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Everything posted by GrandmasterB
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
GrandmasterB replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
That’s a wrap for me unless we get a significant storm to track. Easily a B+ winter in my book. Early season cold in December, sustained cold throughout, lots of tracking, the 12” storm in late Jan, plus some big near misses. I’m glad to have this community to share the ups and downs of winter tracking and looking forward to starting another season in October. I hope everyone enjoys the warm season! -B. Bundy -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
GrandmasterB replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
HRRR still looks fine for Lancaster. I’ve never been a fan of it but I’m assuming it has utility. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
GrandmasterB replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
If my kids have school tomorrow I won’t be able to show my face around the house. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
GrandmasterB replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Looks like a nice band rotating up from MD into the York area. It will be interesting to get some obs when that comes up. I wouldn’t spike any footballs just yet. Could still be some surprises. Coastal not even out of the OBX area yet. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
GrandmasterB replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Someone remind me about what could go wrong today. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
GrandmasterB replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
This is basically MU’s snow map -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
GrandmasterB replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Could certainly end up that way, just have to let the chips fall at this point. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
GrandmasterB replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
During the day tomorrow any light or moderate precip not from the IVT or heavy coastal influence will be difficult to accumulate on roads. We really need to be under the slim IVT, the heavier coastal precip, or precip at night to accumulate. That’s been pretty well modeled and outlined by NWS and others. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
GrandmasterB replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
A hair west and better precip vs. 12Z. All I care about at this point. Same for RGEM. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
GrandmasterB replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
ICON a hair stronger and further west. Low position is very close to the MD coast. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
GrandmasterB replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I just trolled him on X. I’m not proud of it but he rubs it in our face when storms miss. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
GrandmasterB replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I’m waiting for that one classic NAM run right before the event. Could be happy hour. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
GrandmasterB replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Still a ton of lows west. Almost on the shore! -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
GrandmasterB replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
GrandmasterB replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
GrandmasterB replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
What are we defining as a struggle? Again, we aren’t getting the 12+ totals to our east. But 72 hours ago we weren’t getting anything, except maybe a phantom IVT that’s impossible to pin down with any accuracy. I think 3-6” is a huge win. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
GrandmasterB replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Hahaha, the mindset of a true champion! I just got back from a week on the road and have a ton going on. Anyone can start one if they like. Adds to the fun! -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
GrandmasterB replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I agree and I totally understand most folks hand wringing over (potentially) missing out on the 24"+ bullseye, but considering only the GFS had us getting a little coastal precip 48 hours ago to where we are now?? That's a big W already for this storm whatever the outcome. It's been really fun watching all the west ticks to the GFS and as nut and blizz pointed out, we may not be down with the west ticks yet. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
GrandmasterB replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Still quite a bit of west leaning lows. Love it! -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
GrandmasterB replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Also a bunch of EPS members more tucked like the GFS -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
GrandmasterB replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Regular Euro and especially AI well west of their 12Z runs with coastal precip. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
GrandmasterB replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
GrandmasterB replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Haha, goes nuclear just east of OC, MD! OMG this might be happening. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
GrandmasterB replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
ICON is heavier, wester vs. 12Z. Love to see it. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
GrandmasterB replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
The precip shield on the NAM at 51 is quite impressive. Snow back to Pittsburgh and State College. Not really close to the Euro in terms of precip shield west of Philly.
