uncle W

some analog year winter monthly average temp...mild Dec...cold Jan...mild Feb...

winter.........Dec....Jan....Feb....Mar....total snowfall...

2021-22.....43.8...30.3...37.3....................17.5"...

1956-57.....40.9...28.5...37.3...41.9..........21.9"...

1953-54.....41.3...30.8...40.1...41.6..........15.8"...

1984-85.....43.8...28.8...36.6...45.1..........24.1"...

1999-00.....40.0...31.3...37.3...47.2..........16.3"...

1996-97.....41.3...32.2...40.0...41.9..........10.0"...

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks.  People should respect how great April 1982 was in that it would almost make the list of Top 10 March snowfalls too!  And the April 1910 storm (I hope I have the year right?) would be in the top 10 too.

I should remember this storm

..6.9" 3/8-9/1984

But I do not.... all snow?

And I definitely dont remember this

..8.6" 3/5/1981

too young, April 1982 which happened the following year was my first snowfall memory.

 

44 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Indeed-- I strongly believe April 1982 was more rare than March 1993 was and more historic too as well as more rare and historic than Sandy was.  Do you find the October 2011 event to be equally as rare and historic?

 

I would…1982, 1976-2002 April heat…January 2011 February 2010 snows…

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember this one so vividly

..6.2" 3/19/1992

It was NYC first 6"+ snowfall in YEARS, here it kept changing back and forth between snow and rain and we got like 4"...can you check the JFK numbers for this storm, please?

Wasn't there another one in the early 90s when we had two snow events in March, I remember one was forecast to be 5-8" but we ended up with 3-5" instead....was that also in March 1992 or a different year?

 

you can find all jfk numbers here...

Climate (weather.gov)

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Got anything for the 12-13....looks like that period is favored on the models

What are the days with the most 6" snowfalls?

Biggest snowfalls
21.0" 3/12-14/1888
18.1" 3/7-8/1941
14.5" 3/3-4/1960
14.5" 3/1-2/1914
12.0" 3/15-16/1896
11.8" 3/20-21/1958
11.6" 3/18-19/1956
10.6" 3/13-14/1993

10.0" 3/2/1896
..9.8" 3/21-22/1967

..9.4" 2/28-3/1 1949

..8.6" 3/5/1981

..8.4" 3/21-22/2018

..8.3" 3/1-2/2009

..8.0" 3/18-19/1892

..7.7" 3/6-7 1915

..7.7" 2/28-3/1 2005

..7.6" 3/6-7/1916

..7.6" 3/14/2017

..7.5" 3/5/2015

..7.3" 3/6-7/1923

..6.9" 3/8-9/1984

..6.7" 3/4-5/1917

..6.7" 3/16-17/1956

..6.6" 2/29-3/1/ 1968

..6.5" 3/5/1902

..6.2" 3/19/1992

..6.0" 3/6-7/1870

..6.0" 3/19/1890

..6.0" 3/10/1907

..6.0" 3/15/1906

March dates with the most 3" snowfalls...

3/2...6

3/6...7

3/15...5

3/16...5

3/22...6

3/29...4

17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There is a notable snow min 3/15-3/30 then a second peak 4/1-4/10...I don't know if thats purely by chance as we are only talking about a period of 130 years or it may be a factor of continued shortening wavelengths leading to better chance a system is not able to wrap up and go inland or along the coast in April leading to better chance of a favorable snow track

I know on March 6th there have been 15 snowfalls 2" or more on that date...2001 had 1.5" on 3/6...It could be the most 2" or more snowfall for any date throughout the season...

46 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1996 was outstanding with three 4"+ events in March and another one in April here.

When did it snow here in March 1999 and how much did we get?

mid March 1999...end of March 1997...First day of Spring 1998...April snow 2000...four straight bad winters with late snow chances...

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

March 1-10 snowfall in NYC has been a good indicator over the last 30 years on how snowy March will be. There is currently no measurable snowfall in the forecast through the 10th. All the years this has happened since 2010 have featured below normal snowfall for the month. 2004 was the last time there was a 4.0” or more total for the month. 1990s El Niño’s featured the best outcomes since they are backloaded by nature. But there was one La Niña year in 1999 that surpassed 4.0”.  So maybe a 1999 type outcome could be our best hope with the La Niña in the mix this winter.  

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Mar 1 to Mar 10	March Snowfall
1	2021-03-10	0.0	T
-	2020-03-10	0.0	T
-	2012-03-10	0.0	0.0
-	2011-03-10	0.0	1.0
-	2002-03-10	0.0	T
-	2000-03-10	0.0	0.4
-	1998-03-10	0.0	5.0
-	1992-03-10	0.0	9.4
-	1991-03-10	0.0	0.2
10	2010-03-10	T	T
-	2008-03-10	T	T
-	2004-03-10	T	4.8
-	1999-03-10	T	4.5
-	1995-03-10	T	T

 

in my lifetime it snowed on my Birthday March 28th or the day after a few times...

1959...27-28th...1" snow and sleet...

