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OrangeCTWX

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Everything posted by OrangeCTWX

  1. OrangeCTWX
    Hot daymn cmon IBM let this be your shining moment.
  2. OrangeCTWX
    Likewise, the plumes are always just fun to look at though . For example the mean in Scranton is 22 inches including one model that gives them 15 inches in three hours! Best here is 8 inches in 3 hours, which would still be incredible lol
  3. OrangeCTWX
    For what it’s worth the HRRR seems pretty cold, holding off most of the sleet for NYC until 07z
  4. OrangeCTWX
    Nam looks noticeably warmer with 850s at the onset of the storm. Hopefully just a fluke.
  5. OrangeCTWX
    That track looks good to me. Similar to the NAM.
  6. OrangeCTWX
    It practically touches Long Beach island as well. Most NW model I have seen. Also has a wild coastal front.
  7. OrangeCTWX
    CMC not surprisingly looks similar to the RGEM, they are the most NW of any the models at the moment.
  8. OrangeCTWX
    Not Mt Tolland approved.
  9. OrangeCTWX
    It’s in the same spot, and same strength really. It’s drops over a foot in western ct. Cant say I see any issues.
  10. OrangeCTWX
    I’m sure it’s a terrible model but the 0z WRF-NMM is what this board should be rooting for.
  11. OrangeCTWX
    In what regard?
  12. OrangeCTWX
    3k is better too, which has been the warmest model to date. A few hours of sleet but it then crashes at hr 33
  13. OrangeCTWX
    Wow much better for coastal ct and Hudson valley. Maybe an hour of sleet at the most and no dry slot.
  14. OrangeCTWX
    This does indeed look better so far.
  15. OrangeCTWX
    They actually went up compared to 18z
  16. OrangeCTWX
    A bad weather model.
  17. OrangeCTWX
    When does the 18z euro come out?
  18. OrangeCTWX
    Quite the dry slot on the HERPES. Sheesh
  19. OrangeCTWX
    1 mb stronger and a hair East. Looks pretty identical to 12z.
  20. OrangeCTWX
    Practically identical at the surface at Hr 36 to 12z. Next panel is the most important one though.
  21. OrangeCTWX
    Cave to what? There still doesn’t seem to be uniform agreement across the board.
  22. OrangeCTWX
    NAM looks a little less amped up to me.. will see how it translates but it would be great if it moved more towards euro type solution.
  23. OrangeCTWX
    Difference appears to be a warm tongue at 700mb on the 3k vs the GFS. We don’t even sniff sleet here on the GFS despite it having a similar low position as the NAM. My guess is unfortunately that the 3k would be better at picking up stuff like this, but perhaps it is overaggressive with it..
  24. OrangeCTWX
    3k is a few hours of snow and then sleet then a dry spot despite having a further south surface track than 6z. This hobby sucks.
  25. OrangeCTWX
    Pretty much every model now has a dry slot in CT after a initial thump. Makes sense honestly, just hope to keep the sleet down into LI. Edit: though based on the map above who cares if we dry slot that initial thump would be awesome.
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