uncle W

43 minutes ago, bklnwx1 said:

All this freezing rain talk has me recalling the biggest ice storm I've seen in NYC---late 1973. Here's some old photos I took in Midwood Brooklyn:

I had to drive thru Midwood to get to work that morning...no one was on the roads but me so it wasn't a bad drive except for a street being closed due to a tree falling over...many a pine tree and bush looked deformed that Spring...

February's deepest snow depth at Newark NJ since 1946...last year had 13 days with at least 10" on the ground...most on this list...

date................inches....total days 10"...

2/04/1961..........26"............7

2/18/2003..........23"............6

2/12/2006..........20"............3

2/12/1983...........19"............4

2/07/1978...........19"............7

2/19/1979...........19"............3

2/14/2014...........18"..........10

2/11/1994...........18"............9

2/01/2021..........17"...........13

2/01/2011..........15"............6

2/07/1967..........15"............5

2/10/1969..........14"............4

2/10/2010..........13"............4

2/16/1958..........13"............2

2/04/1948..........11"............6

2/21/1947..........11"............2

2/09/2013..........10"............1

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we were all waiting on the MJO back in December. But it got stuck in the warm phases longer than forecast due to the record warm pool north of Australia. The magnitude of the shift in January matches some recent years like 14-15 and 15-16. But those were El Niño years which we came to expect dramatic changes after a warm start. This is really the first time a La Niña shifted so much from December record warmth and lack of snow to record snow and colder in January. Now we have an example of this NE PAC blocking pattern during ENSO neutral 14-15, El Niño 14-15, and La Niña in 21-22. So it can occur in varying ENSO  states. This makes seasonal forecasting more challenging since this mode can replace or enhance ENSO expectations. 
 

 

 

Wasn’t 1984-85 similar? 

January 7-8th 1994 ice storm in Brooklyn...

Newark NJ had 28 days with a minimum 32 or lower...tied for 9th most since 1957...

31 in 1977

30 in 1970...

30 in 2009...

29 in 2003...

29 in 1985...

29 in 1981...

29 in 1976...

29 in 1957...

28 in 2022...2011...1996...1994...1982...1978...1971...1965...1961...

35 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

 

southern Brooklyn and the east shore of Staten Island got close or over 10"...

in my lifetime only two winters had a cold January and February after a warm December...1957-58 and 2014-15...both el nino years...1993-94 and 1967-68 had a cold Jan/Feb after a mild Dec...both neutral years...1984-85 was cold January and the first half of February but the second half of Feb was warm...

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I' m not saying their total was egregious just off.

Let's first start with the basics, the Park reported 1.2 inches of snow on the 28th and 7.3 inches on the 29th which equals 8.5 for the storm. Simple math right? Yet they recorded 8.3 inches as a storm total. It was at least 9-10. If they can't even add 1+1 I don't trust they can stick a ruler on a snowboard and record amounts, a lot of times they don't. Years and years of experience with them has taught me this. The Conservancy helped for awhile but I'm not sure who's recording totals there this year.

And I think the 5.8 from the 7th was a bit low too. Most likely in the 6.5 to 6.8 range.

they left out the 0.2" that fell earlier in the day...they treated it as two seperate events...

3 hours ago, nycwinter said:

if we only were closer to the storm in central park with the very good snow rations it would have been historic for the city...what a wasted month so many great chances for  huge snow totals in the city..

15.3" of snow in one month is significant...Atlantic City has 36" so far...the model mania ruined it for some people but not me...

10" imby...very nice storm...

just finish shoveling reality...I got at least 6" and its still snowing...maybe 8 when all is said and done...

snowing in Paradise PA...

the cold December of 1831...

NYC averaged 22.2...-2.7 lower than the lowest December in Central Park...Average came from Fort Columbus on Governors Island NY...I found a daily record from Erasmus Hall in Brooklyn NY...Highs and lows are the morning observation and afternoon observation...Highs and lows could be a little higher or lower each day...

day max...min...snow...depth...

01... 32.....23.....T.......1"

02... 32.....23.....0.......1"

03... 26.....22.....0.......1"

04... 30.....20.....2"......3"

05... 25.....14.....0.......3"

06... 25.....15.....0.......3"

07... 26.....14.....0.......3"

08... 28.....20.....0.......3"

09... 32.....24.....0.......3"

10... 30.....20.....0.......2"

11... 35.....20.....0.......1"

12... 27.....18.....0.......1"

13... 25.....16.....0.......1"

14... 23.....17.....1"......2"

15... 21.....13.....2"......4"

16... 25.....11.....0.......4"

17... 26.....11.....T.......4"

18... 17.......9.....0.......4"

19... 26.....18.....0.......4"

20... 26.....18.....0.......4"

21... 38.....24.....0.......2"

22... 24.....10.....0.......2"

23... 24.......8.....0.......2"

24... 38.....26.....2"......2" might have started as rain...

25... 34.....26.....1"......2" White Christmas...

26... 30.....20.....1"......3"

27... 25.....18.....0.......3"

28... 29.....21...10"....13"

29... 33.....24.....0.....13"

30... 24.....13.....0.....13"

31... 32.....18.....2"....13"

http://www.glenallenweather.com/ex9/Very%20Cold%20Periods%20in%20the%20Eastern%20US.pdf

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember with both of those storms the snow was already done by the time I woke up

that happened to me but I was in a stuper at the time and woke up at 12 noon......

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember they were both night time storms and I didn't see a single flake of snow fall, they both occurred entirely at night and were very quick moving.

 

I just showed a video with snow falling in the daytime...

On 1/19/2022 at 8:49 AM, LibertyBell said:

Didn't we have two back to back 4-5 inch  snowfalls that month a few days apart?

they were a week apart...the first storm on the 11th started as rain and measured 5" in Central park...less in southern Brooklyn...the 11th-23rd of January was a very cold period with 10.5" of snow...

two analogs that might be good for this year are 1956-57 and 1984-85...

NYC got 13" of snow on December 21-22 1959 but it wasn't a KU event...it was a localized event...

January 18-19th, 1984...I said 1983 in the video...

1.99" of precipitation...0.5" of snow at the start imby...

it would be nice to start a cold two week period with a blizzard...last time that happened was in January 1961...that two week cold wave had book end storms and many little events in between...Feb 1979 and 2003 had a great two weeks starting off with a modest snowstorm and ending with a bang...1961 and 1979 were extremely cold and snowy...

January 11th 1991 in Brooklyn...

1984-85 vrs 2021-22...monthly average temp...2021-22 snowfall is close to what 1984-85 had on this date...it ended up with 25" for the season...Feb warmed the second half of 85 and March was mild...will it happen again???

year.....Oct...Nov...Dec...Jan...

1984...61.8...47.3...43.8...28.8

2021...62.0...46.2...43.8...??? looks cold so far...