snowfan

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

lol nice self portrait. 

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm thinking they use 91-20 averages for one. Let's see where we're at on the 20th, I bet most places in the eastern US will have above average temps

58 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Those of you with subscriptions, please don't just mention a result and leave. Please share visual details with us for better or worse. These forums need the data.

I accept Venmo, Zelle or gift cards. 

Large swath of 1”+ liq equivalent. 
 

4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

never fear the 18z gfs just saved the day gotta love those trends from 12z to 18z

0Z will send everyone into a night of sleepless anxiety. 

5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

And suddenly we have people saying that "this was always going to be marginal for the area" and "this was never  setup in which the region would score" despite plenty of guidance showing otherwise.

Drives me f'ing bonkers.

Speaking strictly of temps….the air mass has been marginal on guidance for some time. 

Of course guidance will change, but this was always going to be a storm running into a marginal air mass. Folks don’t pay attention.

We all know the drill. Know your local snow climo to avoid heartbreak. WPC probs below for > .25” frozen equivalent.
 

Definitely no shortage of precip. 
 

lol. Yes. Everyone always waited for Matt to post the euro at some ungodly hour. I may have even set an alarm a few times just to check the euro. The hobby is bad addiction at times. 

For anyone thinking of chasing this next storm to the mountains, the Canaan resort hotel and the lodge at blackwater falls state park in Davis have availability for the weekend. Blackwater falls lodge is very reasonable and the park is gorgeous in the snow. Easy access to timberline, Canaan, and whitegrass (if cross country or snowshoeing is your thing).

Those were the good ole days. Still have fond memories of enjoying the 09/10 winter on eastern and that crew.

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Psu will not do a 3-6 under any circumstance in a Nino

If you were looking down from your mountain top chalet prone to deep winter conditions, would you settle?

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

Bills now can get to a 2/3 seed, right? If they beat Miami next week they take the division and move into a spot where Baltimore would avoid them until an AFC title game?

Yep. If they beat Miami, they get the #2 seed and are then on the opposite end of the bracket from the Ravens. 

5 minutes ago, MacChump said:

Barring injuries sure seems like a ravens-niners SB is inevitable…I’d take the ravens at this point to win pretty easily

A non zero chance the Ravens host the Bills in three weeks. When the Bills are on, they’re tough to beat and Allen is a PITA when he doesn’t make dumb mistakes. They’ve won 5 of 6 and are trending in the right direction. 

Wintry in Canaan. 
 

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Watching football at a bar on the lake with snow falling. Good way to spend my 40th. 

Happy Birthday!

Next round of snow for the mountains kicks in today. Similar amounts expected in WV for Canaan and Snowshoe. 

We’ve reached the point in the winter season where orographic upslope enhancement for a 950 ft hill in Carroll County is being discussed. An annual tradition. Bow down to the mountain top.

Coffee lovers….any roasters in the general DMV area you recommend? And any specific roasts worth seeking out? I grind my own beans, so whole bean is preferred. 
 

a recent find that I really liked was the holiday roast from Chesapeake bay roasters based in crofton. Another favorite is the Tanzania Peaberry from Baltimore Coffee Co. 

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

As a penn state fan, it’s just remarkable how bad Franklin and Allar are in big games. 

Season ticket holder since 2005 checking in. The opt outs today didn’t help on D, but the lack of a functioning offense in big games in recent years is troubling. There’s also no significant talent at the WR position right now making it even tougher on a “young” QB. I have hope for next year, but that’s really riding on the incoming offensive coordinator changing things up and hopefully some improvement at WR. With the expanded playoff starting next season, Franklin really needs to make it in to keep the fan base on board.

ETA: that’s not to say Franklin hasn’t had success. Winning the Rose, Cotton and Fiesta bowls in recent years was great. Just seems like he’s been teetering on that good/great line and cannot get over the hump.

Please put him on a pitch count. 

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But you’re acting as if more isn’t an option. I’m not choosing nothing over some 3” storm. I’m saying this year has more potential than that and we shouldn’t settle.  It’s a -QBO, non east based Nino during an ascending solar cycle. That’s the freaking holy grail!  This setup might come along once every 10-15 years!  We’re facing another Nina cycle soon!  This very well might be our only only chance at an above avg snowfall season for a while. Why should we call uncle and settle for more scraps?  I don’t give up so easily. 

We know. You don’t need to keep repeating yourself. That’s what so many people keep trying to convey to you and you refuse to listen. 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Snowfall is chaotic and can be influenced by shorter and longer term cyclical patterns. If you cherry pick any one shorter scale time period it can be made to appear stochastic. But if you pull back and run the data through a regression the accurate picture is clear and conclusive. 
 

For example, if you compare a past hostile long wave regime like the early 1970s to a favorable one like the 2000s you can erroneously make it look like snowfall was increasing!  But if you compare that favorable regime in the 2000s to previous comparable patterns you see that while it was good it wasn’t as good. Inversely if you compare the hostile regime we are in now to the most similar comparable periods in the past you will see while those were bad this is worse.

So there was nothing incorrect in my post? You just felt it necessary to make a subtle reference to climate change as you typically do. 
 

carry on everyone.