MD Snow

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Ukie is close, a miss for Day 5

It was the furthest south with accumulating snow for today’s storm at d 5 though...

I count 5 chances of seeing flakes between next Thursday, Jan 24 and Thursday, Jan 31 on 18z gfs op. Not all will be legit but there are multiple opportunities. Not a shutout cold pattern by any means. Interested to see what gefs shows. 

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

I'm not sure "crazy" is in the offing, but if one looks at the GFS, you see what I suggested above, frequent visits from Alberta.  I know we usually dont do well with them, but trough digs enough and maybe we get an Alberta/Alabama slammer to come up from the SE.

The set up looks ripe for a Miller B to form somewhere along the east coast. It’s not out of the ordinary to get some “crazy” snow totals from Miller B’s along the east coast.

You’ve got a southern stream vort that spawns a storm in the Caribbean and you’ve got multiple NS vorts diving in that form something closer to the coast. Just my observation but if you time those up better you could have a “big” one along the east coast next weekend. 

Lot of moving pieces next sat/sun/mon. If any of them time up, someone on the east coast could get a big one. Gonna go out on a limb and say that eps/gefs start spitting out some crazy solutions in the next couple days...

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

All the ops have it in one form or the other. JMA, GGEM, GFS, FV3 and Euro. Haven’t checked the dumb thunder but it’s the tv met weenie model so I’m sure it’s got it too. 

I think he was referring to the storm chance next weekend which doesn’t look very good on the EPS. 

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

The crazy thing is it fits the longwave pattern. Ops and ens pretty much agree on a relatively narrow full latitude trough/ridge configuration. I personally don't like that setup because it creates narrow W-E wiggle room. Quite the clash of airmasses embedded in that setup with true acrtic air bumping right into warm subtropical air. Who wins (if anyone) surely won't be figured out in the med/long range. There are some general similarities with the beach blizzard bomb. Not saying I think it's a coast jackpot again. Just that a very strong storm is possible.  

What’s the spread on the ens for next weekends potential coastal? Is there agreement of at least a coastal? 

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Congrats NYC. It's a jacked up evolution with a weird miller b'ish transfer with a negative trough. Slp in the atlantic moves SE-NW. Basically no chance the euro just nailed that evolution a week out.

To me it looks like a half decent overrunning setup even though verbatim there is no love for our area this run.

Both GFS, fv3 and GGEM have coastals somewhere on the east coast during the same time period. Definitely something to watch. 

My thinking on the next 7 weeks is this. Mappyville will get plenty of chances. They’ll end up over climo easy. The I95 corridor section of the forum will get at least 2 more accumulating snows. That should put them at or above climo on the year. My reasoning is this...

1. There will not be a shortage of opportunities. Even if we get into extreme blocking/cold there will still be shots at clippers which may favor areas to the north and west. 

2. Cold may not be prodominate everywhere but it will be lurking. In my opinion this is the best place to be. Do we really want arctic cold? We all know we don’t want the freezer because more often then not it will shut us out from snow. Give me cold in the neighborhood and I’ll taky my chances with 5-8 events and land a couple. 

3. All we need is one coastal bomb and dca/Balt will hit climo. Looking at the LR it appears there will be some tight gradient type events that would favor areas to the north and west.  Plenty of chances for everyone. 

I know this isn’t a real scientific post. I get that. We live in the MA though. A couple things are a guarantee. Super cold almost never verifies. Blocking almost never verifies for as long as forecasted. We almost never get weeks on end of snow on snow on snow. The thing to hang your hat on is this. If we can even get part of the blocking/cold to verify over the next 7 weeks everyone will be fine come the end of March. And at this point that looks very possible. 

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A significant change is coming no matter what. Of course if it doesnt immediately flipping to cold/snow the acknowledgement of a pattern change will be subjective.... lol. Model skill decreases greatly on the front side of changes and the upcoming period through the end of the month will be no different. Not sure about your area but the mid atlantic generally doesnt do well on the front side of changes towards a colder and blockier regime. The longer it lasts the chances for winter precip keep going up. 

