uncle W

seasons greatings...Christmas 1961

we missed by one week having a great Chistmas storm...1964 was a shock to me after five straight years with snow for Christmas...near 70 Christmas day in Newark...three straight 60 degree days in a row...January 65 was a good month with snow on four straight week ends...bad luck kept this month from being memorable...

Dec 5-6th 2003 had two days with snow with a few hours of nothing...?

well 1883 had 8" on the 24th...after a 12 hour lull another 5" fell Christmas day...

12/24...11.4"...the only year with a ten inch snowfall in Dec without another near 6" snowfall or bigger after December...

there is still one member in the ao forecast that goes against the grain...I doubt its right...

1955, 1964, 2008 all suffered the same faith...Christmas eve 1964 was one og the foggiest nights I can remember...the snow that was on the ground for 5 days melted before midnight...

the only year when NYC got a 10" snowfall in December and did not get another storm near 6" was 1912-13...

you dont get 10" storms every other week...usually its every other year...I think the first half of January will be interesting...then a big thaw the last ten days...

Did I imagine what happened a week ago?...I imagine we will see that again in February...

a half inch on 4/10 with a record low of 28...Feb 8th 1974 had the largest storm that was 6"...Freehold NJ scored a 11" storm on 2/25///

1973-74 is a good analog for this winter so far...that year had the ice storm on 12/16-17...snow and ice on Jan 3rd-4th and 9th-10th...Big thaw the last week in January...Feb starts with frequent light sleet and snow...a surprise 6" snowfall on the 8th...snow on 2/25 is heavy south of the city...surprise snowstorm on 3/29...parting shot on April 10th...snowfall is way ahead of that year so far...10.5" to 2.8"...all we need is the same totals 73-74 had the rest of the way to get to 30" for the season...

these are the years with at least one day having a -5sd AO...since 1950... 1959-60.....11/18...11/19... 1962-63.....01/21... 1965-66.....01/28... 1968-69.....02/13...02/15... 1969-70.....03/04...03/05...03/06...03/07...03/08...03/09...03/10... 1976-77.....12/28...12/29...01/11...01/12..01/13...01/14...01/15...01/16...01/17 1977-78.....02/05...02/06... 1984-85.....01/18...01/19...01/20... 2002-03.....10/18... 2009-10.....12/20...12/21...12/22...12/23...12/24...12/25...01/03...01/04...01/05...01/06...02/06...02/14... 2010-11.....12/18... 2012-13.....03/19...03/20...03/21...03/22... ..................................................................... dates..................-AO 1...01/15/1977.....-7.433... 2...01/16/1977.....-7.331... 3...01/14/1977.....-7.311... 4...01/13/1977.....-6.520... 5...03/05/1970.....-6.365... 6...01/19/1985.....-6.226... 7...01/17/1977.....-6.168... 8...03/06/1970.....-6.114... 9...03/04/1970.....-5.918... 10 11/18/1959.....-5.896... 11 12/21/2009.....-5.821... 12 01/12/1977.....-5.802... 13 01/18/1985.....-5.693... 14 03/20/2013.....-5.688... 15 01/20/1985.....-5.581... 16 12/23/2009.....-5.577... 17 11/19/1959.....-5.545... 18 01/03/2010.....-5.533... 19 03/07/1970.....-5.525... 20 03/09/1970.....-5.519... 21 12/22/2009.....-5.508... 22 01/04/2010.....-5.403... 23 03/21/2013.....-5.399... 24 01/02/2010.....-5.384... 25 12/20/2009.....-5.341... 26 01/11/1977.....-5.333... 27 03/08/1970.....-5.320... 28 02/05/1978.....-5.291... 29 12/29/1976.....-5.287... 30 02/13/1969.....-5.282... 31 12/18/2010.....-5.265... 32 12/24/2009.....-5.256... 33 03/22/2013.....-5.240... 34 12/28/1976.....-5.206... 35 02/06/2010.....-5.205... 36 03/19/2013.....-5.193... 37 01/05/2010.....-5.180... 38 02/14/2010.....-5.132... 39 01/28/1966.....-5.130... 40 03/10/1970.....-5.115... 41 02/15/1969.....-5.102... 42 10/18/2002.....-5.098... 43 12/25/2009.....-5.052... 44 02/06/1978.....-5.026... 45 01/21/1963.....-5.010...

first thing is January 1967 was very mild with temps near 70 late in the month...a super thaw before a super pattern...the 1966 snowstorm started Christmas eve morning and ended around 4am Christmas morning...I don't think there has ever been a snowstorm Christmas eve noon to Christmas day noon...1912 had an 11" snowstorm Christmas eve but ended before midnight...1961 had a 6" storm that ended at midnight Christmas eve...1883 had 8" of snow Christmas eve day...then a lull untill another 5" christmas day...I never woke up Christmas morning with snow falling...1962 came close with light snow from late morning to the early afternoon...

1995 was colder...Dec will probably end up averaging closer to 2008 or 1959...if NYC hits 60 again this month it would be the third warm up 60 or higher...a typical la nina roller coaster...a warmer version of 1966-67...

the Dec 21-22, 1959 storm had 6-15" in the city...6" at Battery Park and 15" in the Bronx...13.7" in Central Park...8" in Brooklyn...

I thought the best months would be Dec and Feb...so far so good...I hate the fact that there will be a torch before Christmas...maybe we could get something like 12/23/1967...60 degrees one day...an inch or two of snow the next day...

December 1955, 1964, 1979 and 2008 had snowfalls within a week of Christmas but melted Christmas eve in a torch...

I did that for the blizzard of 96...my core sample was like 9 to 1 and the catch was 11 to 1 ratio...

there were three ice storms that month...the 7-8th storm was all below freezing for me...

this is the anniversary of the great ice storm of 1973...one of the analogs out for this year...

10" in Nov 1898...

I can only think of one time where NYC got a 10" storm in December and did not get another snowstorm almost equal or bigger...one of 20 times?...

if there is a lot of snow on the ground after this storm the warm up afterwards could be limited...the ao is forecast to crash again to lower levels than today...looks interesting...hopefully something comes on the 24th-25th...