Uncle Nasty

Overnight ensemble runs are cold for the aforementioned timeframe.  The GFS (pasts two runs) is picking up on a stormy time frame around the 20th.  As many of noted, the best winter storms are often picked out at range.  It could go poof, but worth watching.

I'm happy for everyone. It was amazing the difference of a few miles in the Chattanooga area. I'm in Ooltewah where we might have received 1/4" of snow. 6 miles to our north started the accumulating snowfall. 2" and then higher totals of 6-10. All the snow was north and east of us 6 miles. Maybe 8 miles away in Harrison near the lake 4" was widespread. We received the warm nose shaft here. Oh so close.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

Off topic a little, but we are thinking about having lunch at Turkey Creek. Watching all the local Knoxville Tv stations today, it looks like the interstate is fine driving north on 75. I'm just curious if anyone here has any local knowledge if anything is open. I've already called Smoky Mountain Brewery and Connors. I can't get anyone on the phone, which tells me they are probably closed and haven't updated their message. I am really wanting a T Rex pizza.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

I know ya'll will think I've lost my mind for saying this , but on my couch in my peripheral vision , I thought I saw a flash of light out of the south/southeast facing window in my house. I wrote it off as a light from Miller Industries up the ridge behind me. I kept looking, and 1 or 2 minutes later, I saw it again. I saw it 1 more time after that a minute later. It was a purplish/greenish color. I don't think there's any way it could be lightning, but I have no clue what else it could be. We are currently sitting at 28° and freezing rain. On the other side of Miller is interstate 75, so I have no clue what it could have been other than a few lightning strikes. I walked outside on the patio and filmed for a few minutes, and of course, nothing else happened. I will say the ground is now a sheet of ice, and the trees are glistening.

Is it possible there was enough energy in the area to have a few strikes of lightning, or am I losing my mind?

On a side note, I considered a blown transformer, but it was too high in the sky to be that.

Thoughts?

Edit to add: I added a screenshot of the radar at the time I saw it. It "looks" like there might be something down in Georgia in the yellow area that "could" be the culprit. My weather station is showing zero lightning strikes .

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

My buddy jn Chattanoga is a home inspector. His roofer friend posted this today. Looks like he might be a little cold in the video.



https://www.facebook.com/share/p/xRziFt1EQACa1skZ/?mibextid=xfxF2i





Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

A buddy of mine just got rear ended hard on Chapman Hwy.  That is not a euphemism.  Y'all be careful out there.

I’m so glad you are getting in on this, even if it’s 2-4”. My buddy in Cleveland has been asking me all week what’s going to happen. I told him he’s on a line where 2 or 3 miles might be the difference in all or nothing.


.

Congrats on everyone getting a good one! North Hamilton County is doing very well. Southern Hamilton, not so much. We just can't keep a steady snow. The start/stop of the snow is making very hard





Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

I think the transition is in between you and me. I had nice flakes 20 minutes ago, now mostly sleet again. Shame too. The radar actually looks amazing. 

It's been puking in Ooltewah for a little while now. It looks like the rain snow line is a hair to our south. Is it possible for us to stay all snow in the transition zone and overperform?
I know it's a computer generated forecast, but TWC took us from 1-3" to 5-8" right after the moderate snow started.

I'll take half that amount and call it a day down here!

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

North Hamilton County has reports of moderate snow. Snow started in full force here (Ooltewah) at 9:30am. Big flakes and looked great for 5 minutes. It stopped 5 minutes later. 🫤

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

This is the stuff that you can't make up.

Nothing reaching the ground at our house. Temp is a steady 31° with a Virga storm overhead. The best part is that it is snow everywhere overhead except Chattanooga. A blob of pink.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

HSV had reports of frozen precip last night; I am just very slightly west and there is nada-no frozen precip or snow. NWS Huntsville expects an uptick however: 

By daybreak, expect things to get more active as vorticity advectionaids in the persistence of lift along a convergence zone spanningfrom southeastern Arkansas to the Smokey Mountains.

Overall, little has changed regarding amounts. Still expect 2-5"snow accumulations over north and western portions of the forecastarea, with lesser amounts and perhaps more in the way of sleet orice (up to 0.15") south and east of the TN River.