Will we flip to a classic big snow pattern before Feb? You can never be sure until it's happening. I'm forecasting and steep increase in lack of patience and steep decrease in post quality and critical thinking. 

That forecast has already come to fruition. It started last night. 

1 minute ago, paxpatriot said:

Some of the worst last-minute trends I can remember. Folks who were expecting a foot yesterday might be getting an inch of rain instead.

It's a good reminder for all of us along the I95 corridor. The north trend is real this winter it seems. More amped as leads shorten. Whatever you want to call it. We gotta have some wiggle room with the R/S line or someone is more than likely gonna get screwed! Checking some obs in western maryland and temps are 1-2 degrees above the forecasted highs already....

4 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Welp, here we basically are PSU's Jan 20th pattern change, and shockingly enough, its still just two weeks away.

I guess the mid week storm is rain now too?

Haha...posts like this after a week where areas of the forum got over 12” of snow. Posts like this where the pattern is going to go from “not a shutout” to the real deal in the next week. Posts like this honestly make me not want to post much anymore. 

18z hrrr at 30hrs...use at your own peril...

6 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Cranky is not a real met. Not saying hes wrong because some NWS branches did mention it. 

Yup. He posted the NWS updates tossing it. 

I believe cranky posted something about how the NAM's were being tossed today...but who cares...

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Phase changes with the NAO like what's progged happen pretty violently and are rarely modeled or forecast well. We're going to see all kinds of different versions until the block is established (assuming it does... looks good now). Once the blocking is in place then mid/long range will be more trustworthy. We're really close to victory with the AO/NAO. Ens haven't slipped back at all and ops are spitting out big blocking looks left and right but it's right on the cusp of too far out in time to discuss details. Another 4-5 days and it should be game on in the tracking dept. 

It’s not like we haven’t had stuff to track over the last week. We haven’t really had a break even though this weekend didn’t pan out. We’re already tracking another threat for mid next week already. 

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS holds steady, actually going more north then it has in previous runs.

Not good for us but didn’t go north. 

Icon even gets everyone with a little on the backend as well. Best case scenario right there. IMO 

1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I guess you didnt see the euro??

Or the Ukie.

For what it's worth the NAVGEM is way south and east. Still doesn't really help us out much but is interesting nonetheless.  

Hearing the euro is coming in south and flatter.

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

yea its troubling...as long as we don't see that start to show up on the ensembles its ok I guess but its a total disaster...not even close to the progression we are expecting.  I really do think the key is on the pac side though...the NAO is a response to the initial ridging from the pacific side into the AO space...which the atlantic ridge takes advantage of to retrograde and link up.  No pacific ridge and no NAO ridge.  THe gfs and fv3 have been reverting the pacific to the previous pattern which destroys the EPO ridge and the rest of the pattern breaks down before it even gets started.  That would be an epic fail if it went down that way. 

Euro control did the same thing actually...but the majority of the ensembles, especially at 6z said that was not how this goes down.  But at what point would you start to worry that the more skilled operational and control runs seem to see things differently?

This is why some of us track every little threat like our lives depended on it. We know that any long range epic pattern could vanish quickly...not saying it’s going to...blah blah...

Icon gives north and west of cities a frozen front end. Appears the CAD is showing up as we get closer to game time. 

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

weenie rule #648465: lack of sampling

But the lack of sampling this time would not be in our favor.  So not a weenie rule. And I’m pretty sure it was a met making the post. His point was that even though it looks there is s positive trend right now it could easily go right back to the way it looked yesterday. 

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You and I both know that’s not going to happen. Anyway, your region looks better and if I lived where you did, I’d be excited about the trends.  But I’m resigned to this being rain here.  For us here, I think people should temper the excitement.  I don’t expect models to make the drastic change we would need.  There’s only but so much that it can swing.  I hope I’m wrong. 

Was reading in the NE forum and they were saying that the region the southern shortwave is going through is an area that lacks good sampling. That may be one of the reasons for a weaker less phased system. The trends could continue but it could also go back to being a more westerly wound up system if the southern system is being sampled to weak right now. 

Looks like the 12z NAM is coming back to reality.