1970...29th...4" rain changing to snow...

1974...29th...3-4" rain changing to snow...

1984...28th-29th...3-4" snow/rain/sleet/snow...

1996...28th-29th...4" snow/rain/snow...

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

ISP is our only major station so far to exceed the new higher 1991-2020 seasonal snowfall normals. 
 

Station…..2021-2022 snowfall….1991-2020 average

NYC….17.5….29.8….-12.3

JFK….21.2….25.9……-4.7

LGA….23.7….29.8…..-6.1

ISP…..35.4….31.8……+3.6

EWR….17.1…..31.5…..-14.4

BDR….25.7….33.6…..-7.9

if NYC gets no more snow it would be like these winters...

2021-22...17.5"...8.3" biggest storm...

1961-62...18.1"...6.2" biggest storm...

1962-63...16.3"...4.2" biggest storm...

1967-68...19.5"...6.6" biggest storm...

1975-76...17.3"...4.2" biggest storm...

1980-81...19.4"...8.6" biggest storm...

1987-88...19.1"...5.8" biggest storm...

1999-00...16.3"...5.5" biggest storm...

Of all eight winters listed I like 1961-62 the best because its biggest snowfall came Christmas eve...Now if we get more snow before its over throw out this list...I still think NYC ends up with over 20" of snow...

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

But the question is when are we going to feel the effects? 

Spring...March 29th...

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I had that when I was in 7th grade I was in the hospital for 3 weeks lol

 

they say its a teen age thing...I'm a teenager at heart...

10 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Nothing to compare to having your appendix removed.   I hope you are on the mend and feeling well. 

thanks...I knew right away what it was and went to the hospital...so far so good...

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Sometimes and you don't know which forum I'm talking about.

I had an appendix removed and was out of touch for two days...what happened...

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

this is a very 1993-94 esque storm

 

there was a storm on February 12-13th 1993 that looks like what's forecast for Thur/Fri...3" of snow and ice changing to rain after hours of sleet...

I got squat from the squall...they don't make squalls like they used to...

temperature roller coaster continues and could get worse...I checked some analogs that are similar to this year...1956-57 was slightly cooler but snowfall is equal to that year so far...it ended with 22"...this year could get more...56-57 had days that hit 60 in Jan and Feb and the next day was 30 degrees colder...typical la nina swing's...

2003...

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Even with all the great late season snowstorms in recent years, my all-time favorite still remains the April 1982 blizzard. An unusually high amount of lightning and true blizzard conditions in April. It was also the last time NYC had 3 consecutive record low temperatures in a row. My 2nd place late season event was that heavy wet snowstorm on 3-21-18. The trees were absolutely gorgeous when the sun came out the next morning. 

I was in the Poconos for the April 1982 blizzard...I measured 13.5" in front of my house...drove home as the storm was ending (only car on the road)...my house in Brooklyn had 9" on the ground...the next day cold was just as anomalous with a max below freezing with clear skies...after the record cold another much lighter snowfall came...2" in the Poconos and 1" at Newark...

March/April 6" or greater snowstorms in Central Park...

6.0" 3/6-7/1870...

10.0" 4/13/1875...

21.0" 3/12-13/1888

6.0" 3/19/1890...

8.0" 3/17-18/1892...

6.0" 3/4/1893...

10.0" 3/2/1896...

12.0" 3/15-16/1896...

6.5" 3/3/1902...

6.0" 3/15/1906...

6.0" 3/10/1907...

14.5" 3/1-2/1914...

6.7" 3/6-7/1915...

10.2" 4/3-4/1915

7.6" 3/6/1916

6.7" 3/4-5/1917...

6.5" 4/8-9/1917...

7.3" 3/6-7/1923...

8.5" 4/1/1924...

6.4" 4/6-7/1938...

18.1" 3/7-8/1941...

6.4" 4/5/1944...

6.7" 3/16-17/1956...

11.6" 3/18-19/1956...

11.8" 3/20-21/1958...

14.5" 3/3-4/1960...

9.8" 3/21-22/1967...

6.6" 3/1/1968...

8.6" 3/5/1981...

9.6" 4/6/1982...

6.9" 3/8-9/1984...

6.2" 3/19/1992...

10.6" 3/13-14/1993...

7.7" 3/1/2005...

8.3" 3/1-2/2009...

7.5" 3/5/2015...

7.6" 3/14/2017...

8.4" 3/21-22/2018

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

capped off with March 1914.... that was a triple phaser wasn't it?

February 1921 is right up there too with 18" of snow over 3 days and 5" LE lol.

Feb 1920...although Feb 1921 had its own big 12" snow and sleet storm that started as rain...

Newark is running below average 32 degrees or lower minimum days...46 as of today...record low is 53 set in 2011-12...second lowest amount for Dec didn't help...

Year..........Oct...Nov...Dec.....Jan.....Feb....Mar.....Apr...Tot...

2021-22.....0........2........6.......28........12...........................46..........as of 2/14...

