Jns2183

We set records "25/12Z PIT sounding this morning (0.73" observed on the 25/00Z release; 0.26" is the current daily record low pWAT value that is in jeopardy). * Update * PWAT on this morning`s 12Z KPBZ sounding was an incredible 0.19". Bone dry for late May in this part of the country." Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

If we do this truly CTP style we get stuck at 62, overcast, maybe a spritz. A true memorial weekend screw job to equal this winter. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

"Anomalous +1-2SD MSLP Canadian high pressure will sink south from Ontario into the Great Lakes today. Very dry air will accompany the seasonably strong anticyclone with pWAT values -2 to -3SD below the mean. To put the dry air into more context, there is the potential to set a daily record low pWAT on the 25/12Z PIT sounding this morning (0.73" observed on the 25/00Z release; 0.26" is the current daily record low pWAT value that is in jeopardy)." Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

In our great debate regarding our local climate admist our great drought lots of banter was exchanged regarding changes in our local rainfall. Some thought this drought was the new normal, others that our rainfall was feast or famine, along with various other theories. So I decided, on my day off today, to try to start answering that question. The weather station at kmdt has been in same place since 10/1/1991. So using NOAA climate viewer website I downloaded daily summaries specificaly regarding precipitation from 1/1/1992 through 12/31/2022, a good 31 years. I filtered out all dates below 0.01" qpf, then through a formula assigned each event a bin number, starting with 1 going through 21, associated with 0.25" stepwise increase up to 5", with last bin any events that produced 5"+ a year. Thus I know a table showing how many of each rainfall bin occurred in each year, qpf sum for each bin/each year along with average amounts. I will post tables tomorrow but in summary: - Rainfall events - the ratio of sum of all - we underestimate just how dry 1992-2001 was and just how wet 2002-2022 were. Comparing those time periods we on average have seen 12 more events per year since 2002 then we saw from 1992-2001 - more events leads to more chance for big events. For events >1.00" the average yearly count from 1/1/92 through 12/31/2001 was 8.8. 1/1/02 through 12/31/2011 was 12. 1/1/2012 through 12/31/2022 was 10.7. I need to still look more in depth regarding distributions of the events greater than 1", but due to small numbers I might have to expand data set, but that involves ingesting numbers from previous official locations, like capital city. I also want to look more into month specific breakdowns. My best guess is that the only proven trend regarding precipitation I've seen is it has been raining more days and also more yearly. Probably not as extreme as it seems compared records from the whole official records going back to 1889 due to location changes and equipment sensitivity but still substantial. The raise in average low temperatures provide further proof of the increased moisture. Regardless of how many days it rains, the distribution is remarkably stable regarding what percentage of those events are above or below 1". A combination of increased moisture in atmosphere and rainy period has lead to those greater than 1" days producing more rain, maybe psychologically even more than substantially. This year has been a throwback to the 2001 and prior eras and the difference between this year, last year somewhat vs last 20 year and recentcy bias make a bad combination. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Was it lauxmont farms? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Where was your wedding yesterday afternoon? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

For Harrisburg. How far back would you trust record keeping? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

The last 20 years have been the wettest 20 years on record by wide margin. What you might see is more extreme swings but overall wetter. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

What did MDT record today? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

From 10/26/1908 till 9/15/1909 Harrisburg did not accumulate more than 1" of rain in any day. 325 days Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Don't give up on that soaker late month yet Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Rainfall in those months went from 11.17 to 13.18 Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Mean Max Jun - Aug 1889-1950 82.3 1951-2000 83.7 2001-2022 84.5 Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Mean Min Temp Years: Jun, July, Aug, J - A 1889-1950: 61, 65.6, 63.8, 63.5 1951-2000: 60.9, 65.8, 64.2, 63.6 2001-2022: 63.1, 68.1, 66.8, 66.0 Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Drops Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

We will be lucky for drops tomorrow Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

All our heat records the last decade have to with our low temperatures which probably is a function of moisture Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

All these records I look at 2003 was insane for cold may and June. I just don't remember much from that summer. Anyone have any memories? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Top 5 driest May Year: may_pcpn, june_pcpn, may_mean_max, june_mean_max 1902: 0.29, 4.76, 71.8, 78.6 1903: 0.46, 5.63, 74.3, 72.4 1964: 0.51, 4.20, 77.6, 82.4 1939: 0.54, 2.44, 78.8, 83.3 1957: 0.84, 3.38, 73.6, 83.5 2023: 0.15, xxx, 72.5 72.5 is estimated. We sit now at 69.4 which will fall with high of 68 today Unless we average high temp above 81 for May 21 to 31 we will fall below mean max temp of 74 Avg is 72,4 for May and 81 for June in 127 year history. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

7 of the 10 driest Mays followed up with at least 3.5" of rain in June. What's weird is the combo of dry and bn Temps we have had. That's even more rare. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

If we come down to a just a few days to claim to record I'll be rooting for the dry to win followed by a wet june Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I think MDT might have a chance for under .51" rain for month and top 3 driest May. But that last week in May will probably have some convection around that it will have to dodge to do that. At this point it seems like a given we go into that last week of May with a top 3 dry May on the line. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Better quality southern map Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

The official map Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Grass lovers should be rejoicing at the cool temperatures and all the mornings with dew on the grass. It's keeping stuff alive. In camp hill all is as green as green gets. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk