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Everything posted by danstorm

  1. I'm not saying they'll be wrong, I've just never seen a forecast of 12-18 when 60-72 hours out... Usually they say "significant", "6+", etc...
  2. Crazy for the NWS to put out such high numbers this far in advance
  3. You'll get 4 if you have 2 now. Band to the west is real
  4. Picking up here - but writing is kind of on the wall for the lower end. Initial lift slid north and some subsidence too from band to South. Oh well. Next few hours should be fun.
  5. chill, HRRR's got you covered - it's a bit delayed but should be snowing most places by 7 am
  6. Nice, glad we're analyzing light snow chances at D16
  7. Hate to say it because you post great stuff, but the numbers you've post do not corroborate your argument. In fact, the average snowfall in the 7 year period above is just about 4.0" ... snowfall isn't a continuous thing like temperature - it comes in discrete bursts that aren't normally distributed. Of course there will be dramatic year to year variations, especially when examining over a short time interval (like a month).
  8. I'm a fake met bro and mainly a troll - what makes me think the GFS may be right is the fact that there is near universal agreement on the AO tanking in the near term and a strong agreement of the PNA heading toward neutral.
  9. I can speak firsthand that it's a miserable place for snow. Quintessential nickle and dime. There is literally snow in the air for weeks at a time (the dying lakes squalls that get squeezed out over the big ridge to the west) that never accumulates.
  10. I think I'd tread lightly on using the word "great" given seasonality and the advancement toward Spring ... but anyone who thinks that winter is over because of this ridiculous warmth is likely in for a rude surprise in terms of cold and possibly snow.
  11. it's been horrible on the western edge of developing storms
  12. Good lord DE ME - def some 3'+ totals in there when this is wrapped up
  13. What about in Jan 2015 when OKX went 24-30 for all of NNJ, I went 8-16, and they got 2-4... is that squeaking into the playoffs and getting blown out in the divisional round?
  14. Man, that band in Eastern ME has to be producing 3+ per ... too bad no one is there to report.
  15. We had quite the ice storm - it's always fun experiencing one's local climatology... Our event was entirely sleet and freezing rain and the surfaces are a total mess with an inch of glaze. On the drive down rt 3 to work this am just a few miles to the east there was little icing... Just goes to show how the cold got trapped against the hills to my west.
  16. A tamer version of NYC's Jan 2015 debacle. This has become a bit of a pattern with the Euro and rapid cyclogenesis