Great to see TN is doing so well. How is Chattanooga doing? Has any precip moved in?

Temp down to 34 and all snow. It's light snow, but it's trying to pick up in intensity. Patio is wet, and our neighbor's recycle can lid has turned white. You know it's been a while for snow when you're looking at a trash can lid for snow cover.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

I can confirm 36° with light sleet and a few flurries. I live in Ooltewah just outside Chattanooga on 75N 15 miles from Cleveland.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

It snowing pretty decent around Memphis it seems,Alabama line,anyone that way?

Last visit and post for the night. [mention=2235]Chattownsnow[/mention] and [mention=4350]Uncle Nasty[/mention] I think the chart above from [mention=9999]TellicoWx[/mention] eases the Chattanooga anxiety a little bit. We should be able to avoid a Dallas Cowboys style melt-down.

I'll feel better when I see snow falling. Warm air is hanging tough in KCHA but we're always the last to cool off. Already snowing in Knoxville. LOL Chatty. Back to the game! 

This tracks. I think your PWS is pretty accurate. I'm reading a temp of 40.8 (it is dropping pretty steadily now) and a DP of 31.4. The temp drop is encouraging, but the DP has basically been steady all afternoon. I'd like to see it drop down a bit. Surface wetbulb is way above freezing right now, but that doesn't mean we can't cool further.

Light snow currently falling on the Waldens ridge, no issues sticking to surfaces. Temps and dewpoints are currently stable at 30.6 and 20, respectively

KCHA Dew is 28. It should fall as the reinforcing front settles in over the Plateau. CAA is fighting downslope right now too, see the dry bulb 44. Both should improve at dark and as the cold air settles in over the Plateau.

That said, this is Chattanooga. We have suffered many instances when what looked like a good wet bulb setup failed. We'll find out a lot this evening when precip starts falling enough to impact the low-level profiles. 

Rather than going neurotic in Chatty, I'm gonna watch this football game for a while. At least until half-time. Unless I check at the next commercial, lol!

What did Paul say? Is it gonna piss me off or make me happy?

I don't mean to sound like a Debbie downer, but I've seen this set-up over the years bring major disappointment to snowlovers in Chattanooga. I'm cautiously optimistic we are on the cold side of the precip, but I can't help but be concerned about the lurking warm air nearby. What I'm seeing is Chattanooga (the southern area bordering Georgia) will be in the 34°-36° temperature range tomorrow for a good portion of the day. Atlanta might even reach 50°. We aren't that far from Atlanta. I would really hate to see the Arctic cold air stall just to our north and west and keep us mainly in a mixed bag of precip until the changeover.

All the pros on here, please correct me if I'm wrong, but I really do see that as a HUGE concern for Chattanooga.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

According to how far north you live, looks like you're probably good for 1 to 4+ inches. But the story isn't written yet, I don't believe. There's gonna be someone close to an edge north and south that sees snow a few miles away but doesn't get much. 
 

There's too many damn models to choose from. I was on another forum earlier, and people were arguing about which model was the best. The model that showed the most snow for their area was the best.

With that said, models are just tools used for guidance. We'll either get very little or get a great southern snow. Models are just an educated guess. Let's see what old Mama Nature has in store for us regarding a blanket of white on the ground for everyone.

I appreciate all the PBP and write-ups from all you knowledgeable folks!

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

I'm resigned to the fact that Chattanooga is mostly cursed in these setups. I honestly can't remember a good statewide Tennessee snow where Chattanooga managed more than an inch or so. It's tough watching areas within 30-50 miles of our area getting plastered, and we are hoping to manage a cartop dusting up to 1". It also happens here often when Georgia gets a good 3-6" snow, and we are just too far north by 30 miles or so and get nothing. That's just the way it is around here.

Even the system rolling in on Monday looks to have most of our qpf used up as a cold rain before switching over, if it does at all.

I'm still pulling for everyone else to get a good thumping and some miracle 50 mile jog south of colder air and decent qpf for our area. We need a surprise.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

I realize TWC app updates local forecasts with almost every model run. I found it interesting that overnight, they took Chattanooga from flurries to actual accumulating snow.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk