LP08

I know the weeklies suck but I just browsed through them.  Not good.  Maybe some signs of some -epo help after week three but absolutely no help in the artic.  If this is the look in mid February....yikes.

The door is cracked for Jan 8th on the EPS, granted it will require quite a bit of luck to time the PNA ridge to get a favorable outcome.

13 minutes ago, frd said:

That depiction is right along the time lines of @40/70 Benchmark, and @psuhoffman. The issues with the Pacific ridge and its location goes back to last winter. 

Nothing new to add. I don't care what others might say that there are differences elsewhere,  that set-up is a HUGE issue and brings the SE and WAR to play. 

Combine that with a very +AO and a deeply -PNA and it is very frustrating. 

Maybe things progress later in the month, but I believe any change to better will be gradual and no one should except a sudden flip.  

Definitely not transient as it locks in basically right after our brief window next week.  I am still optimistic that we can salvage some kind of winter stretch once we break the massive +ao/nao combo.  Hopefully some signs start showing up in the next week or so.

Definitely not much to sugar coat in the long range.  After about a 4 day window of below normal temps next week, about as dismal a pattern showing up on both the EPS and GEFS (I know I am not saying much different than most have been).  Let's hope something works out next week.  

EPS has a smattering of hits but the mean is mostly skewed by a couple bigger storms.

19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

6z GEFS is in for a little something around day 10. Seems to favor southern parts of the region looking at the snow map. 

EPS has an ok signal for the same general time frame.  

8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

As I mentioned I am embarking on the process of trying to seriously lead to read the charts.  I was looking at the 12z EPS at 240 and could not see a TPV at all.  Am I missing it?  Got a new tablet and I haven't yet figured how to copy and paste images or I would share it.I

By the way what site do you use for model output?

TPV is parked over Greenland.

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps doesn't look bad between day 9 - 12 . Opportunities for frozen  look possible to me . 

Definitely a gradient look with anything that is overly organized will cut.  Maybe we could sneak a wave under the region before the SE ridge returns.

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

D9-10 deal on the euro was pretty close to working out.  The atlantic is asserting itself nicely and it's within the realm for it to become a legit threat (of some sort). 0z EPS had a cluster of maybe 12 solutions that had at least a trace of snow. Will be interesting to see if 12z EPS ups the ante. It's probably waaay too fast to expect things to get right before Jan but it is something (the only thing) worth watching over the next 10 days. 

 

If the day 8-10 deal doesn't work out, looks like day 12 or day 15 has a chance undercutting that ridge out west 

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

None taken. I know there are Steelers fans everywhere (I have quite a few of them from college). I hate the Steelers, but I have respect for the organization and the rivalry. New England otoh......I won't go there 

Reddit is a beautiful site for football streams. Baseball is very hit or miss unfortunately. Thankfully, my Orioles are so bad right now with the rebuild, I'll gladly just catch the highlights, but I follow them extensively from the team website and twitter. Will always be a fan, but man oh man, it can be so rough. As for the internet, I pay $64 (with the fees included) for 400mbs service, so I'm fairly happy. Next time I move to an area with Google Fiber capabilities, I'm going with them and never looking back. 1000/1000 speeds just cannot be beat man. Gaming needs a decent connection with FPS game types. Without it, it's very hard to enjoy. 

I am a weird fan.  I am Caps, Nats, then Steelers.  Grew up with Pittsburgh neighbors and always watched games there.  I have had some success with the Nats on reddit but also like to just listen to the radio feed while doing other things.  You get better prices out there in Midland! 

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Oyyy. As a gamer, I could never do this as long as I live. I'm running 400mbs right now in Midland. I almost want to get Giggabit speed for $30/mo more, but that's not a very wise decision with the current CoL out here. Next year? Maybe. We'll see. I watch Ravens games through Buffstreams that I found off Reddit. I'm on a 30 sec lag between real time, but the picture and stream is crisp. 

Yup!  Reddit is where I go as well (usually just the redzone feed unless the Steelers are on (ducks!)). I am not a gamer so that never crossed my mind.  I pay 45 for internet.  I'll never go back.

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

My biz partner is a master at gaming any system. He's been prodding me to cut cable for a year. You game the internet system by buying your own xfinity and verizon compatible equipment then switch back and forth every 12-24 months. I had Fios for 17 years and Verizon had zero interest in giving me any kind of deal to stay so I switched to Xfinity with 600mbs speed for $70/mo for 24 months. Sometime between month 12-24 I'll switch back to Fios under a new customer promotion and keep doing it indefinitely. 

Live TV streaming competition will keep getting more fierce so prices should hold or decrease. Internet costs are already on the decline (generally speaking).

We made the switch to YouTube TV early this year after out Xfinity bill was pushing almost 200 bucks without any perks.  Best decision we have made.  We bumped our internet down to 25mbs and have had zero issues with streaming three different tvs at once as well as general internet surfing.  I have found away to watch the NATs through some not so "legal" ways but hopefully they will leave and head to NBC Sports Washington soon.  We cut our bill in half.

4 minutes ago, Negnao said:

Alabama or missing that winter? 

Both

Ahhh yes.  The 10 year anniversary of the only winter I didn't live in the Mid Atlantic.  I'll never forget lurking on Eastern from Alabama and crying myself to sleep.

15 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Pleasantly surprised, but I don't trust them. They'll probably close for a day when it's 12F with a little wind in the morning.

I thought they were very reasonable last year.  My wife is an administrator in the county and it definitely is not the Fairfax of old when it comes to delays and closings.

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

If this thread stays legit I have the option of being at home in Arlington or staying down in Charlottesville. Bet you I choose wrong.

Stay in Charlottesville...they are due!

BWI: 22.8
DCA: 17.6
IAD: 26.4
RIC:12.7

Tiebreaker (SBY): 9.7"

BWI:  10/28

DCA: 11/15

IAD:  10/20

RIC:  11/22

Tiebreaker: 7.3"

13 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Failed on storms again though.

Knights of Columbus?  We are members there!

Tightening up a bit on the cell west of Columbia MD.  

Scary situation just to the north side of Scranton.  Lots of my wife’s family is there and a couplet moved just north of them.  Whew.

11 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Anyone have Euro snowmaps for us?

10” on the nose from three places on the deck.  I didn’t wipe so maybe some compaction but double digits!!

9.5 to 10”....obligatory deck pick in the dark since we lost power.  Pre and post ULL action.

Radar really starting to light up.  Should be a fun and snowy afternoon!

1 minute ago, Negnao said:

Where are you exactly? Dca reporting unknown precip type at the 2pm observation. 

N Arlington