MD Snow

Just now, Ji said:

did something happen in the relationship between TT and the canadien?

been super slow coming out recently on TT.

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nice hit on the icon. It's funny because that shortwave has been a rain event for a while. Now cold/suppressed with snow. -NAOs are good

It snows on us from hrs 153-174. Like it. 

We should keep an eye on the clipper for Sunday. 0z icon improved at h5 and gets flurries into the area. Still time for it to trend into something for us. 

2 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Just can’t get any consistency with guidance showing the -NAO which is why it’s usually nothing more than a unicorn.

There is blocking consistently across all guidance for all of next week.

14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The NAO does break down towards the end of the run. But I am encouraged to see it go negative in the early/mid range. This is the closest we have seen it modeled. I will worry about the long range later.

Weenie post incoming - how many times has the nao been forecasted to go negative in the long range and didn’t verify? Maybe now that we have it in the short/med range it will hold in the long range? Also, isn’t the soi gonna go negative soon? MJO moving into later phases? All points to the blocking not breaking down?  

4 minutes ago, frd said:

Anti Consensus 

Courtesy  33andrain

 

Yeah, not a lot of consensus on track/timing. But definite consensus on a storm threat. That’s all you can ask for at a 7 day lead. 

All 12z ops...gfs, euro, jma, gem, fv3, and icon have a coastal storm next Tuesday night and/or Wednesday. Still a long way off but it’s a signal. 

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not being a Deb but u realize this is like 7 minutes of sleet then rain right?

Yup. I think everyone realizes that. Just pointing out that the Nam's aren't the only model that have something frozen showing up tomorrow in the area. Nothing of consequence. 

Just now, jaydreb said:

Euro trolling us.  Has two snow events in next 10 days.  

Things are moving around a ton right now. We won't know anything about a specific threat for next week until the current storm on Thursday gets out of the way. Friday we should start getting some clarity on the Monday-Friday timeframe next week. At this point though, it looks like we have a window of opportunity. That's all you can as for at a 7-10 day lead. 

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

we are in the PSU window of new pattern but he bailed

If we're honest, we can't really be sure that the look will verify next week. However, does anyone else think it's hilarious how whenever chill or psu start being deb's we get some serious glimmers of hope? Remember, the first week of January? Snowstorm the next week. Remember this morning? Model's start immediately start showing a better look. This is the year of "weather's just gonna do what weather's gonna do..."

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Too bad nothing shows up... even SNE gets nothing out of it

Yup...but there are a lot of moving parts. I just have hunch that someone along the east coast scores something next week. We've seen hits here and there by various models over the last couple of days. Both GFS/GGEM/EURO jumped on board with a good look up top today. We're at 7 days from that good look. Starting to get that look like of the weeklies. Who knows if it will last but if that look does indeed verify next week someone on the east coast will score something. 

Yeah. Next week is our chance to score something. At this point looks like the North East has the best chance but like chill always says, give me that look up top and i'll let the chips fall...

2 hours ago, high risk said:

While we focus on the medium range and an outside shot at a little snow as the rain ends Thursday, there appears to be a very subtle threat for tomorrow midday and afternoon.    While the bulk of the rain will fall Wednesday night when temps are plenty warm, the NAM and NAM nest both show the possibility of a few light showers around Wednesday, and temperatures are only slowly going to climb into the mid and upper 30s.    More relevant, the ground is insanely cold, so I could see a situation in which light rain is falling at 36 degrees, and the roads and sidewalks become icy due to the skin temps lagging far behind the air temps.    I called it a subtle threat, as temperatures will be rising,  and there probably won't be much precip around, but an icy surprise for some folks isn't out of the question.

EDIT:   the nam nest is somewhat on its own with temps staying very cold during the day tomorrow, but I wouldn't write it off

Appears the GGEM jumped on board to the idea at 12z...

I’ll take the look up top at h5 on the op 12z gfs next week and let the chips fall. 

It’s an op but at hr 210 on the 12z gfs doesn’t look to shabby. Workable. -nao it appears. 

Yeah mid to end of next week def looks like a time to score. 

13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Third wave in this progression *could* be the winner if baroclinic keeps moving s and e with each wave. But alas this is more than 5 days out and it's the gfs op so grain of salt with this. Verbatim tho you can see where this sort of setup/pattern could go.

So are we rooting for the NSW to slow down a touch here to allow the SSW to amplify? 

I think all you can say Is that there’s a threat window for next Monday-Wednesday. Lots of moving parts. Won’t know anything concrete until at the earliest Thursday. 

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Fv3 just put out some pure porn with the coastal

Thank goodness. Was watching the regular 18z gfs and envisioning the melts from no legit threats...

Am I wrong to think we've got spacing issues between storms after Thursday's rainer? Seems like there just isn't enough room for things to amplify. Sure there's a chance for a piece to phase in but it seems just as likely for a piece to be a kicker....

Anybody got the Ukie at 144? 

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill you know I had a bad feeling after the last weekly run.  Remember how we noted the anomalies backed off significantly which suggested increased divergence compared to previous runs. It’s typically a red flag when divergence increases as lead times shorten. 

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

CFS weeklies still look very good through early March.

Cool bro...lol

Cracks me up that people are whining about the pattern in 10 days. I guess that they don’t realize that we are actually in a pattern right now that has opportunities in the short range to see winter weather. Areas of the forum got over a foot of snow last week. Areas north and west picked up a sloppy inch or two last night. We’ve got 1-2 chances at wintry weather over the next week. Hopefully, everyone doesn’t get to the first or second week in February and miss the “good pattern” that is actually happening now...

I'm cherry picking this morning but here's the three chances we have this week of seeing wintery weather....

12z NAM has a wintery mix for parts of the area Wednesday. 

FV3 has rain changing to snow on Thursday. 

And GEFS has a pretty good signal for the coastal on Sun/Mon.