OSUmetstud
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Posts posted by OSUmetstud
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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:
I guess they are expecting landfall a bit South of the model consensus.
Give its the nws theyre probably tayloring the impacts to follow the nhc track forecast?
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19 hours ago, Hazey said:
I really want to see YYT report snow in June. Let's do this...lol
Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkThird latest to 59f/15c ever, finally got there today. Hit about 65. It's been a brutal late spring. And no to snow. It's not even remarkable for yyt to report snow in June. There's been 5" events in June. How about snow for Halifax in June?
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faint green glow to the northeast. Didn't even know anything was going on tonight so no confirmation bias lol. Kp is 5 and the map shows it pretty close so I don't think I'm seeing things.
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christ..my heart sank for a minute.
overall, pretty funny though after you get over the initial shock
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Well both our synoptic and mesoscale courses have extremely heavy focuses on forecasting (we're required to forecast every day, write summaries if we bust, use GEMPAK to forecast, etc.) but I'm not going to claim that when you graduate with a B.S. that you're a "good" forecaster just because you earned a BS and I think you know that wouldn't be true too - that was my point.
I didn't feel like a fish out of water when I left SUNY Oswego to work in Bermuda...synoptic 1 and 2, the forecast game, and the student website all helped hone forecasting skills. However, I still learned a hell of a lot about forecasting while working in Bermuda for 3 1/2 years. Isohume is right that forecasting is a bit of an art. This is why knowledgeable amateurs can occasionally outforecast meteorologists.
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IMO the U.S. National Weather Service needs to adopt similar training programs to which many other National Weather Services around the world have including the Canadian, UK Met Office, and BoM have whereby all incoming forecasters I think are subject to an 8-12 month course which teaches forecasting...too many incoming Mets have next to no experience and the only reason that the forecasts that do get put out in this country are superior to those around the world is that we have the best forecasting models by a large margin as well as a massive upper air network.
the euros might disagree
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If at some point in the future vets are so numerous that they completely block out all non-vets from being considered, then I'd consider a change in policy. Right now, that just isn't even close to the case. It seems like vets do block some of the panels...but probably not most...and definitely not all.
Experience still does matter in vets vs. non-vets. If a vet is just a vet with a BS met degree..he would not make GS-09 grade. Therefore, non-vets at GS-09 would still be considered on equal footing to a vet or vets that were referred at GS-07 and GS-05. The MIC is not required to choose a vet in a case like that.
For example, I was referred to Spartanburg, SC and Charleston, WV at GS-07 and GS-09, but not at GS-05. Vets were qualified at GS-05 so they were referred, while non-vets at that grade were not. Gold candidates at GS-07 and GS-09 were referred to the MIC.
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I don't have a problem with the way vets preference is done.
Each and every one of has a choice of joining the military and serving in a forward area and putting your life on the line. This is a policy wherein the government gives back to the vets for their sacrifice. If you don't like it...you can sign up tomorrow and get your vet preference in a few years. Now, I think there certainly is some potential for better candidates being overlooked in deference to a veteran...but I think it's a small price to pay. Having a better resume doesn't even really make you a better forecaster, anyway.
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Not a big deal? I beg to differ..This makes it extremely difficult for a non-vet to get in. Most openings have several hundred applicants these days so more often than not out of that number you often do have at least 3 vets, especially for any place that's halfway decent. Now I did eventually get in but on 3/4 of my applications I was blocked and not reffered do to this despite being in the gold catagory.
not a big deal in the sense I'm not going to b**ch about those who served in war getting preference.
several hundred is a little bit of a stretch..the most i've heard is 430...and those tend to be highly sought after east coast locations. Buffalo had 116 last winter.
I actually haven't been blocked from the last several applications I've sent in. The downsizing of the Iraq and Afghanistan operations could be concerning for the non-vets trying to get in over the next couple years, though.
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Yeah like others have said here...it was out of the NWS's hands. You should still apply for volunteerships at your nearest WFO tho. The NWS can afford to be very picky in hiring new interns these days and folks at the top of the list generally have their masters or a good amount of experience. Also, qualified veterans are getting more weight in the hiring process now with SCEP out of the way...so anything you can do to add to your resume which makes you stand out is highly recommended.
just to let you know...qualified vets don't just get the 5 pts. anymore. If there is a few that are qualified at a specific grade...they actually block the non-vets from being considered at that grade. It's not a big deal...but I've been qualified at the gold category for a number of applications but still did not get referred to the local office because a couple vets or more qualified at all three internship grades and blocked the rest of the golds.
