Natester

4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

That would beat GHD2 here with that 16" lol.  From here on out I'm ridin the RAP. 

You'll likely be disappointed and get only half of what the RAP projects.

Also, 0z GEM basically unchanged in snow placement.

3z RAP has insane snow totals from SE Nebraska to Chicagoland.  However, the RAP still wants to ramp the system up.  Possibly toss.

0z GFS snow totals.

0z GFS a tick northward from 18z and juicier.

0z ICON is an easy toss, it's just like the 18z run, very weak and way south.  0z RGEM just a wee bit south from last run.  I'm sure we'll get more than 4 inches of snow.

1 minute ago, ILSNOW said:

Better than the 12z run which only gave Cedar Rapids 3 inches of snow.

2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Feeling pretty good about our location with this.  It's far from a lock, but 6"+ looks pretty likely for the QCA. 

On the bright side you don't have to deal with any mixing issues.

18z GEFS at hour 48.

21z RAP still wants to ramp the system up.  Toss.

1 minute ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Secondary wave playing catch up.  Maybe similar to what EURO was showing earlier

Which run? 0z or 12z?

18z GFS looking juicy and slightly north, in line with the NAM.

18z RGEM ticked south just slightly, not as drastic as the ICON.  Still nets Cedar Rapids 5-6 inches of snow.

Fun fact: 18z ICON gives Cedar Rapids ZERO snow.

18z ICON waaay south.  Not good.

2 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

The SE hasn't ended and I suspect this things ends up sheared and weaker as the models ingest the Dakota High.  Don't get your hopes up on the model output.  This thing will become a mid Ohio special before you know.  Don't ignore the trends.  

Very highly doubt that will happen.

I should also mention that the 12z ICON also had this system amped up with a very similar track to the 18z NAM.

2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Think I'm probably going to throw in the towel for a 6" snow for CR. Thinking the max band ends up somwhere near washington, IA through evanston or so.

 

Gonna go with a first call of 4"

Worse if the snow misses CR entirely like it did on 11/25/18.  Doubtful that will happen I wouldn't be surprised if we only got 4-5 inches from this.

Also, the NAM 3k shows a HUGE band of sleet through Kansas and Missouri.  Also, NAM 3k has a really narrow band of siggy ice, with Peoria in it.

4 minutes ago, hlcater said:

NAM coming southeast

Also not as amped up.  Still gives CR decent snows though unless it trends even more southeast.  I predict the 21z RAP to cave and trend weaker and southeast.

Not getting my hopes up on the HRRR.  Still amps the system up like the NAMs.  So unless the NAMS, the RAP and the HRRR cave or the globals catch on to this I'm not getting my hopes up.

Just now, Sciascia said:

Busting high on a prediction, in Price is Right terms, means you overbid. So if Alek gets 4 inches when he predicted 4.5, he busted high. If he gets 5 when he predicted 4.5, then he’ll bust low.

Ah ok.  I thought it was the other way around lol.

Stupid question, but what does busting high mean?

First call here is 5 inches unless other models join the euro in terms of lowering snow totals.

You know what would really be bad is if the euro verified with the subdued snow totals.  Just as bad as the storm missing here entirely.

1 minute ago, Sciascia said:

Next!