Natester

I wouldn't be surprised to see the NAM/RAP/HRRR go south in future runs.  Hopefully still has Cedar Rapids barely above freezing for most of the event.

14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

RGEM came in fairly amped.

Also a touch north.

0z NAM 12k has the main precip missing much of eastern Iowa.  Has a brief period of freezing rain early Thursday morning with temps at 31-32F.  A lot could change from here on out though.

Also, we do have a generator, but with the wind on Thursday and if the power goes out, the house will get potentially dangerously cold.  That's why I'm dreading the worst case scenario.  Hoping for not much ice here.

I'm hoping that the temp is right around 31F to 32F if it doesn't get above freezing on Wednesday since at those marginal temps the ice mostly just runs off.  I've seen it happen multiple times when temps were at 31F to 32F with hardly any ice accretion on trees and power lines.

As much as this winter has been boring (except the Christmas blizzard), tomorrow is looking like the biggest snowfall in Cedar Rapids so far this season.

One thing I'm definitely not looking forward to is the wind making my room very cold.  The prolonged winds are going to send my bedroom room temp to the lower 50s or lower since the A/C is in the window facing northwest.  Space heater will be running tomorrow and Friday when I'm awake.  Anyways, anticipating 4-5 inches of snow here.

0z ICON east of 18z.

Big shift east on the 12z GFS.

KCID already at 94F.  Iowa City at 95F.  Temps overperforming.

Madwx and CheeselandSkies going to get rocked according to the 14z HRRR.

Thundersleet here.  Very little freezing rain.  Temp at 25F.

18z HRRR freezing rain accumulation.

0z RGEM alot drier for the Tuesday part of the system.

54 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Euro ice for Wisconsin 

That is alot more ice than what Weathernerds was showing.  Would be catastrophic for the power grid if that verifies, especially with the 35-40 mph wind gusts Tuesday afternoon.  Good news here is that the euro and the UKMET have Cedar Rapids above freezing when the main show starts.

DVN AFD mentions possible ice storm on Tuesday.

TUESDAY COULD BE MESSY, WITH A SCENARIO OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN   
CHANGING OVER TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE SFC   
LOW, UPPER TROF MIGRATION AND POSSIBLE IN-WRAPPING DRY SLOT, MOST OF   
THE PRECIP WILL BE MOVING OUT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BY TUE EVENING.   
CURRENT PROJECTIONS ARE THAT MOST OF THE DVN CWA MAY GET A RANGE OF   
0.05 TO 0.18 INCH OF ICE, ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SLEET ACCUMS AND UP   
TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. BUT WILL HAVE TO   
WATCH IF THE WETTER AND MORE DEVELOPED/DEEPER SFC LOW MODELS VERIFY   
THAT WOULD PRODUCE HIGH ICE AMOUNTS, AND POSSIBLY QUICKER TOP-DOWN   
DYNAMICAL COOLING FOR HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS TUE AFTERNOON ALONG AND   
NORTHWEST OF A IOWA CITY TO WEST OF DUBUQUE LINE. THE WETTER ECMWF   
EVEN IF IT HOLDS ON RAIN LONGER, MAY PRODUCE OVER A HALF INCH OF   
RAINFALL IN SPOTS ON FROZEN GROUND PRODUCING PONDING AND RUN-OFF.   
THE EURO WOULD ALSO PRODUCE A LOCALIZED SWATH OF HIGHER ICE AMOUNTS   
OF ICE STORM WARNING CRITERIA GENERALLY WEST OF A DUBUQUE TO ANAMOSA   
IA LINE. TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS A CHALLENGE WITH CLOUDS, PRECIP AND   
BOUNDARY MOVEMENT ALL AFFECTING VALUES, RANGES COULD BE FROM THE 20S   
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST.  

12z Euro has a siggy ice storm in a band from NE Iowa through southern Wisconsin and northern Michigan.

Well, if there's one thing, this doesn't look to be a significant ice storm for my neck of the woods.

Just as the HRRR depicted, the showers here have begun.  However, instead of freezing rain, it's all sleet (I just checked outside), which is good because I hate ice.

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

I give you the NCEP trash known as the GFS...

Poor alek gets the shaft.

FV3 southeast of 12z in terms of the band of precip tomorrow.

0z HRRR soundings has freezing rain when the column barely breaches 0C above 850 mb.  Loss of ice?

GFS still north of the NAM.

All that's left to come south is the GFS but chances are that the GFS will be stubborn.

18z NAM 3k says Hoosier gets sleetfest.

NAM 12k and NAM 3k aren't budging.