ChescoWx

Low this AM was 33.1 (WXSIM had 33.9) NWS had 29 For the month we are still 0.7 degrees above normal - looking ahead a pretty good shot at finishing the month below normal temp wise....this would be the 1st below normal month since November 2019 and only our 8th below normal month in the last 30 months!!

Thanks Greenskeeper! The heat island certainly skews the data warmer in data from the major city airport sites

Hey guys, So I thought I would analyze the last 13 decades back to the 1890's to see if the first quarter winter months (January-March) outside of the Philadelphia heat island in the more rural areas of the Philadelphia suburbs during the peak winter months of January through March have shown any signs of warming or cooling or more or less snowfall. Keep in mind snowfall amounts are not seasonal totals only January through March totals. Below is a chart with the analysis of the data. Of interest our most recent complete decade from 2010-2019 was the coldest first quarter since the 1980's! I did not expect to see that!! The warmest Q1 decade was the 1930's with the coldest being the 1970's. The snowiest was the 1890's followed closely by our most recent complete decade of the 2010's. Overall not surprisingly there appears to be no significant Q1 warming evident outside of the urban heat island impact in SE PA...just typical variability and expected cyclical trends. Snowfall appears to have a stronger cyclical signal with a general fall in snowfall totals from the turn of the 20th century...reaching a low point in the 1930-1950 period with a gradual increase in snowfall through our most recent decade of the 2010's. If I am reading the tea leaves correctly based on cyclical weather I suspect we could be entering a period of declining snowfall over the next 5 decades through the 2060's....with snowfall amounts beginning to climb again starting in the 2070's. Our most recent winter season of 2019/20 may be a sign of the seasons to come as our 5.8" of snow in Chester County PA this season was our 3rd lowest total in history. If these historical trends are indeed cyclical....for many on this forum over 30 years old who love snow - you may be in for some tough sledding (meaning relative to our most recent decade little snow) for the rest of your lives....for the younger folks born since the turn of the century you might at least begin to see snowfall increases as you reach your social security (if it still exists) age in the 2070's.

We are now 0.8" below normal for April Snow and only 30.7" below our seasonal total - at least rainfall wise with our 0.18" today we are not 0.95" above normal for April to date and up to 15.41" of w.e. this year which is 1.97" above normal.

Hey guys - a non-weather topic as we all miss live sports during these crazy days I saw an article by David Murphy (Inquirer) where he was trying to find ways to "make baseball more watchable with a potential shortened season being discussed" as he opined that most people find baseball boring to watch on TV and are not interested in watching. Now, I know a lot of folks may indeed find it boring....but his statement made me go back and look at the facts regarding Philadelphia's viewing habits when it comes to live sports on TV available multiple times a week during the season. I am not including the Eagles as with it only on TV once a week it is not comparable. I found the attached year end review of 2019 viewership on NBC Sports Philadelphia (the #1 cable network in Philadelphia). The facts say the Philadelphia area indeed finds baseball to be their favorite sport to watch on TV by a large margin over the other 2 major sports. Phillies games average well above both the Sixers in basketball and the Flyers in hockey for average live game viewership. This baseball ratings despite baseball being having twice as many games available to watch during the season. In 2019 the Phillies averaged over 30% more viewers per game than the Sixers and a whopping 2x as many viewers as Flyers game viewership. In fact the Top 5 live games on the network were all Phillies games and for those that stream games the top 4 in the top 5 were Phillies games with only the Sixers cracking the top 5.https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/nbc-sports-philadelphia/nbc-sports-philadelphia-most-watched-cable-network-2019

Up to 2.39" storm total and 2.36" today so far with more rain incoming. When the WXSIM had 3+ inches of rain forecast here 4 days ago I kind of doubted it....high wind gust here has been 23mph while down the shore in Sea Isle City top wind gust so far has been 53mph

1.95" of rain so far in NW Chester County PA here in East Nantmeal Twp. this sets a new rainfall record for today (1894-Present) of 1.92" so far today breaking the old record of 1.30" set in 1994. High wind gust so far 23mph

Big temperature inversion across the area this AM with low spots like Marsh Creek a couple miles south but at 350ft reporting an AM low of 28.7 - while here at 685ft was 11.1 degrees warmer at 39.8 for our low temp

Hey guys, Thought I would upload a video of a forecast I made with the WXSIM weather simulator program. Hope you like it. Questions and comments are welcome! Thanks! Paul https://youtu.be/PRfENtnFjI8

Do you think the sea breeze front passed through Sea Isle City in the last 27 min? 1st column is wind direction - 4th column humidity (going up quick as temp falls) and last column Temp

Some vivid lightning and rolling thunder during the 230am hour overnight with 0.47" of rain MTD now at 0.49" (0.45") below normal with YTD rainfall now at 12.59" or 0.57" above normal. More rain on the way with our active pattern over the next week or so - Good news for our Township farmers who are busy in the fields!

Sea breeze front showing up nicely on radar - temp has been falling steadily at the beach in Sea Isle City - while here in the soaring peaks of the Welsh Mountain anticline we are 13 degrees warmer....beauty of a day!

A beautiful couple of days on tap today and tomorrow get out and enjoy it! Looking forward to getting the kids out of the house! Today is the 1st day this month that has a high temp above the normal for the day. Record high for today is 77.7 back in 2010 with the record low at 21.0 from 1995. Also 3" of snow fell on this date in 1898 here in Chester County PA

yes!!! better than mine even now!!

After today's dreary day Chester County PA we will finish with our 10th warmest (46.2) average monthly temperature for March since records began in 1894. Of note 4 of the 5 warmest March's on record happened before 1950 back - back when we had a warmer March climo....the top 5 are below: 1921 - 51.5 1945 - 51.3 2012 - 49.5 1903 - 48.4 1946 - 48.0

Your lawn looked mighty green even then....what a non-winter this was!!

1.63" of rain yesterday while significant nowhere near our daily record of 2.26" set back in 1932 Monthly rainfall now stands at 4.87" (+1.13" above normal) YTD precipitation stands at 12.03" (+1.47" above normal) Snowfall 5.8" - 29.9" below normal through today.....

Light spring snow here in NW Chester County PA temp at 35.7

WXSIM sees plenty of rain on the way over the next week in NW Chesco and even some snow above 650 ft...but no more than a slushy coating before more chilly rain during the day on Monday

Iceman - much different story out here in the nearby NW Philly burbs where we have had 1.18" of rain in the last 5 days. With our MTD rainfall now at 2.63" which is .06" above normal and YTD rainfall now stands at 9.79" which is 0.40" above normal - no dryness here at all..

Record hi elevation record high temp today in Western Chester County PA with our high of 76.6 beating the old record of 72.6 back in 2012....but well behind the valley record of 83 set back in 1945. Much chillier over the weekend and maybe 2 chances of accumulating snow above 600 ft over the next 10 days with 1st shot by Monday AM

East Nantmeal PA obs 0.94" since midnight / 0.09 yesterday MTD precip stands at 2.58" +0.14" above normal YTD precip is 9.74" which is 0.48" above normal

Thanks for all of the email requests!!!! Please confirm your receipt of the presentation via email....It is clearly a slow weather time!! LOL!! If anyone else is interested in viewing the entire presentation on this forum... just send me your email address via the email on my website or send me a PM here with your email and I will send you the "full deck" of 24 slides - apologies again to those that noticed my website is not quite as current as the data and analysis I have in the presentation deck! My full time job clearly gets in the way of this "hobby"!!! Thanks again for your interest!! Paul