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there's hardly any damage to W 23rd Terrace St. major damage is found from Gabby St. Blvd and south...2 blocks away.
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his post was at 5:27 that the couplet was nearly on top of him, so looks like some stretch of time between that and their current damage path at least, if he was being literal.
There was a debris ball on a radar scan at 538...when the tornado looked very near him. I'm wondering if the NWS preliminary storm survey might be off by a few minutes.
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Longer, more detailed PNS for Joplin out:
(Timestamp is off by an hour haha)
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
938 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
...JOPLIN TORNADO GIVEN A PRELIMINARY HIGH END EF-4 RATING...
* DATE...22 MAY 2011
* BEGIN LOCATION...APPROXIMATELY 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JOPLIN
* END LOCATION...1 MILE SOUTHEAST OF DUQUESNE
* ESTIMATED BEGIN TIME...541 PM
* ESTIMATED END TIME...550 PM
* MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF-4
* ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...190-198 MPH
* ESTIMATED PATH WIDTH...3/4 OF A MILE
* PATH LENGTH...7 MILES
* FATALITIES...116 REPORTED AS OF 3 PM MONDAY
* INJURIES...400 REPORTED AS OF 3 PM MONDAY
* BEGIN LAT/LON...37.06 N / 94.57 W
* END LAT/LON...37.06 N / 94.39 W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAMS RATED THE TORNADO THAT KILLED
OVER 100 PEOPLE IN AND AROUND JOPLIN AS A HIGH END EF-4 TORNADO.
BASED UPON SURVEYS COMPLETED TODAY...MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
BETWEEN 190 AND 198 MPH. THE TORNADO HAD A MAXIMUM WIDTH OF 3/4 TO
ONE MILE.
THE TORNADO INITIALLY TOUCHED DOWN AROUND 541 PM NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF COUNTRY CLUB AND 32ND STREET. ADDITIONAL SURVEYS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCTED TO FURTHER DEFINE THE STARTING POINT AND
INTENSITY AT THIS LOCATION.
DAMAGE BECAME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TORNADO CROSSED MAIDEN
LANE...CAUSING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO NEARLY ALL WINDOWS ON THREE
SIDES OF ST JOHNS HOSPITAL AS WELL AS TO THE ROOF. THE TORNADO
FURTHER INTENSIFIED AS IT DESTROYED NUMEROUS HOMES AND BUSINESSES TO
THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE HOSPITAL. THE HIGHEST RATED DAMAGE IN
THIS AREA WAS TO A CHURCH SCHOOL THAT HAD ALL BUT A PORTION OF ITS
EXTERIOR WALLS DESTROYED AS WELL AS TO A NURSING HOME. WINDS IN
THAT AREA WERE ESTIMATED AT 160 TO 180 MPH.
THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO DESTROY OVER 100 HOMES BETWEEN 32ND AND
20TH STREETS. THREE STORY APARTMENT COMPLEXES HAD THE TOP TWO FLOORS
REMOVED...OTHER TWO STORY COMPLEXES WERE PARTIALLY LEVELED. A BANK
WAS TOTALLY DESTROYED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE VAULT. A DILLONS
GROCERY STORE ALSO HAD SIGNIFICANT ROOF AND EXTERIOR WALL DAMAGE.
LASTLY...THE EXTERIOR AND INTERIOR WALLS OF A TECHNICAL SCHOOL...A
MORTAR AND REBAR REINFORCED CINDER BLOCK BUILDING...FAILED.
THE TORNADO CROSSED RANGELINE ROAD NEAR 20TH STREET. THE MOST
INTENSE DAMAGE WAS NOTED JUST EAST OF THIS INTERSECTION WHERE A HOME
DEPOT WAS DESTROYED BY AN ESTIMATED 190 TO NEARLY 200 MPH
WINDS. IN ADDITION...THE CUMMINS BUILDING...A CONCRETE BLOCK AND
HEAVY STEEL BUILDING...HAD ITS STEEL ROOF BEAMS COLLAPSE. SPORTS
ACADEMY AND THE WALMART ALSO SUFFERED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE.
THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG AND SOUTH OF 20TH
STREET DESTROYING NUMEROUS WAREHOUSE STYLE FACILITIES AND RESIDENCES
THROUGH DUQUESNE ROAD. WINDS IN THIS AREA MAY ALSO APPROACH 200 MPH.
THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO DESTROYING NUMEROUS HOMES BEFORE WEAKENING
AS IT TURNED SOUTHEAST TOWARD INTERSTATE 44. SUBSEQUENT DAMAGE
SURVEYS WILL BE REQUIRED TO DETERMINE THE SCOPE OF ADDITIONAL
REPORTS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 71 AND
INTERSTATE 44.
The path length will likely be longer than reported thus far... since there were reports of damage on I-44 as the storm passed through.
some good news for those worried about JoMo...the tornado was strongest after it passed his apparent location.
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I wouldn't be surprised if it was a little higher than 50%, but I'd be surprised if it was that high.
think about all the tornado warnings we see compared to the number of tornadoes...much more warnings.
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Often, "false alarms" aren't false at all. Just because your house (or church) didn't get hit by a tornado when you heard the tornado siren doesn't mean there wasn't a tornado or good reason for the warning. There is a concerted effort to avoid "sounding the alarm on a weak signal". "Weak signal" is a pretty ill-defined term, though. I would venture to guess (out of my a**) that the number of "false positives" is less than 50%, which means if you hear a tornado siren, there's probably an associated tornado. The issue may be that the public doesn't necessarily realize that a confirmed warning doesn't mean that everyone who heard the siren got hit by a tornado. Indeed, only a small part of the warning area usually does withstand a direct hit.
I think the FAR for tornado warnings is higher than 50%. I thought I remember something like 80 or 90%, but I could be wrong.
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I minored in Forensic Science, I've wondered if I could parlay that into something.
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HP supercells today? Airmass is pretty moist...PWATs are 1.4-1.5".
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Pearls to the swine. Few viewers need top shelf meteorology skills from their guy or girl on the tube.
From what I've heard, there is a movement in the TV world back towards real mets.
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Another possible direction is to check with the local congressional representative, and ask them what is going on with the hiring procedure. Have them send a copy in writing.
They should be more responsive and tenacious than a DOC/NOAA/NWS administrative office. A representative who ignores constituant services (such as navigating the federal labyrinth) doesn't remain a representative for long.....
I found the Buffalo Intern position contact at Eastern Region extremely helpful, as long as she was telling me the correct information lol. She talked to me for like 10 minutes on the phone about the process and Veteran's Preference.
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What did he say about this issue? little confused. He was the MIC I actually met with recently. Like I said, he didn't mention anything about it too me.
He didn't mention anything about it specifically...I just told him that the person at region told me I made gold at all three grades but I wasn't referred. And he mentioned the Veteran's Preference issue and told me I'm close and to keep trying.
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I don't want to hear someone say something. I want to see the ruling in writing and I want to know why the union has not sent out an official document on this new hiring practice to anyone in NOAA. I will ask our station union representative to look into it though.
As soon as you hear something official let me know. Tom Niziol (NWS BUF MIC)said the same thing when I asked him if he could look at my resume.
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I think we can chalk this one up to conflicting information. Also seems isohume may be on to something as well regarding what/amount of information they divulge. I wish I could get a straight answer, but it seems nobody truly knows.I truly hope I am wrong, but the latest trends seem to indicate some sort of change happening.
The change might be that veteran's block non-veterans at specific grades...not just get the 5 or 10 pts. on their application. I don't know how long the "block rule" has been in place.
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I want to see this supposed ruling in writing. I have a hard time believing a major hiring practice has been made in NOAA and I and others employed by NOAA haven't heard anything about it. If this would've happened...the bargaining unit (union) would have sent out a communique detailing this new law to everyone. I just don't believe in the hearsay about all this is all.
Well give someone a call...in fact, other NWS mets on this board in that met job thread reiterated the same procedure that I was told about by two people at NWS ER.
Hurricane Maria
in Tropical Headquarters
Posted
I highly doubt san juan got cat 4 winds. 2 and 3 most likely. Elevated sections of eastern pr got 5 winds...but top end sea level winds die out very quickly out away from marine exposure in the ne eyewall.