Jns2183

Storm just popped. Let's see what comes Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Two totally different modes of precipitation. We still are horrible at convection compared to all else. Look at past week or any hurricane forecast Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

With the Atlanta area experiencing what they did yesterday with a 20% chance of storms forecasted and what Houston experienced last week with 10% chance, I'm going to bet we get our best rains when they are not forecasted Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Probably done for day until MCS firing over Indiana gets here. I also think we miss heavy rain tomorrow now Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Severe storms and with them heaviest rainfall will miss us to east tomorrow Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

It's a swamp ass day Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Last time I was there it was 101, but with super dry air and breeze I was cold whenever I got out of pool. Crazy different experience than here. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

With how these have been going I feel Monday will either drop 0.25" or 2"+ in places and eventually we all have to hit one of these jackpots. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I've had about 1.25" since Wednesday. Before that I had 1.58" for whole month and 0.44" for May. So I am still thrilled Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Not missing much. 3 rounds and barely got 0.20" Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

5-10 minutes are storm passes it's back up to 80 and like a steam bath. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Radar confirms Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I'm northeast of Carlisle currently. Watching this storm erupt and build via clouds is fascinating with now. Definitely have clouds at different heights moving in different directions Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Today with the high dews and weak stearing will definitely produce some slow moving gully washers. Getting under one those is weather equivalent of a sales guy I know who got a random cold call from a company CEO one Friday morning to buy enough of the small company he worked for product where he quadrupled his prior years salary in commission alone that morning. He later finds out the CEO secretary picked his number from the company website soley because he looked like "this nice church boy who cut her grass when her husband passed away". Sure, he did absolutely nothing to get that sale, but that wasn't stopping him and his boss from drinking 20 year old scotch by 10am that morning. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I believe Rex blocks have a long detailed and studied history of causing fits for models. Throw in that we've had for the last few years patterns that seem to get "stuck" for much longer time periods than climo says, upper lows being notoriously fickle, and driving convection as main precipitation mode and you get models that in long term default more and more on climo when pattern is unknown, thus leading to this situation. They did nail the cloudy "rainy weather for days part". I think them drawing a big circle over the northeast and Mid-Atlantic with a caption saying "cloudy, dreary, wet, rainfall between .50" and 6" next 3 days, we will let you know which camp you are in as convection fires each day" wouldn't go over to well. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

True, the thing is earlier in the week most models were showing a strong upper low in southwestern pa at this time pumping our area with 4 standard Deviation for this time of year easterly low level jet. That idea fell apart hard 24-36 hours ago on globals but mesos were still unsure and a mess. Frankly models the past month with this very unique pattern have been a bit of a hot mess nationwide but in a manner such that they nail stuff perfectly for awhile then majorly shit the bed for a bit. You saw some issues with the severe/flooding threat in gulf coast, and you saw all short term models completely whiff on storms even effecting Houston last night let alone 90mph winds, while still nailing the severe storms further west. Don't really know what you can even do. It's like nailing 90% of the nationwide forecast while whiffing bad on 10%, just that the area you whiff on is randomly generated each day Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Marysville 2", Philadelphia 1.25", king of Prussia 2", Allentown 3", Poconos 4"+ State College 1.5", Clearfield 1", Williamsport 2" Johnstown, Altoona, Pittsburgh 0.50" Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Looks like Palmyra to Campbelltown to MT. Joy are our 180 day drought champions Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Here is NOAA observed precipitation for the last 180, 90, 60, 30, 14, 7 days. Would just like to know if any of these are wrong for anyone's location. Thanks! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

It's super humid, misting, with low visibility and low ceiling. Looked at WPC 7 day rain forecast. Ranges from 1"-1.25" down by Bubbler ramping up to 2" for Mechanicsburg, Harrisburg, York, and Lancaster and ramping up further as you go northeast with Pottsville looking at 3"+ Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

More like a different sub forum Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Our favorite California location Mammoth Lakes Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Our needed precipitation is all up and down route 95. Was thinking something like that would happen just judging by radar and mesoanalysis this morning knowing the upper low was slowly drifting east. Just happy to score 1/2" this morning. I thought some there was a chance for enough breaks in the clouds to get some cape to set up storms, but it's been thick cover all day and even the mountains are convection free Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Why? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Ppp Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk