BretWx
-
Posts
1,451 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by BretWx
-
18Z HRRR trying to get things started around here between 3-4PM tomorrow.
-
This will be a very unusual and highly anomalous event in many ways with near record low 500mb heights, very cold temperatures and rare Snow-to-Liquid Ratios (SLRs) of 15:1 - 20:1. The dendritic growth zone will be very deep with plentiful forcing for efficient snow growth. Thus, it won`t take much QPF to reach warning criteria snow across practically the entire forecast area.
-
20 below Zero wind-chill. Good GOD.
-
-
QPF totals ticked down but we're dealing with some COLD COLD air and also high ratios. And the setup and movement nearly the same. Looking at a roughly 20 hour snowfall with temps in the low 20s during the thick of it. 7PM onset tomorrow through 7PM Saturday.
-
-
EURO holding steady so far. Images to follow!
-
12Z GEFS MEAN went up:
-
Canadian ticked down from the previous run but still solid considering:
-
Another solid GFS run:
-
GSP 9AM Update. More broad. ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 7 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northeast Georgia, Piedmont and western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina. * WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Sunday morning.
-
Considerable jog west with the QPF mean on the 6Z EPS.
-
QPF went up a bit. That's a good sign.
-
-
SREF MEAN jumped a bit to 4.14IN KAVL.
-
12Z HRRR came in bone dry. But it's not time to look at that yet.
-
Also, we're looking at temps in the low 20s, or even lower during the heaviest of the precip per the 6Z EURO. As time progresses and cold advection intensifies and deepens, profiles will become increasingly supportive of snow:liquid ratios of 15-20:1 during the day Saturday.
-
00z EURO:
-
6Z GFS looking good:
-
I'd still take it all day.
-
I would GLADY lock in 4-6in and call it a WIN.
-
Even the ICON inched in our favor w/ this run.
-
Not too much, not too little. But with the ratio's who knows. I would still take the low end and some fluffly white to cover the yard!
-
18Z NAM is a beaut!
-
The yard here is still entirely ice. I'd love to see anything covering the grass. Especially some fine powder. And to watch it fall for a solid amount of time!
