Natester

27 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Those of us in Iowa are wondering what happened to our big snow event that appeared as locked in as any storm could be a few days out.  Nearly all models are either cutting the precip down, warming us up, or both.  Even the HRRR, which nailed the colder, snowier late December storm, has now warmed us up and drops at least a few hours of mix crap here.  The 6-9" snow event has been cut in half.

12z HRRR still shows CR getting nearly 8 inches although that will possibly change in the 18z run.  Let's see what the 15z RAP says.  The good news is that with temps at 30-31F, there won't be any notable ice accretion during the 2-3 hour period of ZR before changing to sleet.

12z HRRR has CR in 2.5 hours of ZR with temps at 30-31F.  I don't expect much ice accumulation but when the ZR flips to sleet and then to snow, it's going to cake everything.

Two of the WRF models show CR getting some ice before changing to snow, the WRF-NSSL shows CR in the ice for quite a few hours, the only model showing that.

2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Looking like 6-8" of cement for here/QC. 

One thing to look out for is potential tree damage and spotty power outages.  Here temps are forecast to stay a degree below freezing during the height of the snow but the snow will still be wet.

My early call for this storm is 6 inches of cement for CR.

7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

you had the derecho.

might not see a double digit snowstorm for another 10 years there.

The derecho is something I don't ever want to go through again, especially with all the trees decimated and houses damaged beyond repair, not to mention being without power for 9 days.  Very fortunate to not lose our roof or suffer major structural damage.

1 minute ago, hlcater said:

That's not true. GHD I and II both dropped double digits here. 

Oh, right.  Forgot about those two storms dropping double digit snow in CR.

Anyways, DVN being conservative and saying only 4 to 6 inches of snow will fall north of US 30 on Saturday.

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Depends on how you define major.  Been just about 5 years since my last double digit snow and about 3 years since a 6" snow.

Apologies, when I meant major I meant a storm that dropped 6 inches or more.  Our last double digit storm here was back in early December 2009.

Just curious, when was the last time Hoosier got a major snowfall?

The difference from the last two major snowfalls is that this snow will be wet, aka hard to shovel.  This is reminding me of February 1, 2015, except without the several hour period of cold rain.  That storm was the last major cement snowfall for here.

Looks like my original call of 5 inches was the right call.  Much of the snow fell when I was asleep.  Meanwhile, IC got 9 inches of snow.

In b4 reply from mimillman for my pessimism.

Snow is about to resume here as mass of heavy snow is approaching from the SW.  I need to stop being so pessimistic when snowstorms don't pan out here.

Just now, CheeselandSkies said:

IC getting buried while CR gets nada...sound about right @hlcater?

You know, it would only be fitting if this dry air pocket stuck in place for the whole storm and CR doesn't even crack an inch.  I know that won't happen but still.

4 minutes ago, mimillman said:

So this is the final final final final final final final final call right? My goodness are you flappy.

Yes, since the snow will likely be on and off due to dry air.

Lowering my call to 3.5.  My call of 5 inches seems way too high.  This is going to cause many people to become complacent when it comes to snowstorms.

Full saturation has occurred here, went from spitting snowflakes to moderate snow in 8 minutes.

[beginrant] Saturation veeeeeeeery slow here.  Heavy returns overhead and yet only a few flakes are seen.  That will likely change in 30 minutes. [endrant]

Starting to spit snow here.

18z NAM 3k is wetter for east central Iowa while drier for southeast Iowa.  Gives us nearly 7 inches based on the 10:1 ratio.

Just now, mimillman said:

Don't tell Natester. His 2" call may be in jeopardy.

I didn't call that low, I called for max of 5 inches here although it's looking like the snow will start a bit ahead of schedule.

Euro gives us 5.1 inches according to 10:1 ratio.  This is just as all the other models are showing.  I don't expect CR cracking 6 inches but rather 4-5 inches.

0z HRRR slightly south and slightly wetter.  Shows 5 inches for CR via 10:1 method.

I'm predicting that the 0z HRRR will be even drier than the 18z HRRR with CR only getting 3 inches.  Have to wait and see.

3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I recorded 11.5".

Oh, I see.  Just a half inch from a foot.  That was the last huge snowstorm that Cedar Rapids had that exceeded 10 inches.  That was back during the golden days of Easternuswx.

18 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I was born in 1974 and I've never measured 12" of snow, so the stat is legit.

What about February 5-6, 2008?  I swear we got a foot from that.