Tim from Springfield (IL)

Just saw in today's St. Louis Post Dispatch that Fox 2 in STL is predicting 80 degrees for high in the St. Louis area on Tuesday. I am going to go on a limb and predict that at least one point in the immediate St. Louis area will not only surpass 80 on Tuesday, but have at least a 90 degree heat index for a time as well. On Feb. 27.

Nothing right know AFAIK but about an hour or so ago the west part of the ILX CWA, west of Springfield, got some appetizers for tomorrow's event (if anything for our area). There were at least a couple Severe thunderstorm warnings SSW of Jacksonville, IL. If the current cell holds SPI is in play for at least a strong storm in the next hour or so. Could SPC's 01z outlook extend the marginal farther east into at least Central and Western Illinois?

Although CIPS's analogs only go back to 1979, could the 12/18/1957 outbreak be a comparable analog to today's threat? That included an F4 in Murphysboro, IL and an F5 in Perry County. However, the bulk of that outbreak was late afternoon and early evening; as opposed to the entirely nocturnal threat tonight (ILX is timing spotter activation for 7PM-3AM tonight and early tomorrow morning. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_sequence_of_December_18–20,_1957

If it's OK, I think tomorrow's severe and heavy rain threats now warrants its own thread. Will be interesting to see this afternoon's Day 2 Update. Wouldn't be surprised if most of MO eventually goes MDT tomorrow. Overlooked in the midst of tomorrow's ENH for MO and W IL (with hatched TOR possibilities in C/S MO) is that the same areas may get an early start on the severe tonight into early tomorrow. Marginal from Springfield, IL westward for tonight with Slight in the north half of MO into Eastern KS: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Threat may continue into Monday for the far eastern portion of the sub. Slight for S OH with marginal extending south and east: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

I suggest a separate thread for today's action and tommorrow's ENH/hatched wind right on the 1-year anniversary of 8/10/20. Tornado with "definite rotation" confirmed near Ohio, IL (north of Princeton): PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 611 PM CDT MON AUG 9 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0603 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 E OHIO 41.56N 89.42W 08/09/2021 BUREAU IL TRAINED SPOTTER DEFINITE ROTATION.

I would probably recommend that today's ongoing storms and the Tuesday-Wednesday threats be made a separate thread\ Hoping everyone is staying safe tonight Hard to believe the exact same areas being tonight and under the gun again tomorrow were the same areas hit 1 year ago tomorrow (8/10/20)

With the Atlantic hurricane season now expected to have at least 25 named storms, and the heat wave earlier this summer in Siberia, is it just me or does anyone else think that COVID-19 (the virus itself and the effects) might actually be altering the weather this year? This article thinks so and is using the early Arctic ice melt as an example: https://news.mongabay.com/2020/06/climate-conundrum-could-covid-19-be-linked-to-early-arctic-ice-melt/

And another D0 parked directly over St. Louis city and County, and most of St. Charles County, MO. Plus between Detroit and Toledo, and in western IA and western KY. Also a large D1 in Minnesota.

Not even a marginal risk in this area and the pulse-type storms are already spawning a mini-severe outbreak in central IL. TOG southwest of Taylorville, IL. Decatur in crosshairs if it continues on its path: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Lincoln IL 615 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020 The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Christian County in central Illinois... * Until 645 PM CDT. * At 614 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Harvel, or 5 miles southwest of Morrisonville, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * The tornado will be near... Morrisonville around 625 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Palmer.

I've already started a thread encompassing tomorrow's severe weather (plus in case tonight's marginal in W IL/E IA ramps up) through this weekend's heavy rain threat as the front stalls:

I took the plunge and started a thread for tonight thru Wednesday's possible severe action in parts of the sub:

I went ahead and started a new thread for the late-week threats here in the sub, especially what may be the main event Saturday: