snowfan

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m looking for a river in Egypt…what’s it called again. 

If there was anything incorrect in my post, feel free to state your position. 

4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Well I’m old enough to get my license (I’m too scared to drive though) but not an adult yet. Putting me at the fun spot where the past 7 years of nothing winters makes up my memory of winters! That’s why I like PSU so much because he doesn’t sugarcoat the shit winters I’ve seen my whole life, you need to see our new climo for what it is not what it was. 

I’m not anywhere close to 30 so what happened in 2002 doesnt matter much to me personally 

On the bright side, you’ve lived through our snowiest winter ever (to date) and not far removed from a 3 yr stretch where Dulles (closest to you?) averaged 30”. That’s not too common. 

8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Nice that’s true for everyone else, just another thing robbed from my generation … that said if we’re talking about climate changes for my future there’s a lot more pressing issues than decreased snowfall

Damn. How young are you? BWIs current 10 year average is 16.7”, which is certainly not the lowest 10 yr avg in its reporting history. 10 year stretches in the 40/50s, 70s, 80s/90s all had lower averages. 

219 just south of Thomas this morning.

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Funny no one complained when I used long range guidance in my analysis a few weeks ago because it looked great and I was predicting a lot of snow.  No one complained I was being repetitive when I said how great everything looked every run!

But now it’s a problem when it looks awful. My analysis is exactly the same. Some just like it when it favors snow and hate it when it doesn’t. 

Maybe your analysis was incorrect.

1.6” overnight in Canaan. 40.3” on the season. Looks like a break heading into tomorrow and then another spit of snow overnight Sunday with another few inches possible.

4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Has anyone ever known someone in their life who no matter what you say they almost always tend to have a counter point? They simply cannot accept what another person is saying as correct or accurate they ALWAYS need to interject their point of view in a countering way. It's both fascinating and infuriating especially when you call them on it their response is always the same....I'll let you fill in that blank.

Bro, if you’re going to question me, use the thread that I created for any such discussion 

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We should take all the comments regarding our feelings towards the pattern to banter or my “will it ever snow” thread. I didn’t mean to start this bickering. I was trying to point out what our snowy patterns look like and what does and doesn’t work if we want a 25” plus season. I didn’t mean to start a debate about how we feel about that or what is or isn’t realistic expectations. I’m interested in that debate too but it doesn’t belong here. 

It just seems like you keep coming up with different ways of repeatedly writing the same general thing……big snowfall/aa snowfall seasons are less frequent now than in the past. And I don’t see many people on here arguing that overall sentiment. What value comes from repeating it over and over?

That post was far too long to quote. Why start with the 57-58 season for the analysis of seasons with >= 25” with the statement that these winters used to happen regularly?

The 57-58 season just so happens to be the beginning of arguably our most prolific period of seasonal snowfall on record at BWI. In fact, BWI reported 7 seasons of >= 25” snowfall in the 10 year period starting with 57-58 with an average over 30”. In the decade prior, it didn’t happen once. Why was that 10 year stretch left out of the analysis?

Just now, stormtracker said:

I think we should keep it all together until a specific threat consistently shows up?  I’m open to the idea tho. 

This is the way to go. 

2 hours ago, AlexD1990 said:

This hobby used to be fun.

It still for those that know and accept what our climo is. 

3 hours ago, Ji said:

So the truth is…..deep down…no one thought this winter would be like this so far

The vision was

A cold late November early December with a snow window

A mid month warmup but not bad +2 at the worst but the pattern would be changing by Dec 20

Then our best chance for our white Christmas in years

A chance for a winter storm late December early January with the best of our Nino winter still ahead of us

40 inch winter on the way

In 61 years of reporting, Dulles has 8 seasons with >= 40”. You don’t just snap your fingers and get a 40 incher. You live closest to Dulles of the 3 major reporting stations so I’m using it in this example.

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

It’s snowed twice since 2016. You gojng to blame psu for the health of the board? You think Ian and usedrobe are gonna be snowier?

I see what you did there, Ji…..

The entire LR thread now revolves around the posts of one person, unfortunately. That’s really unhealthy for the sub. Missing the days with old regulars like Ian, usedtobe, etc. 

8 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Currently 28 and woke up to a dusting of snow on the deck/roof/car.  Forecast calling for 2-3” of upslope through Sunday AM.  Hopefully the snow showers and colder temps this weekend can help Canaan/Wisp salvage the rest of the holiday period.

Should help make things feel more festive. 

8 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

This is the best the GEFS has looked for thr 7th I do believe. 

Just gotta hope there's enough cold air around.

The suite of op guidance at range isn’t far off for temps…..GFS being the warmest. Canadian is by far the coldest but the storm is suppressed and never gets north of the VA/NC line.

42 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Is that not a typical Niño year around here anyways?

Historically, El Niño winters result in above average snowfall ~50% of the time for the major reporting stations in the DMV. A boom winter isn’t a given despite what you may read. Even some moderate to strong Ninos result in crap winters, but we all drool over the thoughts of an 09/10 repeat, which was a moderate Nino. 

17 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Sounds like we're punting most of January if we don't score something in the first 10 days lol

Worst hobby ever

At least the first 1-2 weeks. Source region is crap. Hopefully that changes after MLK Day. 

18 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm out. Enjoy the false promises in the long range. I was hoping I'd be wrong and we'd get snow this winter, but it's obvious there's no chance. I still hope I'm wrong and get mercilessly bump trolled in a few weeks, but we're making an honest run at a winter as bad as last year. PSU was right, our snow climo is forever screwed.

lol. Giving PSU way too much credit. Folks need to stop worshiping him. 

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Is this a bad look on the 18z GEFS?

This is the look on the 18z GFS operational at h5, same time. Apparently bad though. Some of you need to do better, or stay in the damn panic thread and moan. 

 

No, not bad. But the surface….verbatim….is meh for now. Emphasis on for now. 

9 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I mean, come on. We don't think it was a crap run. We know it was a crap run. Like you said, it is just one run of the op so it's not a big deal. That said, I am starting to wonder a bit about whether the first two weeks of January are going to pan out like we thought or not. It's fine for now with the crappy op runs because the period of interest is really probably still in the 10-15 day range, but we flip the calendar to 2024 come Monday. If we don't start seeing some op runs show something come early next week, it's probably time to wonder if this period isn't toast.

I also remember last year how the op never really showed much but the ensembles always seemed to keep hope alive, and we all know how that turned out. Could the same thing be happening again?

Two things can be correct….1) the next 1-2 weeks may be boring and 2) there is still plenty of winter left. 

18z GFS is pretty much a dud for the majority of the lower 48 thru the first week of January. 

If anyone is seeking out excellent skiing conditions, Alyeska is nearing 350” on the season. It’s another excellent snow season in Alaska. 
 

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

Interesting the lowest wind chill on that scale is -100.   How often does that happen?  

Not often. It’s rare. Last winter, Mt Washington in NH recorded a wind chill below -108 F. The air temp was -47 F with winds over 100mph. 

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Meh. It would just be white rain anyways. The following week we have some manageable temps at least. 

I believe he’s referring to those west of the Allegheny front.