2020-21.....1.........2.......19.......25.......21.......12.........2......82

2019-20.....0.......11.......19........18.......13.........3.........1.......65

2018-19.....0.........9.......17.......25.......21.......16..........1.......89

2017-18.....0.........8.......21.......24.......13.......18.........4.......88

2016-17.....0.........1........18........13.......18.......16.........0.......66

2015-16.....1.........4.........0........27.......17.........6.........5.......60

2014-15.....0.......12.......12........28......28.......19.........0.......99

2013-14.....0.......12.......21........27.......25.......19.........1......105

2012-13.....0.........6.......14........21.......23.......15.........3.......82

2011-12.....1..........1........14........17........15..........5.........0.......53

2010-11.....0.........3.......27........28.......21........12.........0.......96

2009-10.....0.........1.......20.......25.......24.........2.........0.......72

2008-09.....0.......12.......20.......30.......23.......13.........0.......98

2007-08.....0.........3.......17........22.......21........14.........0.......77

2006-07.....0.........2.......12........19........27........12.........5.......77

2005-06.....0.........6.......24.......15........20.......14.........0.......79

2004-05.....0.........4.......17........20.......23.......19..........0.......83

2003-04.....0.........2.......22.......27.......26........11..........3.......91

2002-03.....0.........4.......22.......29.......23.......14..........3.......95

2001-02.....0.........4........11........15........16........11...........2.......59

2000-01.....0..........7.......28.......25.......19.........13..........0.......92

1999-00.....0.........3.......16........23.......21..........4..........1........68

1998-99.....0.........3.......14........22.......15.........11..........0.......65

1997-98.....1.........10.......18........14.......12.........12..........0.......67

1996-97.....0........15.......13........26.......16.........16..........2.......88

1995-96.....0.......16.......28.......28........18.........17..........0......107

1994-95.....0.........5.......13.......19........24..........6..........3.......70

1993-94.....0.........4.......15.......28.......25.........12..........0.......84

1992-93.....0.........5.......14.......20.......24.........15..........0.......78

1991-92.....0.........5.......18........19.......19..........17..........2.......80

1990-91.....0.........2.......13.......23.......16..........10.........0.......64

1989-90.....0.........9.......31.......17........16..........11..........1.......85

1988-89.....1..........2.......24.......19.......22........15..........0.......83

1987-88.....0.........5........15.......24.......24.......13..........0.......81

1986-87.....0.........6........16.......25.......28.......14...........1.......90

1985-86.....0.........0.......23.......25.......23.......12..........0.......83

1984-85.....0.........9.......14.......29.......21........13..........1.......87

1983-84.....0.........2.......18.......27........12........15..........0.......74

1982-83.....1..........9.......12.......20........19.........7..........0.......68

1981-82.....1..........6.......22.......28.......19........10..........7.......93

1980-81.....0........10.......24.......29.......16........16..........1.......96

1979-80.....0.........2.......15........25.......24.......14.........3.......83

1978-79.....0.........4.......19........20.......22.........9.........1.......75

1977-78.....0.........7.......23.......28.......28........13.........1.....100

1976-77.....3........17.......27.......31........19...........8........3.....108

1975-76.....2..........1.......21.......29.......16.........13........2.......84

1974-75.....3.........8.......16........18.......17.........16.........9.......87

1973-74.....0.........2.......16........19.......25........11.........1.......74

1972-73.....1..........9........9........18.......19..........2........0.......58

1971-72.....0.........5.......11........21........25........16........4.......82

1970-71.....0.........4.......20.......28.......15.........10........0.......77

1969-70.....2.........9.......26.......30.......24.......14........2.....107

1968-69.....0.........2.......27.......23.......23.......20........1.......96

1967-68.....0........12.......15.......25.......25.......12.........1.......90

1966-67......1..........5.......21.......20.......25.......16.........1.......89

1965-66.....2.........7........18.......24.......21........13.........1.......85

1964-65.....0.........5.......19.......28.......22........12.........1.......87

1963-64.....0.........3.......27.......20.......26........13........4.......93

1962-63......1.........3.......23.......25.......26.......12.........1.......91

1961-62......0.........6.......23.......27.......23.......12.........1.......92

1960-61......0.........4.......28.......28.......15.......12.........0.......87

1959-60.....0.........7........18.......24.......24.......25.........1.......99

1958-59.....0.........5.......27.......25.......24.......18.........0.......89

1957-58.....0.........6........16.......24.......23.........9.........1.......79

1956-57.....0........12........14.......29.......22.......10.........3.......90

1955-56.....0.........8........27.......27.......19.......20.........3.....104

the 2/14/1914 storm...the beginning of one of the greatest three week periods of winter weather in NYC...9-12" of snow and sleet...

1914 from the brooklyn eagle...

http://fultonhistory...cale - 1448.pdf

http://fultonhistory...cale - 1449.pdf

1914 from the NY Tribune...

http://chroniclingam...-14/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingam...-14/ed-1/seq-2/

a week later...

New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, February 21, 1899, Page 14, Image 14 « Chronicling America « Library of Congress (loc.gov)