was issued last night , so what’s done is done 

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

You need to stop with your angry stuff. You are embarrassing yourself in a public arena. 

You’ve been doing it ever since you joined the social media community. We’ll see what afternoon runs do

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

He is so wish casting this morning all over social media.  Looks like he will be dumbfounded once again

I’m making a forecast on what I think will happen. I do not see sleet being an issue SW of ORH. There could be some , but for CT this is big zr to me. Even for you . Your angry responses on twitter are funny 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Kevin will get ice, but I wonder if sleet takes away some of his damaging ice QPF? 

Are you solely basing that on the NAM though? I think that was too cold. We know how these WAA aloft deals work 

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You may even get sleet. Wondering if ice impact is SW of you 

You can’t rule out pings to start , but that 850 layer is furnaced. I think NAM will go back warmer aloft. To me, this is sig ice Sw of ORH and inches of sleet north and east 

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

They should go with a watch " a little " farther south and east of present, with the perfunctory AFD statement/turn of phrase included that southern and eastern zones will likely be converted to Advisories, but we'll hold off Advisories for now, as a good bit of this event will be taking place in the 4th period...  or words to that affect. 

So, no - not what you're glorifying

With over 1/2 “ of ice. Yes , they’ll convert to ice storm warnings 

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This was an ice storm look since D8   lol... but yeah.  I'm looking at ALB's NAM grid and the model's capping a +5C 800 mb layer over an isothermal 0C temperature curve ... over eastern NY ?!  zomb... Meanwhile, the Euro ...being inside D4 mind us, is showing rising fresh, new, polar high pressure atmospheric cold mass into D.E.M. ...

Btw, given the synoptic indicators ... NWS will need to expand that watch all the way to I-95 over eastern zones...probably down into N RI at some point.  It is unclear why they have not included those areas anyway, other than - I guess - trying to out-think the models, but I suspect more likely there is a dearth of local studies/climatology unique to this region, scaffolding their forecast philosophy. When there are big, fresh, new polar highs arriving/wedging from eastern Ontario, such as that that's being indicated by the most trustworthy guidance at this particular time range... mmm, I read their discussion to be fair, and frankly it does not translate like they are self-reliant in the 'existential' concepts, and more so like they sought consensus with surrounding offices - which I'm sure is protocol and is fine. But it's interesting that with a bigger of pool of brains in that discussion, one of those mind-pans didn't instruct a hand-waving and hone the concept of ageostrophy/"barrier jets" and that there is less likely an E turning of the wind at the surface Sunday night. 

I could be wrong, ...and it's probably a tedious critique ...considering no one outside this social media will ever be made aware this missive was composed...and, we don't matter, and, no one gives a shit anyway...  But for the virtue of wasting my time, I felt it worth to mention 

You’ll likely see them convert to ice storm warnings south and west ORH

Just now, dryslot said:

I wouldn't sleep on the berks down into western CT getting some decent ice as well as where you outlined.

Oh yeah those fine folks too. Large areas of significant ice . Eversource gonna have a wild New Year

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Somebody is going to see a lot of zr and some others ip.

Still think the major zr is southwest of ORH to NW RI, CT with inches of sleet northeast of there 

5 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Kevin isn’t going to like that map...he thinks he’s getting an ice storm. 

. It will need to be adjusted 

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
341 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2019

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>004-008>012-281700-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0007.191230T0000Z-191231T1800Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon,
Putnam, Willimantic, Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre,
Fitchburg, Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst, Northampton,
Springfield, Milford, and Worcester
341 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of a coating to two inches and ice accumulations
  of around one half of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut and central and
  western Massachusetts.

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the morning or evening commute.

16 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Really not impresssed with FRZR potential  or Snow in eastern Areas of New England.  Maybe a sliver of extreme NE mass and SE NH can cash in more snow but it looks like a sleet fest with primary FRZR threat in Western SNE N of CT

Glad you don’t forecast .

How was 18z midlevel ?Simmy to 12z?

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not intending this as a testament to the NAM's correctness in handling matters but ...that's pretty impressive how it parks that H NNE of Maine and for 24 to 30 hours, then moves it 0 while waves of QPF hose hammer at it from the OV right over over us.  

If you want to run an ice storm ...that's really how you get it done. Suppose for a second it's closer to reality - some may even see more sleet and snow...they may. But, where that goes ZR you could be talking light to moderate steady falls at 29 to 31 F, with a constant feed of lower DP air on an endless supply of ageo jet to make sure you don't survive - Jesusyikes...  I'm hoping here along Rt poopie that if this cold high scenario ( ala Euro even ) is right, we are deep enough in it to bee-bee accumulate 2.5" rather than accreting 1" of power sag

We want a massive boob sag

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

GFS tries to go back warm...

No posts -

God I love the sweep it under the rug culture.

Beers?

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Especially northeast CT and RI...proximity to source region is important. Northeast is coldest..

Yeah NW CT is lesser impact in this scenario 

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think you may be near southern edge of big ice....we may see things tic north, but the low level cold push is also probably being undermodeled. These factors may negate one another?

Any elevation in RI and CT will likely be below 32 with that pig HP