MD Snow

Both the fv3 and gfs have the storm next weekend. It’s south of us because of a disturbance to the north but it’s there. Seems to be showing up a lot on ensembles. 

FWIW 18z RGEM has an inch From dc to the north east with a max of 1.5-2” on the upper eastern shore. 

Bring on the NE MD pummeled posts! 

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I have noticed on a few runs some hints of weak coastal development- sort of looks like an inverted trough. That's always a high probability way to score some snow at this latitude. 

Interesting to look at the positive snow depth change from the 18z 12k. You can kind of see some kind of coastal enhancement... Wouldn't be a bad little event considering it's been nothing up to this point.  

12z GEPS seems to headed in the right direction - towards the GEFS. Not quite there but better than it has been imo. 

Just started mixing with snow in Glen Burnie.

Rain/Sleet mix in the GB. 39 degrees. 

13 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

The squall depiction on the NAM Nest still looks pretty prolific for north of I-70. Could be a fun day tomorrow for some. Potential low vis and brief heavy snow with big, fluffy dendrites. 

Yup. However, it did look better in yesterday's runs up through 6z this morning. Kind of a step back at 12z. 

If the NAM’s are indeed right. I’d say the icon/cmc/rgem handled this the best from the get go. 

Up to 35 after a low of 22 around midnight. 

28 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

True, but with the super cold temps wouldn’t take much QPF to get some accumes

Yeah if we could eeek out .15-.2” it would be a solid 2-4” event. 

GEFS now has the .1” going through md now. Hadn’t really had more than .05 until 6z. Would be interested to see if there is much spread between the individual members. 

Anybody got the 6z euro or 0z eps for this event? 

21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I like how the Maryland DOTs are wasting taxpayer money with bringing when it's going to start as a mix or rain (I-95 east) for a time.

Had the same thought driving around today. 

My yard is frozen solid and even though it got above freezing today it stayed pretty frozen all day. This airmass is not that bad for an event like this. It's not like we're going to top out in the mid-forties tomorrow and have to wetbulb down in order to get a changover. If it's cloudy all day temps won't get out of the mid-thirties even east of 95 imo. Once it changes over it's gonna stick. 

19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Unless things start amplifying and congealing into a cohesive system, I think 3" it the max potential and that's prob a big stretch. Nothing shows any more than a weak wave pulsing through and there's no mechanism that I can see to turn it into something better. The one thing going for it is efficiency. Frozen ground should allow whatever falls to stick. 

Did you see the 18z ICON? I feel like I could see a way for it to get better. More involvement with moisture from the gulf? Getting the low to pop further north off the se coast? Do you not see those as viable options? 

GFS is pretty much the same for Friday. Maybe a little less precip. Just noise at this lead. Next 24 hrs should be interesting with this one. Could it turn into something bigger or will it stay a 1-2" type deal? 

edit: FV3 is pretty much like regular gfs. Stripes md with .1". 

FV3 still looks good. Has .25-.5 most of us in corridor with .5 striped down the bay. 

Squalls look good on RGEM.

Edit : GFS showing something now on Wed as well...

Just now, Ji said:

im more excited about friday than tomorrow

Me too. It was close to being something better for us...

ICON looks better for the friday deal. Better at h5. Better precip shield. Stronger lp popping off the se coast. This could trend to be legit for us. Especially considering that appears we won't have temp issues. 

I'd also like to point out, for those who dump on the ICON, it's consistently advertised this event for a few days now while non of the other globals had it...

3k has a pretty epic squall like on Wednesday...

9 minutes ago, high risk said:

         agree totally with this.    it's also complicated by the NAM and HRRR showing light precip for the *morning* rush hour too, especially north of DC.     Depending on your model of choice, it could be snow, sleet, or freezing rain.

Yeah 16z hrrr has light snow in the corridor at 10z tomorrow morning with temps below freezing.

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Got a feeling the mason-dixon counties get an advisory this afternoon.  Maybe northern howard and montgomery get one, but that's stretching it.

If the weight the fv3 or gfs at all, they will definitely give the entire cwa an advisory by tomorrow morning. 

@psuhoffman you do realize that you are the most likely to stay all snow and get the most accumulations out of this, right? 

Looks like the 12z GEFS just blinked. 

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Do you have total QPF?  

Looks like .25-.5 for most with a sliver of .5 just east of 95 through the bay.