430a update…. Still pinging. Just from looking out window we never flipped. What a bust by HRRR. Fire tgat thing into sun. Need always remember that the warm layer always wins.
I'm so out on things I had no idea it was supposed to do anything tonight until my wife asked. First thing I look at is 12z HRRR from this morning and ummm.... winter storm warning incoming?
How I know I am checked out… first thing I loop in the morning is 850mb temperatures. Like what I see starting end of next week and really around the 10th as Tip mentions above.
We’re pretty consistent in getting 1/3 of the forecast.
Monday: forecast 15”. Actual 6”
Wednesday: forecast 3”. Actual 1”.
At least cleanup will be easy.